F Dominicus Blog

A politically incorrect blog about matters of money, government, bureaucracy, freedom and sometimes something else.

May 2010 - Posts

bread and circuses
Well that's what the german deledefs seem to prefer. As some of you might have heard a german "frollein" has won the European song contest. Now the polticians declare her a "great" german figurehead. But you know, if you get instrumented from Politicians.... The other things which have happened are not that joyful. Now the discussion starts abot tax raising, VAT raising etc. Everything (but currently not education according ot our first deledef) has to expect cuts. Well I bet everyone will find enough reasons why his/her resort should be excempted. So my bet is: - VAT will raise (they will call it harmonizing with other EU countries (another small reminder the last VAT raise vom 16 to 19% has just been undertaken around 3 years ago. It has resulted in 23 Billion more "income" and it was supposed to be used for paying back the immense debts. Well yo can imagine what they are going to take now and "argument" the same way. If you feel it sucks, well you're not alone with that feeling.... - one could imagine a time-limited extra tax like we have to "supporting" east Germany since well now nearly 20 years. I bet a tax for "supporting" the EUR is not that impossible - I expect some new sort of property tax, of course because the speculants are guilty Let us assume another 4 % more VAT then we're talking about roughy 40 Billion more Euros (but just take into account this year new debts were higher as 80 billions)... So it would not even be enough to stop making new debts.. so much about solidity There will be other raisings, which are not that obvious. I doubt that many subsidies will get cut, if yes it will be some for parents. They know quite well that parents, work even harder to not let their children "suffer". Exceptions just confirm this rules.... Well if you now something from the finanical toture catalogue, you surely find other "proper" actions.....
After a while
I'm back. But well what has changed really. Nothing which could be considered an improvement. The raid is on it's way. Laws written just 10 years ago broken be deledefs. And so on. Money still is fiat-money and they try to drown the EU and US with even more cheap money. The FDP has given up any idea of liberalism, and the most liberals have stepped down from their positions. Just 3 of the FPDler have voted against or not voted at (all, because of support for the "party") breaking laws. Astonishingly enough the only other votes against, breaking laws were caste by the "Linke". Well this is the only "small" suprise, just as long as you see it was against the "capitalistic parties". Well I guess they would not hesittate to sign the next compulsory acquisition for banks or other "large" corporations. Or maybe they like to re-establish nationally-owned enterprises. Or any "nicecities" one is used to in dictatorhips. Maybe this time they would be just a bit more clever and "let" people own their own stuff, but with "appropriate" taxes. Why not extra taxes as e.g they have for fuel (> 75 %)... I'm quite sure our other parties like CDU, SDP, Greens, etc will look for such kind of "saving". Time has taught, that expecting anything good from politicians (sorry deledefs) is a very stupid move. So what should one write any longer, the things were written down in the past, they were rewritten in the late past and the might get rewritten in the future. But those for whom it applied will go on with "their" way. It will be the road to perdition, burglary, black-mailing, more laws to punish the still producing work-forces.... Yes, you got it. I'm very pessimistic about the learning ability of our deledefs. They will do their best and beyond to drive us all back into misery. And if you just look into recent history you'll see, such kind of "disruptions" won't get away without violence. War is not unlikly, actually we're in war. It's politican and bureaucrats against every soul longing for freedom. Therfor I just can ask you again to harm the current governements, especially in the EU, and US as much as you possibly can. Don't exaggerate or the will simply jail you, use the last "standing" laws as best as you can. Just start supporting "freedom" fighters....
where's the trust?
To the actions of politicians. (well deledefs). It sems to vanish like snow in the sun. Just imagine the last few weeks. The trouble started with Greece beeing suspected not beeing able to pay for their debts any longer. Well so far so "bad", but than the deledefs really started going wild. At first they "were thinking abou 22 Billion Euros, a bit later short over Billion Mrd or so and not even a week later 750 billion. Just to remind you. The total debt of the EU countries is 8.7 trillion. And there the so called "shadow budgets", which well at least we Germans have and I bet the French to not fare better. Somwhere somone has written a 1000 points plumb of the Dow "destroys" one trillion of "wealtch". Well that's just 10 % of the dow jone indes. So to pay all the debts of the EU is comparable to "Dow " to loose 8700 points or 80-90 %. Imagine that a dow at 0 ist not low enough for paying all the debts of the US. Now how can anyone with a little knowledge about figures, go on and pile up even higher debts? This is so ridicolous. So to my question above. The trust is gone and rightly so. We normal people will not be able to breath or to raise children with such criminals. The laws "save" the sorry bastards, having to pay for their crimes. Every law which was established to save us from the greed ot the inproductive elements, are getting abolished more and more. Contracts are broken, and the only think we here. "there is no alternative". There is no reason left to trust any current leading politician. You can neither trust any of our ministers, any of the french ministers you can not trust Obama administration in any way. Let's hope for America that the Tea-party will be a succes. Let's hope for Europe to get our states back from the polticians or bureaucrats. The best way to end this misery is, let's get back money with value. I suggest puttin all politicians into one playe, where the have to grow their own food. Make very good fences around them and let's go on without them. Help end the central banks, fight for your rights, don't hesitate to harm the current governements wherever and in whatever way you can..... Support only those which show respect of your and your property. Say no to black-mailing, avoid paying taxes as much as you legally can. Write to ever politician and claim your base human rights. If they vote against you over and over again, let them fall. Don't trust the Politicians and Administrations any longer, they have not deserved it in any way any longer.....
something stupid from Germany
Well it may not suprise you, but our deledes are working on the next stupidity or perfidity. A global tax on financial transactions. You can hear the "mone" laugh and "run"? How big chances are that e.g the USA agree on this. Well how about any other country world-wide. What would be the problem for the rest of bigger money in Germany to emmitgrate? And how many would "forget" about Germany sooner or later? Well they want to hit the "speculants" but those will simply go elsewhere. And who will pay for this in the end. Every single Germany citizen. Suddenly a lot of money and "demand" simply has gone. We're not talking about a few hundred Euros ,but billions of it. How "difficult" is it to open a bank account anywhere in the world? Fortunatly not all countries value "german laws" and or european law, let's hope this will stand the tests of time... I have a suggestion about what you should read (or read again). Do not got but run and fetch "Atlas shrugged". and get a copy of "Human action" from von Mises too. See how Ayn describes this "fights" of bureaucrats. See how the "unproductive" be the nails in the coffin for the others. Let's hope the "productive" find their Shangri-La as they did in Atlast shrugged somewhere in a valley of the Rocky mountains. Let's hope someone find this valley for us.
From NZ
with compliments: http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2010/05/crisis-in-new-zealand-climatology It's very actual as you can see. And it does not shade a good light on the supporters of the man-made climate change. Now if we consider what has happened the last half year in this area. We probably be well advised to distust claims and laws put on us for fighting global warmth. There's one question left. Why has this been upheated that much. How does it come that science has not obeyed their own base of success? could it be because of all this are paid for by mostly governemental organizations? As you can see the route to more "politics" and less "freedom" is nearly universal. Laws have been made and "artificial" markets be established which deal with CO2 emissions. See the last laws in the EU but also in the US the "health care system". It's always less for those beeing productive and more and more for unproductive jobs etc. It's like a mania, we can and will control everything, every aspect ot anyones life. And only the deledes know how to interpret that, they are the "only" ones seeing. And failure is a no-no-no-no-no word for them. If they fail it's just because they still havn't enough power and or bureaucrats. Trial-and-error is the way of science. There is not progress if you do not try anything, there can't be any progress without failure. One can not "decide" that e.g the IT industry comes along, one can not "decide" to create a new product out of thin air without trying what things work and what won't. How large the hybris must be that one believes that having success comes for free? How can one believe that the success of free markets just happens by "accident". How comes the believe that one not working under economic laws knows better about economics, than anyone working under the economic "realities". How comes the believe in academics without economic experience that those "know" how economics work? How comes that so many believe that kind of nonsense?
What we really need
is in first line stable money. Fiat-Geld has proven that it can not cope with it. Well that's not suprise for anyone a little bit interested in "History". If I have the choice between two beliefs than I'd prefer always "the market" over anythin from the deledes. Just one example on how I think markets get it "right" sooner or later. The gold price has "topped" all-times highs expressed in US-$ and EUR. And if you see a long-time chart the raising of the gold price has started in 2006!!!! where obviously a lot of people have recogniced something's wrong. Maybe they've seen the housing bubble starting I don't know. I just started my gold carreer in 2008 after the FmStg and TARP had started. Now since 2008 the prices has doubled. Is it a bubble? Well might be, however it's obvious that the fiat-money bubble was inflated much faster. It seems also that the central banks are intervening to support their Fiat-money. It's one of the surest sign that something is terrible wrong with currencies. Unfortunatly one can expect an alliance of Politicians (deledes) and central banks to do whatever they can to disqualify the gold price. The US helds a lonely record on that. After giving out the bound to gold they "forbid" private ownership of gold. That's one of the most ridicolous laws ever passed to save the "defrauders" from their fate. I'd not be suprises if they come along with something similiar in the not too far future. What can one do against it. Fortunatly there are more free countries as anything in the EU or the US. So it probbably is a very good idea to open an account over there and put something of value in it. The choice which country to prefer is very simple. Those countries which value private ownership the most are the favorites.
A few calculations
Well our German politicians claim that the speculants are the reason for the turmoils around the EUR. Now let us see whether they may be right or wrong. Let us assume the following situation interest rate at 10%, time-frame 1 year (to avoid compounded interest) Now let us assume the probability on not getting back a credit is 10 % (which is extraordinarily high) So if we spend 100 EUR today what will we have in one year. - 100 + 110 * 0.9 = -1 This is well negative, and therfor one would not take that much of a risk Now let's take failure probability of 5% so the calculation is. - 100 + 110 * 0.95 = 4.5 Well that sounds "reasonable" you get en expected return of 4.5. When would you consiser spending the 100 whatever? Well in case that you get "more" back. Now let's see what this means to bonds of Greece. The 10 % is currently a number which the Greece has to offer. So currently the markets think that Greece will not pay with around 10% probability. Now what if the speculant thinks the likliness on failure is around 20% When will he/she accept this rate? - 100 + x * 0.8 = 5 So x has to be 118.75 or 18.75 % interest rate. Well Greece will not ever offer this much interest so there must be another way. We know hat Greece will have to pay back 100 % of the value of a bond. So we can write: - x + 100 * 0.8 = 5 or -x = 5 - 100 * 0.8 x = 75 So the speculant is just willing to buy bonds if the course is that low. You can see high risks inevitable ask for high interest and/or low prices. Now the figure changes unexpectetly.The speculants "hope" that the EU bails out the Greeks. Suddenly the 75 course is very tempting, because it's high income with "low risk". That's what every speculant is dreaming of. So in fact while the other EU states offer this credits to Greece the speculants do make a good surplus. Now is that a fault of speculants? Who has enforced the governements to offer the credits? No one, so the politicans action to back up the Greeks will lead to a "victory of the speculants". So it's the other way round it's not the speculants will earn big while Greece fails, no it's the speculants earn big because of "stupid" and very doubtful (legal) actions of the political leaders. Now it's getting really absurd. One would not buy any bonds from Greece, but the politcians say. Come on people please buy the bonds we have to help the Greeks. So the politicans are asking the to help them back up their stupidity and raids. I can not say how distasteful that is. The whole economic reasoning is lead ad absurdum. In fact defrauding is right, honesty is wrong. Laws are made to save the defrauders and enforce the costs of this action to the honest people.
speculation the EU way
Well as written before the politician (sorry deledes) do blame he speculant. Well I wonder what this guys have done to envforce the EU and US to pile up debt as high as roughly around 25 000 000 000 000 US-$. How did they do it? I really want to know. I'd add a few extra trillions. Well no I guess it is not possible. It's just "democratic" decisions to live out ouf any "economic" bound. Howerver bounds are not without a reason bounds. You sooner or later have to stay within their borders. Or you will be brought back by "reality". The deledes ability to ignore reality is just "miracolous". Or simply "stupid", feel free to choose. How can we get rid of this maniacs. Votes won't help and so there must a another way to protect "normal people" How about- - ending the central banks - ending the fractional reserve system - best abolish the central banks (no rendor of last resort no safety net for defrauders - prohibit states to issue bonds. You do not need any other means for it, and suddenly this kind of probems simply vanish. But of course it means less power fo deledes and that obviously a double no-no.
Has the "Endkampf" begun?
I wonder if we see the last tries for the social-democratic parties? Just imagine the following two numbers: 8 700 000 000 000 14 000 000 000 000 That are the debts of the EU and the US. Both are currently riding on "experts" like Krugman, which say Inflation is not a problem I just suggest looking up hyprinflations in the last 60 years. Politicians seem to be unwilling or blank stupid to not learn such things from history. If things break down, the only think which "survives" is free trade. You can not stop it by any means, you can call it black market or whatever, but it's what people do to "survive", and there all "political power " simply stops... As long as we give politican the power over and over and over again to manipulate money, we are asking for a bankupt (more sooner than later). The last european country bankruptcy is now Greece. See what happens over there. Violence, protests etc. That harm was done 99.5 % by Politicians. I propose to think over how such things would be handled in an economic sound environment. It means an end to the "current" leaders and other take over. Things to not de-evaluate completly, there are always things worth something and others pick it up and make money out of it. If you try to "fight" such things, the problems surely pile up higher an higher an higher. The saying. The higher the climb the deeper the fall never ever will be proofed wrong. Sure the EU has probably bought some time, but who can expect that "suddenly" the same in charge will suddenly proceed responsible? I will not say they can not learn, but chances are slim they really do. Do I really have to point out some open questions? - What good has the TARP money done? - What good has the German FmStg done. Now we do not even have to speculate about a few banks, but whole counties and countries. See what' has happened to the 8 larges economy in the world they are bankrupt, by any practical means. See the troubles spots here in Germany, where complete cities go down the drain. This all has to do with "bad economic" behaviour. And what happens? People take their stuff and "go". We have thousands of examples here in Germany where politicians have harmed the people, but still they are there and well it's alway not their fault. It' s the circumstances, the speculator, the other politicians, the stupid people and whatever you can think of but never ever the own stupidity or inaptitude. How can that be suprising if the only thing which can happen is that you won't get re-elected? You get paid nevertheless, you do not have to please customers you just get paid from "the governement". If you looes a few millions, well bad luck but it's not your fault it's the agencies like Goldman Sachs, Young or whatever which have deceived the littel poor politicians. They handle sums in the millions and billions but are not "responsible" they have to follow laws, regulations and if you follow the regulations you never ever can be guilty, can you? We have decoupled the bearing of failure of successs. Just see the last 750 Billion raid in the EU. Greece has lied to the EU, it does not matter. We have laws against taking over debts of other countries in the EU, it does not matter. Now the money was "celebrated" as a big win against speculants. So this was judges as success (well one should be carefulw with victory, Phyruss has put it properly) . If you think German papers just name it "a big raid" well think again. You have to read the Z├╝richer Zeitung, to read a proper comment about this "gamling".... And even the "independent" TV-stations just repeait the "mantra of the politicians" It's the fault of the speculants. Well they do not mean the politicans with that.....
TARP the EU way
Yeah guys. the TARP money has "vanished" like snow in the sun. Nobodoy know cares or ask where it's gone. Now the EU has seen it and though by themselves. What a great thing. Money for nothing and the gigs for free... And voila now it's there the EUR TARP program. Well it's not Troubled Assets Reliefe Program for banks but TMMAR (take my money and run) for defrauders. Greece is the first which will take this money, of course they will not thank the EU for buying them out. No that would be for "normal people", Germany is "enemy" number one and well Germany is the biggest payer (well they pay with debts not even fiat-money, but that's another story) Welll so the start are around 22.4 Billions. Well the "planned tax releaf was 24 Billion. But now the "iron" cancecellor has cancled it. It's not tax relief the next 3 years. It's more important to safe other countrioes and especially the Euro. But how can you save a currency if you devaluate it? I don't know the US has started the big number game and now EU starts their game. Who will went south first? Who will be the winner. Could it be that the Chinese just can't get to sleep because the laugh at us? Could it be that now the Chinese simply buy whatever they can an "extend" their market place? Just see what they do in Africa, the help buiding the infrastructure and get crucial things in return. Germany and the US simply do not get that an burn their money in wars without sense. Yes I think it could be the chinese time. Howerver be cautious to not get in conflict with the Partei..... If the chinese would be clever they'd bound their currency to something of value and soonner or later they will get all the US and EU area stuff for "an apple and an egg".... On the other hand just imagine China starts selling their US-$ Bonds.....They do not even need an apple or an egg, civil war will finish the US and EU and they litereally get it all for "free"... Exaggerations? May be, but just tell me what worth is the FIat money? Indeed nothing.... It's just numbers on a paper.... However just see this numbers 8 700 000 000 000 750 000 000 000 The first is the "total debt" of the EU countries, and the second is the TARP money. It's not even 10% of the "open debt sum". Now tell me something about leverage.... How much worse does it have to get before start improving?
Ayn Rand has "named it!"
Now it's done. Laws so not save non-defrauders but,helps defrauders to accomplish their raids. The US and EU are the first countries with laws, which help criminals. And even best a party supposed to be more liberal than anything els here has say yes to it. From 95 or so just 3 have say no, this has nothing to to with liberalism. Unfortunatly we just know one of the few which has say no. Howerver it also means that nearl 95% of the FDP politicians have not even betray their voters but also their principles. It was not the first time they did so. Fortunatly on Sunday there is a voting in the largestt (population wise) in Germany, let's hope and pray the FDP will have to go. And let's hope they thake the SPD, CDU, Greens, and Linke with them. Let's also hope that the Bundesverfassungsgericht will judge that this is against our "Grundgesetzt". ... If betraying, theft and blackmailing will be "considred" good while done by politicians, than you know " war is near".....
now you even got it black on white
the Raid is on it's way. Only if the Bundesverfassungericht stops this deledefs, things can have a positve turn. My last message about Investors now is all too true. You may make contracts with german governement, but don't count that they will stick to it. If it fits them, they may try to seize it from you. Howerver even in the darkest hours of younger german history, there are politicians and not just thieves. Thos who have named it as it is, defrauding, and which have say no. There ain't much of them, but maybe one day in the future they will be the majority. It will not be the Germany we know. It will be different, but surely better (well it hardly can get get much worse, but maybe they take from the former DDR regime and maybe they will name thos who will try to leave this rat hole as "refuggees of the "republic". Well I really don't know if one can translate "Republikfl├╝chtige" that way. I once liked the EUR, the rules were clear and it seemed the EUR could get more stable as any fiat-money before. But it's was just "wishful-thinking". Fiat money can never have value nor ever will persist. It will always be an instrument to oppression it will alway be a symbol of arbitraryness of politcians. Our deep distrust for "too" much state just gets' s fuelled over and over again. The worst countries currently are the EU, and the US, China, Japan. So there's not much goodness left. And ones knows from history how that things turned out in the end. They always end in some war and misery (if you are lucky you may survive).
Investors be aware
If you invest in the EU or Euro zone be prepard to not just econimic hindrance, expect the worst from politicians. Think of taxes on investments and the like and you may not be suprised. If you feel contract have to be obeyed, then forget this as soon as you make contracts with governement agencies. Be prepared for confiscations also. We did it in Germany in 2009, we socialiczed the HRE. If you think we're talking about Peanuts, well we are currently at around 100 000 000 000 Peanuts and counting, according to a few numbers it seems another 15 000 000 000 are due for the "quality papers" of the Greek governement. Rumours were coming up talking about another 280 000 000 000 help for the "spanish" governement. Which have probably driven down the DAX yesterday at around 2%. If you think deledes have learnef from the Failout Plans, well think again. There is not border in sight which may hold back the politicians to drive Europe down into misery. So are you prepared to loose your money or see it getting burned? If yes, invest in Euro land if not, well take your money and run. You will not find a lot of alternatives,but a few may be there. Have a look at Switzerland, Australie, New Zealand, maybe Canada. I'd avoid the following countries like the plague. Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany, France, Austria and nearly every country related to good ole Europe but also avoid the US. Those mostly have been burried. Do you want your grave there too? They are a little bit further on their way, the fed takes all the papers issued by the governement and filed it under "asset" and because of this assets they can print money, and more money and more. Money needs trust or value, our current currencies mostly havn't anything of it at all. Trust? Well how can you trust someone who just has collected debts the last 50 years? What value has paper? How difficult could it be to print 1 000 000 000 000 bills? Imagine some german experiences. http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Inflation_1914_bis_1923#Banknoten_und_M.C3.BCnzen_der_Hyperinflation I just pick up the "most impressive" number. 4.200.000.000.000,00 that was the price for one US-Dollar in 1923. The largest bank not has been 100 000 000 000 000. It was printed on a sheet of paper, that' all and that's all there is to probably every currency currently. As I asked. What should prevent the next Hperinflation? Our politician aka deledes?
Much trouble ahead
Ok now it's "nearly" done the great Country Pontzi Scheme goes on. The EU will decide (whith high likliness) that 110 MRD new credits will be given to Greece. Germany alone has to "bear" 28 MRD. Interstingly enough the first number has been 8 MRD now within 14 days we get an 350 % increase. Currently Germany has to get new debts to pay for old ones. Now how long can such a thing persist? Ah yes there are treaties which mean. Live within your financial bounds. But they are not even worth the paper they're written on. As a a single person you do not have the slightes chance to go to court for such things. Because of all this I invented (maybe someone else has done it before ) a new term for politicions. In Germany it's delebets, in Englilsh it probably will be DEmotracic LEgitimized DEfrauders. Soo its deledes. I'd prefer to use this term in the future. I'd encourage you to use it also if you seem it fit.