F Dominicus Blog

A politically incorrect blog about matters of money, government, bureaucracy, freedom and sometimes something else.

December 2010 - Posts

2010 from a liberal point of view
Well now this year is nearly done. Let's see what has happened with freedom and responsibility. 1) Obama has got his Obamacare which means force and new bureaucratic hurdles. Shell will be saved by politics... So by all liberal means, this just means freedom was diminished 2) the EU has introduced bailouts for nations. That means written contracts were broken deliberately. So another disaster 3) The central banks have made money cheaper than cheap. If you save money you have lost value (again) All has worked against self-responsibility, the thieves saved themselves with special laws and or have broken them as they like. So one can conclude arbitrariness has grown again. We still have no money of value just more fancy nice confetty, just they (the deledefs) name it "money" It still can get worse in developed country if one sees the judgement about Chodorkowski. It just shows what we can expect. The Deledefs will make more and more laws and breaking them will get punished ever harder the harder the grip on freedom. The newest attacks on freedom will probably driven by 1) Fear 2) Uncertainty 3) Doubt 1) Fear is easy done, just tell the people that while not following the politicians indescribable bad things will happen. Every new terror attack will be instrumented to surrender more and more to those "who" know... 2 is even easier. Just introduce new laws and make them very soft. Nobody will know if one is within its bounds or not . Add the possiblity of "instructions" to it to the bureaucrats than you still can be sure people will get more unsure 3) doubt can be more or easier achieved. If you have uncertainty doubt will raise without further "work". However as a prudent politician you try taking away doubt with just a few words. "We don't have alternatives"... I bet this will be one of the most stressed phrase in the near future. So I'm afraid this year was a disaster for freedom and it surely was against anything just remote connected to liberalism. A few more such years and the breakdown is unavoidable.
to bubble or not to bubble?
this is the question. The Dax is up around 1000 points that are roughly 16,67 %, let's see what the Dow has done: up around 1000 points also that are roughly 9.6%. Well let's see Gold: roughly up 300 EUR from 750 EUR beginning of the year, that are gains of around 40%. Now is Gold a Bubble? Well it very depends on your point of view. Unfortunately neither the FED nor the EZB, show us a graph of the money expansion and so we must deduct it from second sources: http://www.goldreporter.de/wachstumssprung-bei-geldmenge-m3/news/545/ states that M3 grows was beyond 13% in 2004!!. So with all the buying of bonds, one can assume that M3 has grown beyond that limit in 2010. So we never will know really. How much money was generated out of the blue during the last three years and what's the development of the prices. It could be that gold is a bubble, but it seems more likely that money was bubbled much more. So if we just assume a growth of 8% of M3 in 2009, and 2010. We should have seen a raise in the BIP of at least that much. This has not happened, and so the question persists where was this money spend? It seems very likely the distrust to paper-money has driven many people to buy sliver, gold, platinum.

Now we can bet on the next years. There is not strengthening of money policy in view. Bernanke just wanted to buy another few bonds at or around 600 Billions. in the EU the discussion is on to introduce "Euro bonds". That are bonds backed up by the EU, backed up by different countries. This suggests that money supply will be plenty the forthcoming future. So I'd think we see another raise in all kinds of assets. (real ones not that funny junk bonds of any EU country or the US).

Where will this bubble end? Well we have learned in 2008 that there is no one-way street to higher prices. And we all know that even the sky has it's limits. So either the central banks start contracting money or the bubble will burst with a loud bang. I'M very pessimistic that the central banks start acting responsible. I bet they fill follow the lead of the Japanese central bank and government, which now try for more than 10 years printing out there way of their recession. The result is that Japan has the highest rate of debts of all developed countries. And still it does not work. No-one is surprised but the Deledefs and it seem they believe the only way out of debt is collecting more debt..

Well this will not work and if the money bubble will burst, you hopefully have something of real value to trade or pay with. Gold is but one instrument. So I expect an extra raise of the gold price. And I expect it to inflate even stronger the more the central banks try to print us out of this crisis. If the gold prices starts cantering, all bets are off.

I really am curious which country first will draw the correct conclusions. The country which will end this fiat-money madness, will gain everything, people, money wealth. All others will end in misery and this misery has meant war in the past....

The new "way"
in old times we had dictators. Now we are a bit beyond we have the welfare state. Well it's not that much a difference. At first the diverse parties have the saying. In Germany we have 4-5 parties and just two which have come into existence the last 20 or so years. The others all keep "social market" in their names in their Sunday prayers etc. But the all established the most perfidy system in the world and they sell it to us as "without alternative". It's the fractional reserver system and on the top are institutions like the FED, EZB etc. They all do but one thing, stealing money from everyone. You don't believe me. Well then let me ask:: "What's inflation" how comes that a US Dollar from just 100 year or so ago is just worth 4 ct.? It must be that way, well that is what they tell you. But it's no secret they lie openly and not so open. This is still the biggest lie ever invented and hold up. There were times this would be named theft but not since the first world war. From there on we just get fancy colorful paper, no "real" money was seen since.... And because they have win some time. They can buy with self issued money whatever they like and worst, the central banks buy bonds. And well bonds are an asset aren't they? And if you have an asset you surely can print another few colourful notes, don't they? The illusion that it still has some worth buys them time. But in the end we are will pay dearly. but the bureaucrats and politicians. If all will break down and no money will buy you bread, than it's time for them to establish them as the saviors of the world. They will steal it from those having acted responsible. And so it starts again. At first they will see that markets will be allowed to function again, then comes the tax. And then the promised of the land of plenty. build on debts or worthless money we are doomed to accept as real money. And the round of booms and busts will start. The sums will get absurd and they will alway tell you "Oh no problem we CAN control it. Believe them and you will pay not one, not twice but forever. See what you have to pay for and see what you really need, draw your conclusions and be wise enough to not buy any bond from anything related to government.....
It starts with
PC (political correctness), then comes the phase off "the democratic forces" than it goes over to voluntary self-control. Then it's blaming everyone not for one self to be "undemocratic", then comes the end of freedom of press. And from there on it's not a far way to the army of National Peoples Army, then comes war, after war just one thing "persists" the oppressed market. Does it have to be always that harsh. Is it really a good thing to follow this path again and again and again. Germany is currently in phase 2 - 3. The press just writes about some people "fighting" the attacks of the market. Now Hungary is a bit beyond the are on exterminating the press. It's not far away to laws for "Rassehygiene". Maybe it will come the time where you just will see "Arbeit macht frei"... again
Great news .....
for all defrauders or deledefs, the safety chute for the european countries should be made permanent. Yes you know it does not cost a thing. Just any welfare accumulated over time and new playgrounds for laws keeping the bandits safe. Yes it is practical to not have any democratic control, and it's very convenient that European citizens can not sue governments easily. Especially if it comes to such simple things like expecting that laws are for everyone. Well they are just a little bit special for all politicians. I'm really fed up with this rat-pack.
Show your face (the real one)
It's always interesting to see how Deledefs make their "own" kind of reality. Let's take using stolen things for something. We can assume it was illegal to send the docs from the diverse places to wikileak. Now we can see interesting reaction: Those publishing that stuff should be jailed or even better killed. The always start babbling about security of whomever. Who has send the soldiers down to Iraque/Afghanistan. Yes indeed the same persons. It is acceptable to harm someone in the name of some artificial construct like a country, but if information is published about the same mission, than this is an unacceptable risk? Then the very same deldefs accept happily a CD which people supposed not having to pay their (though of "just" taxes). The even have paid for such a CD. The stuff is stolen, but hey it's government. They can use whatever they get to put more pressure on their own citizens well this name is kindly phrased for subject. It's quite interesting, how you can get to such a brain split. Everything coming from government is good, everything else bad? Every one else knows it does not come anything good from government. You get in touch with them, you will have to pay dearly. But hey the saying is. "It's sweet to die for you country". Why don't the Deledefs do us a favor and take this sweeties?
The climate again
well a bad day for nearly every one but bureaucrats and scientists working on the climate warming. For every other there's bad news. Now the raise of the temperature should be limited to 2 ° C. That means despite scientific doubts, believing in what the majority thinks was choosen. It does not matter if it really get's warmer, or if man really is the reason. The message is: "Men is guilty of the warming and warming is good". I should want to mention that in Germany there was a big discussion about dieing forests. Well Germany still has it's forests and despite anything else they are growing, and the surely will grow more if there will be less Germans (or people living here). Another thing quite recently. the ADAC (germans largest automobile club) has found out that the so called "Feinstaubplakette" ( respirable dust) has not made a difference. In cities with zones the air, where just certain cars are allowed to enter, were not better than in other cities. But it has cost every car owner between 5-10 EUR. It seems we have not sunk enough money into your banks now a few trillion, whatever funny currency name you can think of, play field. What will happen if the temperature will still rais above the 2 ° C. Will they send out the army to kill a few CO2 emittenters? Maybe starting with animals but happily accepting a few dead men as collateral damage? So in the sense of "We have no choice?"
Inflating new bubbles
Unfortunately nothing was learned. As you may have registered the stock markets are going up. Well the suprise is not that large. There is so much funny mulitcolored paper available. Once it was known as curreny but it's does not have any worth. So Gold is up over 80% in two years. And the stock have gained nearly as much. Currently you can even use this funny paper too buy houses for quite less of it. That bubble has burst around 2 years or so ago. Now the next bubble is raising, maybe it's time to get rid of as much of this colorul paper as possible and take something no-one can raise artificially (at least not to a large extent). I propose investing in land. See that it's fertile. The day will come where you'll have to pay too much colorful paper to get full. How it will come to that day. Well the argument of the deledefs and bureaucrats will be: "We had no choice..."
How much worth is your Euro?
Well in Germany we have one answer since yesterday. Ten years ago shares of ENBW were sold to the french government owned EBNF. That has cost them around 2.4 Billion Euro. Now the land Baden-Württemberg has bought back the shares. (nice side-note, the will publish a bond for that, and even nicer, it does not cost us tax payers anything) , the price. around 5 Billion. That is a raise of around 7% a year.. Now we know how stable our EUR is. Because it has not cost us anything we just need 7% raise of income every year to not loose anything. I'm just puzzling how many Germans were able to raise their wages from let's say 3000 EUR to 6000 EUR.... Let us assume some really did manage it. Now at or around 36 000 EUR income a year one has to pay roughly 8000 EUR. For 72000 EUR roughly around: 23.281,74 Euro Yes you might not know we have a just progressive income tax. So let's be a little bit lazy. For having 36 000 income we need around 44 000 EUR a year for having 72000 we need at least 95 000 EUR. Anyway if you earn more than a littlle over 50000 EUR /year. you pay the highest possible tax. That are 42% + 5% (extra money for the German bailout of the GDR (now more than 20 years ago)) . However if you earn > 2700 netto month you are above average in Germany. So we'd be above average with the first number and you really have to search for those earning more > 95 000 EUR. But you know the Euro is stable. And we Germans are "richer" than ever.... So the question is who was able to get 51 000 EUR more income a year, and have earned 44 000 EUR ten years ago. For those of you, I have good news. The EUR was stable for you. All others, please let your member of parliament know that you have become poorer.
Our minister of finance
He's really a babe. Just imagine, we Germans have not lost anything because of the Euro, we are "even" richer than ever before. Very well, he's right to some extend. We have more nice and colorful banknote. We need them dearly because if you go just for buying a few edibles. Oh, yes we are a unthankful rat pack. We did not wanted the Euro as it was introduces (at leat most did not want it) but now we are just unfair.... Oh, yes you can't beat delebets on betraying. They alway have the upper hand. Fair enough, a normal citizen goes to jail while defrauding, a politician gets promoted. That's the delebets land of plenty. Plenty of citizens to abuse, plenty of money to make nice and cuddly fire places. There is nothing like the smell of burning money, there's just one thing more satisfying for that kind of people, the smell of burning flesh.... Of you think I'm angry, or even sarcastic. Well you can bet I am.
I think I got it
well you can call me arrogant but I think I found the biggest political mistakes (well I'd name them criminal offenses) which have lead to our current misery 1) fractional reserve system. I think there can be no discussion about it. if you have fractions you have leverage and leverage can work in both direction. However see the problem: You have 100 CU (currency units), as a private person you can lend maximally 100 CU. Not in a fractional system. you can lend by fractional reserve of 10% roughly 1000 CU. Now let us assume you get the money for 1% (this is currently realistic) than in one year you have to pay back 101 CU to the central bank. Well if all went well you can expect at least 3-5 % for the lending of the 1000 EUR so if all would go well roughly 1050 EUR. Now let's calculate 50/100 = 0.5 Now tell something about getting rich quick. But this is not the end. What will happen if 20% of the money will not get paid back? you the will get back around 840 EUR and 160 EUR are missing. But now we come to the second sin 2) subsidies you can read it also as any hindrance to free trade and bearing what was caused by yourself. Let's proceed with the situation above. We lacking at least 161 CU. Well we do not have the money but know the subsidies come into play (you can see the results in reality for bonds of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and yet a few others). Now the "genius" strikes back. You are bankrup but now the governments jump in an guarantee the other debts. Result you get the 50% gain, risk free. I leave it to your imagination what will result. Well why does it happen. Now just see who really are the worst debtors. They are the governments. And so we have an alliance against those acting within their bounds. Banks want to lend money the more the better, governments want to have money in extreme Amounts, and how brings the government bonds to market? Banks. So governments to not act for the public but their own survival and growth. Their own survival just can be guaranteed in a parasitic way, if they overdraw the host will die. This is bad for any parasit, some of them are "stuid" enough to risk it. But bureaucrats an politicians have one "gurantee" of survival if there are any men left. They can find a way to seize the properties of them. You can see it here in Germany, after the world wars, money was worthless, but still something of value was left, and so they taxed this. You see government is not the solver it's the "base problem". The only thing which can help us is being as unfriendly as host as possible. That means, if the dedebets want more power, resist in any way.
Wikileaks again
I'm quite delighted about the newest publishings, it shows, in what the US believes and what they strive for. Beeing the "super power", and every other should be kept down. It seems that the US fortunately have quite a few dissatisfied workers. What's interesting is the reaction of the traditional press. They write, it's not something did not no before. Well may be but imagine this stuff would have been offered to some traditional news papers. What reaction would we have had then? Now I'm really curious about the publishing of papers of some bank. Guess if you can see how they have betrayed their customers. It would be a pleasure to see them standing naked. Ah well I'm quite "satisfied" that Wikileaks exists.