F Dominicus Blog

A politically incorrect blog about matters of money, government, bureaucracy, freedom and sometimes something else.

The US creditability

Well how interesting that the verdict of the rating agents still is on AAA for the US. They just have a few trillions debt and they "just" another 1.4 trillion during this year. And still the blame the rating agents and call it a "politicial" decision. I wonder what does it mean? Is S&P a unknown party? Are the democrats and republicans not the only parties everywhere else.

Are the owners the democrats or the republicans or what?

No it's very easy the deledefs are fucking afraid. They know they are just playing on time and it seems there only desire is being pensioners if their own build card-house will collapse. They fire out money as mad and never hardly anytime in history there was such a fiat-money flood. Just in and around the finances are devastated. And this was all done by the politicians of the both parties.

If AAA gots lost the debtors can not count on getting money for nothing (and the taxes for free). No they will have to offer higher interest. And this means it will get more expensive and still there is no plan for "paying" back the debts. Just the "plan" to reduce the amount of new debts. So we translate this kind of saving into our world.

Problem 1. The debt of a rate is measured against GDP so there is no GDP for use. That's bad so we must calculate differently. I found this as "official" values for paying the debt. It's 10% of the budget we need to use it for the "income" of our family so let us assume our debt are as official told 50 000 ME (money equivalents (read dollar)) . So we'd have to pay pay (we are not the government so we have "real" interest of let's say 5%. BTW having this as interest rate would break the US.) So we'd have 2500 ME to pay for debs. So our budget is 2500 / 0.1 = 25 000 ME.

We are still lacking our GDP. So we need some help. Because the GDB is nearly exactly 100% of the debs we have GDP of 50000 ME. Great so we need new debts at or around 10% of it, that are 5000 ME. Just let us assume this stays for "let's say 3 years. Let's compare it with how much it is for our budget. The the 5000 ME are 20% of our budget we had before taking the debt. So in reality we'd just have 20 000 ME at our disposal (- the interest which we must pay) . But we spend 25 000.

So in three years we'd have a debt of around 65 000 ME and have to pay 3250 ME interest /year. Now how much does our budget grow? This is hard to tell, but I have calculated with constant 5000 ME extra debts each year. And so our budget still is the same 25 000 three years ago we'd have to pay 2500 for the debt (the 10%) and three years later 3250 / 25000 = 13% of our budget. We'd have not paid bake one cent of our debt and we still are spending 25 000 ME (which is not possible because we can not spend the amount we pay for interest. So in fact we are taking new debts to pay old debts. And that means we have pay on interest of interest of our debt and we extended our whole debt around 30% !!!

If you can see you can stand that. Well you're right. You can stand that for roughly 10 or so years, then you are fully broken. And well now see the US they are doing something similar for more than 10 years. And yet they still should have a rating of triple A? Hard to believe that something so obvious unsustainable should get a rating of "being" save....

You can see however how besides reality this kind of debt calculations are. We do not have any GDP which can help us, we can not tax away other. We just have our income as the "only" calculation base. I can not see and accept that this should be different for states. Just imagine the following all the pension payments are not covered in the budgets of today, although we know there will be some expenses in the future. In private you must save to have something, but the states do not do that. So the pension payments have to be beard from the current budgets, and you still have to pay for zillions of other things. There is nothing comparable in the private sector. (GM was broken by their pension plans BTW)

States should not be allowed to use GDP for calculations but their own budgets, and if they promised for pension payments this money has to be "saved". If that is not possible no pension promises can be given an the money should be left to the peopleā€¦ They have to take care that they have enough for later. If you think how different the rate is comparing GDP and budget. Now let's see what really is our income. We have a budget of 25 000. We have new debts of 5000 ME and 2500 ME interests payments. So that are 25000 - (5000 - 2500) = 17500 ME that's your "earned" money. And yes I have used official numbers, there are so many shadow budgets etc around that this may be just the tip of the iceberg... I write "earned" because the earning of states are in fact robbed. You have to pay tax and you have no choice..... With everyone else you pay what you ask for with governments you pay what you asked for and everything else also.....