F Dominicus Blog

A politically incorrect blog about matters of money, government, bureaucracy, freedom and sometimes something else.

June 2011 - Posts

The things one sees and the things one does not see.
An exemplary example: http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blog/2011/06/17/gas-farm-labor-crisis-playing-out-as-planned/

Indeed you may say. The poor farm workers. The are exploited so bad farmer. Now the food gets wasted now if that happens all over the US what would you think will happen. Exactly the prices for food will explode. So let's assume there were 30 000 "illegal" workers. This term alone is "indicative" Who decides that. Ah yes the government. And still more and more illegals are still working. It seems the exploitation is not that harsh as one might expect.

Now where have this "illegals" gone". I bet not 10 % of them have gone back to whereever they had come. I bet the leaved Georgia and worked elswhere. The probability that they have to work for even less money than in Georgia are not neglectable. And so instead of 60000 less exploited illegals, they even get more exploited.

The things one sees vs the things one does not see.... Someone somehow always pays the bills...

Was Greece saved?
The Greek Parliament has agreed and will get another few billions.

Has this changed the fundamental problem? Well let us assume the Greeks really will be able to sell of a few "assets". How often are you able to do that? Exactly one time. Now if still the income is not sufficient without this sellings, what will happen then? Now if the Greek have a deficit of more than 10 % in their budget and the selling just bring in this 10%, what have they won then?

Next years they have the same amount of debt. They have not paid principal they just have used the money for the runnings costs. Well lthe stuff is sold and what now?

Let us assume they do nothing else to make the gap between expenses and income smaller. Then in fact they are worse of next year. They have lost "assets" which potentially can be profitable. But this "profits" are "gone".

No it's playing on time. One hopes that in year or so everything will be better. But how will that be done. How many new production lines can one open in a year. And what should they produce? They have not find a way of producing enough for the last 10 years but next year everything will be "solved"?

What you see is what happens if government takes it all. Too many bureaucrats to less productive workers. The result is obvious and still do they start changing that? Well it seems unemployment is on the raise. And now guess what government can not extend the expenditures and if you'd produce in Greece and Greece may default. What will happen to your products. Assume they will get buyed mostly in Greek and the people are unemployed and government also can not afford anything. What are your chances then?

Now without a really reduction of the debt and without budget surplus they have no chance. As I wrote just the payments last year and this year are probably twice as much as every Greek earns a year. So the debt will probably raise up to 180 - 220 % of the GDP and Greek is not known of being a big exporting country. Indeed they earn their money more or less with tourism....

Here are the economic figures of Greek according to http://www.querschuesse.de/griechenlands-industrieproduktion-im-marz-2011-mit-8-zum-vorjahr/ the production has gone down around 8% !!! the output is down to a level from 15 or so years ago !! the producing part on the BIP in Greece is as low as 9,17%, the overall BIP is something around 320 billions, 10 % of it are 32 billions. Their debt is somewhere in the 400 billion region. Just with 5% interest they would have to pay 20 billions on interest. Fact is the interest they have to offer on the markets are somewhere above 20 % !!! The import/export budget is 4/2. That means the Greek have to import much more than they could produce. I have not found any figures about the capital in/outflows. But I bet those Greek having something have brought their money abroad. And so tell me whose going to invest then?

A sound rescue looks a bit different to me....

Really bad news
Mrs Lagard will follow Strauss Kahn.

http://mises.org/Community/blogs/fdominicus/archive/2011/05/23/thanks-but-not-to-mrs-lagarde.aspx Oh well now we have another potential defrauder and definitive a centralist at the top if the IMF. Now I bet Greece will get some more money, even if the IMF has guide lines which would forbid that.

Now we have new centralists and monetary policy believers in the ECB and the IMF. That's so sorry fucking bad, that I could just cry

So we'll see new establishemnts of lendors of las resort, stuffed with tons of "new debt". No state has some money left to pay for it without new credits. So the money avalanche will get bigger and bigger. I just kindly remind you of: http://mises.org/Community/blogs/fdominicus/archive/2011/02/03/my-predictions.aspx

It gets more and more nightmarish....

If there is one common thing in the works of the politicians
in the EU and USA it's the ever expanding raise in laws against freedom and limiting liability.

As you can read also here: http://mises.org/Community/blogs/tokyotom/default.aspx

But know there is a new negative record in the making of the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) . Unfortunatly despite search for an english version I just found an inofficial German translation. In short: A new agency, with immunity of all in the governments boards without any democratic legitimation. As soon as I find the english version of it I'll post it here.

Let's get over it.
For year now the establishement tries to save themselves while taking every tax paying cititzen as hostage.

I started my other blog some 3 or so years ago and added the Mises Blog last year. I just cite myself from my outer Mises Blog http://fdominicus.blogspot.com/2008/09/its-not-plan-at-all.html or a bit earlier: http://fdominicus.blogspot.com/2008/09/capitalism.html

I may bore you to death with it, but I think it still is needed that there always was and is another way. If you just have but one plan you have at least two choices. Follow the plan or DO NOTHING. If you are at the edge of a cliff and see the other side you can try to make one extra step. Or you can just stay, and think.

After a while of thinking you may see that it would be a bad idea to make the step and drop a few hundred meters. You won't get on the other side while falling to death. So than you think a little longer and you could think of another way of getting to the other side. And you may start looking for bridge or the like. If you find one other "solution" you probably find some other solutions.

Now let's come back to the state of affairs. If the politicians had stopped three years ago and thought. They might have realized the debt are too high and it won't help to pile them up even higher. This never has happens with the majoritiy of hte politicians and so they became deledefs. Now everything else is a follow-up to this. And still the economic reality (the abyss) is real. I don't know of the Deledefs have make the next stupid step. But even if, men will survive. Especially those having lived within their bounds.

You still may declare yourself independent of the stupidness of the deledefs....

For us all the declaration of independence would be sound money, while breaking the money monopoly of any government. Sound money means if you have money you still will be able to exchange that against goods you need. Unsound money may just be stuff to play with for children. So help to fight the central banks and fiat-money, and let's the deledefs do the last stupid step alone...

At leat some good news
English banks reduce their exposer to EU risks: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8584442/UK-banks-abandon-eurozone-over-Greek-default-fears.html

1:100 that Merkel and Sarkozy will name them speculates. Or traitors or such

Greeks history is near record breaking for defaulting. Just read "This time is different" and you'll see I'm taking this out of the blue.

Much more interesting is that defaulting seems to correlate very nicely with corruption. For this beeing able to read German check: http://www.tu-chemnitz.de/wirtschaft/bwl4/interessantes/Korruption_Artikel.pdf

Togehter with this time is different you'll see the probabiltiy of Greek defaulting is very high and because of the sell of of bonds one can see, all but the deledefs think a default is inevitable.

Some will never get it
There are at least two of them here in Euro land. Named Merkel and Sarkozy

Why do I write that? Well they want to keep Greece floating with anohter staging 120 billion bill fo all the europeans. Well they did not tell us they will give this money out at once, but in the end we'll have given the Greek something around 200 - 400 billions.

That you got an idea on how much that really is. There are roughly 500 millions living in Europe. (According to Wikipedia) so now let'c caluclate with 300 billions new debt we have 300 000 000 000 / 500 000 000 = 600 €/each. So for a family of four nearly 2500 €. This money will have to be "spend" in roughly 3 years. So this makes every year for 800 extra payments for paying principal (you know the other EU countries simply do not have any reserves they just can "pay" this help with another round of debts)

Now how many Greeks are there? 10.688.058 according to: http://www.geographixx.de/einwohner/infos.asp?land=Griechenland

Now three hundred billions of debt are per inhabitant: 300000000000/10500000 = 28571 €. Surely more than what each inhabitant earns a year.

Everyone but the deledefs can see that this is not bearable. And so things will come as they have to Greece will default. No surprise at all but for the deledefs. And two of the most stupid are deciding that sinking that much money will "help". This is so ridicoulous stupid that it's beyond any understanding.

Some really got it
There's a saying in Germany "Gut Ding will Weile haben" it seems the english counterpart is "haste makes waste"

At least a few probably have risen their head to see the light. They now tell us: "There's no Euro crisis" (which is true because) "we have a debt crisis" which surely is true. Just leave aside the fact that our money in the end is debt. So all our money is part of a really debt problem. Money should not be debt but value is the way to go in the shortest possible run. But indeed the Euro is not responsible for careleless debt piling. Nobody in Greece was forced to accept debts and more debt and even more debts.

So let's see debt not as the "money debt" but the debt of bonds etc. The bankrupt of Greece would not make the Euro suddenly worthless. Just the debt of the bonds would be "gone" (well more or less) So quite a few billions of debt would "vanish". (Agreed they do not vanish into nothing, but Greece would see the result. If it ever will come back for asking fresh money in form of new bonds. People would surely require a premium. Despite anything this would be a good thing. If you know you have to bear quite a lot of intereste you'll be cautious to improve your ranking and you will not pile up debts that fast. Unfortunatly this is not a "never ending story", but that's another "party".

Now to see this debt problem and not make it worth with even more debt would be prudent policy. But as we now prudent and policy do not have anything in common but the first letter. Now with the inprudent policy of giving away 110 billion !! a year ago. The imprudence has make it a lot worth. Instead of let's say 600 billions debts Greece now has 700 billions debt. And guess what it does not have lighten their burden in fact the landing will get harder. And do not add another unwise step the politicians should face it with a straight face. Greece is bankrupt now let's see that we get over it without civil war. The way always is the same. The debitiors must bear the bill. If some of them will broke over it, then we must let them go also. I guess this later implications is what the deledefs fear more than anything else. So they probably will not "face" it but prolongate the suffering....

Requirements to be a Deledef (real word for Politicians)?
Really I'm wondering. Is it a requirement for being a Politician to fight markets as much as one possible can (and loose always in the long run?)

Can anyone tell me what were the results of the first failout plans for banks? Are they in a better shape? Have they repaid their debt?

What was the result of cash-for-clunker?

What have we gained with expanding government jobs beyond any reason?

Really I can not remember one decision the last few years which were not against markets and the irresistible forces. They try and try and pile up debt after debt and still it's getting worth every second.

Do we really have to destroy any wealth there is? To start "afresh"?

Can one be happy about the death of a man/woman/idea?
Well if you think happy is much to strong. How about being relieved?

Was the day of the death of Alexander the Great, Caeasar, Hitler, Stalin, Lening or you name it a "happy" day? Well I guess it very depends. If you had been supressed or conquered you surely was happy that days. But all in all, you did not know what would come next. Still if the infrastructure of slaughter still was in place (and even aver HItlers death the ward did go on for 4 months. And theses months were terrible for "the normal soldier". If you'd not been killed by the "enemies" you would end in front of firing squad.

If you did not catch the right timing you were shooten by some own fanatics in the name of the "Endsieg".

Now can one be happy about the death of Osama. I guess with some assurance at least some were happy that day. But still does it have meant the end of Al Quaida? Surely not. So one devil is gone (which probably is seen as a saint from others) but still Osama happily and readily wanted to kill Americans whereever he could. So anyway I guess many were if not happy quite relieved.

Now if one can be relieved about whom's death one could be relieved these days? If we see the damage done by fiat-money and central banks. I'd to admit I would kind of be relieved of seeing this entities die. Agreed that are not men directly (because even if E.g Obama or Merkel would be gone, the infrastructure of suppression and misery are still in place. So we would not really win a grain of freedom. Anyway I would be happy to see the complete idea of fiat-money and central banks die. However the days of this fiat-money round are counted. Every new credit for "saving" whatever is just digging a little bit deeper....

So yes I would be happy about the death of central banks and fiat-money. And I would not be happy or relieved but it would be a kind of satisfaction if the current deledefs would have to go.....

Reading suggestion II

Do yourself a favor and run to the next library and buy or borrow. "The case for Gold". You can see how nice big government and big money play together to harm everyone else. You can see the history of the Greenback is a history of fraude, lies, broken promises. There was but one time where the "right" thing was done.

You ask what the "right" thing is? Well I guess then you don't have read anything every written here ;-) The right thing it abolishing the central banks and fiat-money. Nothing will be a better base for a sustainable way of living. Every other approach is deemed to fall, because as Heinlein has pointes it out in "the moon is a harsh mistress" Tanstaafl".

You can see the failure in nearly every law. Politicians decide without any consideration of the associated costs. Oh indeed they always argue that it will get cheaper. But as sure as hell does not freeze over, if government intevenes it's getting much more expensive. I suggest you just check how much money is spend in and on government activities. You can check nearly every country (all but those which have nearly gone broke) and you see the vermins are everywhere. You think you will win that race? Forget it, you will get deluded.

Just see what happens to production. Production is reglemented. Masses of bureaucrats decide what one is allowed to produce. You see the way is alway to some monopolies of the states. The biggest monopoly (with the highest harm factor) if of course the debt system (one can not talk any longer of the monetary system) . The system is the debt producing machine, and it issues money in ever increasing quantities. But again there will be pay days. And the more debt there will be the harder the impact will get. There is no way that this system can survive. It's from ground up unsustainable. So if the foundation is wrong, everything else will crumble. The only "solution" is to prepare a well foundation. Then you can build skyscrapers and they still will "persist".

So end the central banks and the worthless paper debt system. In this there is but no choice. Wealth never can come from debt, even if you see a ranking of billionaires, you always have to bear in mind. It's not the have this wealth in greenbacks. They always have something of value....

Money as value vs money as debt

I'd planned to write a long post about it but guess what I found: http://mercuryreliance.wordpress.com/2011/04/12/money-is-debt-and-gold-is-money-supreme-court-of-canada-says-so-in-a-ruling/ The reading in the link is "legalenglish" so be warned.

So anything I'd like to say is said. Our current money is nothing but debt, it is not value. If you tender money against something of value, this is the "value". Now imagine a world or money as value. the money would have some inscript like. The holder has the right to get 4 pigs for this note. Then money is value not debt. it would not make a difference for the payer to either give something else but 4 pigs or the 4 pigs. But in our system if you want to "get" something for a bank note, you just will get "another" bank note. So you see there is nothing behind the money.

Now wher's the sham? The sham is that the central banks issue this promise. And they can and accept bonds of states/governments as "security" to issue more "notes". Now we have an instrument of unlimited generation of "debt" (well they (the deeldefs) call it money)) but you see it's a straight lie. The states issues bonds which can (and unfortunatly are accepted as security) and new notes of debt are issued. So government issues bonds for 100 ME, Fed accepts and issues another 100 ME "money" and so debts are paid with "debs".

You still do not see the sham? Well let's go further, This debt has to be accepted at straight value form everyone living in that country. And so you give something of value (e.g a house) and get a debt certificate in advance. Now imagine a world in which money is value. So let's assume money can be redeemed in precious metals. E.g 1 g of Gold is 1 ME. So if you house costs 1000 ME you can get a kilogram of gold instead. But this is a real value. No money can created which is not redeemable in gold. And so one could ask government to pay back bonds in Gold. And government can just pay Gold it has. It can not issue a bond and the Gold suddenly come into existence. This is what currently is not done.

The state can issue as much money (as debt) as it likes. If they would not have the "money" straight. The way would be, issue a bond, have it bought by the Central bank and "voila" money is there.

It's clear what money defrauders prefer. And so they do in every country of this world. The promise money but in fact this money is debt. It just says "trust us we give you something in return for your values". That's the biggest sham in the whole history of men. There's not bigger crime than issuing money as debt as make this debt a legal payment. It always will end in tears and misery. Because there is not limit to inflate money supply. But the governments are the first getting this "more" money and they get "real" values in return. The one givin away this "real" value, suddenly will see. Well the promise does not hold, just wait a yeare and most of the time you won't get back the same value as you had given a year before. This inflation of the money supply, devaluates each unit of the currency and you can buy less "real" goods than before. This is than the "saying" of raising prices. Well no the prices of the goods do not change. If I give you a tomato today and you promise to give back a tomato next year. Then we are talking about value against value. Now with fiat-money and unlimited inflation of the money suppl y(potentially, but sure if the end is near). I would receive let's say 1 MU for the the tomato. Now next year I have to give you a tomato. With an inflated money supply and assuming that everything else stays equal. I have to pay for the tomato in a year 1 Mu + what is needed to balance the devaluated money units.

So the only "honest" way is having money as value. Notes must bear a note which simply states. This note will give xy grams of (whatever).

I'd just like to see money as value, but for those who think the promises of governments are sound can use there money as debt. Why we do not get that option is probably all too obvious.....

Interesting days

Yesterday it was a interesting day at the stock exchange in Germany. Up 1.7 or so %. That's quite a mark. However it was fuels by the "hope" or "certainty" that there will be new payments for Greece. So that is interesting. Although it's getting more and more obvious that Greece will default. The hope there is still, that "more" money will help. We can see this superstition is undying. So we climb up the cliffs a little higher. And we seem to think it doesn ot matter how deep the fall. One will survive. Sure even after the Euro people will live and it's to be expected that the deledefs will live off the fat of the land.

The result will be more and more will get poor. Hardly anyone will be saved. We currently live like if there is no tomorrow, and probably for many there won't be one. But still some of us have children and they may see it a bit different. But currently we do have party. And read my last blogs where I ask what are the signs? The signs for the "ending" of this biggest bubble/bust circle ever since around 90 years. Americas unemployment rate is nearing 12 %, we here in Germany are currently lowering our unemployment rate. This probably will change dramatically if the defaults will get unavoidable.

There are also attacks on the purse from every side. And especially from areas where the truth can not be found in any current figures. Just in a few side-notes. We'll have a giant promise of the pension payments in front of us. We'll see extreme raises in day and night care for the elderlies. There are less and less working productive and really "serving" the wishes and needs of men. And more and more will get sunk in bureaucrats excesses. So you can see I'm not very optimistic about the raising "notations" at the stock exchanges. I'm afraid it just will up in more misery day-by-day.

small additon for 01.06.2011. It has gone nearly as much down as up yesterday.