F Dominicus Blog

A politically incorrect blog about matters of money, government, bureaucracy, freedom and sometimes something else.

September 2011 - Posts

Too big to fail?

I for my part starting to thinking that this is impossible. There's a limit to seize in everything. I even will start betting on "too big to survive" instead.

Why do I think that... Well look at the US, the government has grown bigger every day since the 2nd world war and more and more goes through government hands. And states do not "produce" anything they are just "consuming" so more and more things are getting consumed by the ever increasing government. As we can see the government has consumed not just what they have stolen, but also what they have "borrowed". And this now is simply "too" much, to large the debts not to fail. In short too large to survive.

The states in the EURO zone face a similar problem. The governments in every country have grown and the EU bureaucracy. So in a way there's a level more too "consume" and not to produce. Nearly all the EU states have too much debt. Now they want to cure the problems caused by seize with inflating the seize even more. In the whole history of nature and mankind. Nothing could grow beyond some limit. Just look back to dinosaurs. They grow bigger every generation and suddenly they collapsed and "vanished". Every empire was destroyed AFTER it has out-grown a size which was survivable.

Nature also tells us there is alway scarcity. Lions can not survive without enough prey. The prey can not survive without enough grass. Grass can not survive without enough rain and sun. Governments can only survive with enough support from the population. There is a point of no-return where the population simply does not support government any longer. Even the most inhuman government can not fight all of their population. (All is way too much but I can't tell where the limit is)

Check the big empires they all extend and extend and extend and finally collapsed. This is what happens if things are getting too big. Governments world-wide are way too big to survive, so are large corporations. Yes they will rule and yes they will make our life on earth hell. But finally they will break down.

Nobody know when things really got too big or start to tumble. So take this with some tons of salt. It seems the debt spiral has turned into a death sprial. You can see the time-spans where new even higher (and IMHO more absurd) figurers are mentioned. See e.g here in Euro land the costs on "saving" .. whomever. It has started with around 300 billions. and now with new leverages we're talking about 2 trillions. This increase just happened in a year. Do you remember Paulson, he wanted to start with 750 billions and now we are way beyond a few trillions. This raise has happened in just 3 years. So you see the nearer we come to the present the higher the figures. With rates of growth well beyond 1000% a year. In the case of the EU we have a raise of roughly 1.7 trillions that is an increas from 1.4 / 0.3 = 466,67 %. Still it does not even cover all the debt just the debt of a state like Italy. Now unfortunately there is also Spain, Portugal, Fraance and last but not least Germany. ..... If we just look at the debts of the biggest countries in Euro land we are talking about 7- 10 trillions of debt. And well the less likely it will be that they will pay their debts. So no EUR land will not survive in that form simple because it has outgrown it's seize of survival

Either the US or the EUro countries will break down, before I bet we see some other developing countries to face their doom. Too much money from EUR countries and US countries was put there. If they start contracting to pay their obligations, those countries will be without a chance. But it does no help. Assume that Greece will default on their debts, then this debts are simply gone. And one of the other bank will face deep troubles (Currently it seems the french banks are quite high exposed to risks resulting on Greek) It could be no surprise that Sarkozy tries massivly to find new lender. I guess he knows all too well how dire the french situation really is. The unemployment rate is especially high among the younger one, and central planning does it's best to be as inefficient as possible. And yes it's not a surprise that the EZB has bought securities from the PIG states, they know without it they would be gone.

Germany has it's own massive problems which still are unsolved. The pension promises e.g are simply terrible high and covered by anything. The taxes can be well over 50% and that's unbearable.

So I extend my predictions with that: Within the next five years the EUR zone will not exist in it's current shape.

The near future predictions are difficult because we do not now what will be faster the contraction of the economy or the printing of money. If we assume that contraction will prevail we should see falling stocks, falling gold till the printing press will win. After that we will see higher inflation. I predicted around 5 % within the next 3 or so years. It could be that this will take a little bit longer (but then the inflation will raise well beyond 5-7 %. That will be the last thing we remember while seeing the current governments and states collapsing. Simply because of "TOO BIG TO SURVIVE"

After that who knows?

Extension to "let's talk about real" money.

Here we got new attacks on rationality.

Ideas to end democracy http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-being-prepared.html

There was a reason that the US did not have a central bank up from the start. There was a reason to not trust paper-money, there was reason to not trust big corporations. All this gone. And Obama does not stop. he does even more to abolisch any rest of responsibility. And Geither just the helpful, just follows suite. People if you think about unfriendly words about deledefs insert them here NOW:

Now we are starting talking about money.

Now imagine in the EU. the safety chute chould be around 500 Mrd EUR . Now we hear from the IWF (with Mr Lagarde (France) at the top. And the French bank in peril. That the EU zone has to prepare a giant bailout for banks for just around 2 000 000 000 000 EUR. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-being-prepared.html

Impressive, isn't it? Really. Italy alone has 1 800 000 000 000 € debts. So are we preparing to bail-out Italy. Now why stop there? France debts are somwhere near that I guess and Germany has well traveled beyond 2 000 000 000 000. Now would it be possible to give me a break from this stupidity?

For all those still believing "we can manage" let me encourage you just a tiny bit: "Game over".

I was preparing to leave Germany last year, my wife disagreed. Now we are caught in this big trap. I'm afraid my entry about new lows will be the understatement of the decade. Well let's see how far my Puts will tear me. And how long money will be the means to buy anything. Funny colored paper. Who could imagine it's impact.

To all politicians.

I know hardly anyone bothers and the least our public-payed TV institutions. And even less nearly any of our politicians (there are exceptions confirming the rule)

You are breaking the laws you have established yourself. There is the no-bail-out clause for states. There is also the law that the EZB only "target" is the stability of the EURO. You are all liars, and defrauders and black-mailers. I just want to state it without any misunderstanding.

For all the other, having to work for their money and not being paid by any government. In the long run market will prevail. Try the best you can to harm any deledef and any bureaucrat. Try to give them as less as you possibly can without conflicting with the laws they have made to get you. You won't get away with it, but make their live as miserable as you possibly can. It's you who is right and they are the wrong-doers and parasites. Obama wants more money? Well do not vote for him, you can next year or so.

Fight also against the violations of base human rights. Guantanamo can be Los Angeles or any city in the US very soon. Fight the FED where you can, do not buy any treasuries. Do fight for your right for sound money. Request from your congressman to not vote for any higher debt ceiling ever. You have the right on your money. It's not their money and they are not the generous ones to give anything to you. They live on your expenses.

All you Greeks who do the harm to your corrupt and 99% too big government you have my sympathies. They live much more on your expenses as nearly anywhere else in the world but socialists countries. Say no to corruption, say go you Politicians. We do not bear you any more. If you are sane, you leave the € and introduce sound money, all the funny paper will just be inflated from your next "elites". Do not accept a new round say no to Fiat-Geld and say no to a Greek central bank. If you follow the route of the fiat-money, you'll be right back where you currently are in not more than 30 years. Is that what you really want? A state bankruptcy every half century? Think about it....

To two of our european politicians
In this case to Mr Sakozy and Mrs Merkel

Whatever you do do bring more harm upon us. You are not the owner of the Europeans. Currently at least on wishes you really bad things.

You are working on sinking even more money, you are working on establishing more contract violations. Both of you are not minimize the harm, you are maximizing it. I'd bet a few years from on you will find the place you deserve. Among the worst politicians ever. You name will get a prominent place in "the hall of deledefs"

Future will show if you or the markets will be right. I'm sure the winner will not be you.

I also will do whatever I can to harm you in any way which does not lead me to jail. I will write against your stealing every day. No other move against us will be tolerated or not documented. I always write where you violate the principal human rights of every one. Both of you are big thieves, both of you are paid by blackmailed money. I will also try my very best to not even get near you and you can bet I will all I can to not pay your dues. I wish you the poverty you are planning to put on us. I wish you all the worst.

A view on different taxes
especially in regard to the situation in Greece.

Well my opinion about taxes it that they are theft in any case, It's not a deal you may make or may not do. You live in country X the "authorities" from country X will tax you. You have no choice but comply, otherwise you will be "convinced" at the point of a gun and/or face hard times in jail.

It would be a little better if you'd have the chance at least to state for what you are willing to pay. Let' s assume e.g the higway were build from the government. And you use them . The right thing would be to charge only those using the highways. That would be just. Anyway if you'd had at least the chance saying from my taxes x% are for the highways. (It's just an example) this would be at least fit something a little bit like a market. But you do not even have that choice. So without doubt taxes are payments without some guranteed return. So in fact it's theft and because it involves the "violence monoply" of the state it's even worse

But income taxes are less expropriating as taxes on substance and or deat taxes. If there is an even more unjust type of tax, those are the candidates. Assume e.g you earn exaclty the free income before income tax applied. You do not pay any tax than.. Now assume you earn just that much money and have a substance tax, as were introduced in Greece. Now you have to pay the tax and you get taxed before income tax can set in. Now what does that mean. You may have to ask for a credit to pay your taxes? And next year when the same holds the interestes and principals have to be paid and the taxes again?

So in fact taxes on the substance are absolutly incompatible with property. So they are the most unjust things ever put on tax payers. And that's the way Greece has gone. The requirements and payments get more and more injust. And still the same old gang is at the top. Now tell me something about hate....

No way out
of fractional reserve according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full-reserve_banking What a mess, e-gold is under massivly attack. Great this monopolies aren't they?
How deep is the trouble (France)?
Now after Greece let's have a look at France. I now work for more then 10 years with a french programmer. And he's self employed. (but won't be that much longer we will retire). The french government does act as the the sun's king times. The last attack was that one has to pay for the gains one have while selling houses. Well of course inflation is not taken into account but even worse, the tax should apply to any bough house (even in the past)

So of you'd bought a house 10 years or so ago. And you would sell with a gain theese days, you won't have to pay any tax, well that was the law as you bought that house. Now this does not hold any longer? That's brutal and disappropriation. Old contracts suddenly do not hold any more?

Another big problem the state has pension obligations and even self-employed have to pay for it. As in other countries this obligations habe to be met wit the current income. There was no accruals for it. And well this means there is a big bureacracy in which everyone has to pay in. The buraucrats have to be paid and well maybe you get some money back. However it's getting less and less likely that they stick to these obligations.

Another point one just earns below the minimum wage in France if the gross income month is 2500 €. So well that is quite a lot of money IMHO, but you'll have to pay all the government and also a tax consultants because it's the law that every self-employeed has to be controlled. Well yes the money is gone for "nothing"..You can see the elits of France in the form of MMe Lagarde. So you can see, from there one can not expect anything.

According to some figures one quarter of all under 25 are unemploye in france. That's too much, and this will raise the possibility of violence massivly. You can see the laws in France do prevent earning an honest income for a free living. That means France is as much messed up as Greece. France will not be able to bear much more safety chutes costs. AFAIK they decided for a new "credit" facility named ESM which will just send us down the drain faster.

So currently I'd think the risks for a bankrupt are roughly in that order: 1) Greece (they are bankrupt) 2) Italy ( 3) France, Spain

I guess Germany will fall short after either Italy or France.... In fact it seems the ponzi scheme comes to an end. I do not think it will took much more than a decade to probably the biggest fall in history. I think I will have to adjust my predictions or add a few other points to it.

All in all one can say devastating....

How deep is the trouble (Greece)?
Well it's difficult these times to get some non mainstream reports on Greece. It's impossible to find much critique in any german newspaper or magazine.

But there are few side remarks borrowed at the end of some articles sometimes, and one can get a little bit more infromaton on the Neue Züricher Zeitung. (Which fails unfortunatly miserable on Swiss affairs)

So this are the information I gathered. Today in the BNN. The greek government has calculated with 30 billions extra taxes, now is was reported. The supposed payers are owned by the Greece state and most of them are bankrupt!!! 30 billions means that this money simply is lacking in the "income" of the Greece state. With the information from here: http://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/staatsverschuldung/griechenland-hat-ein-bruttoinlandsprodukt-bip-schuldenkrise-kommentar_2542983.html Greece Gdp 240 billons Income (taxes) 75 billions Expenses 105 billions new debts30 billions.

Well just double the debts with this, and we are in the region of new debts well above 20%, of the GDP. Which still is shrinking. If anyone can see this as sustainable, I'm afraid he should see ones doctor.

Another information from the NZZ stated. That even after a year, the government does not know how many really do work in government or government owned corporations. Now this is a another bummer. Add to this that the calculate with more than 25% of the working population, is working for government (currently known) and you see how deep their troubles are.

In fact all the figures they've come up with are not even guess work, just wishful thinking. So m conclusion is Greece is completly messed up. There is no way that they even will be able to pay more than 20% or of their debt. So in fact the 300 billions of debt must be depreciated to maybe 30 or so billions. So a definitive loss for the creditors of 90%. I'll bet neither Sarkozy nor Merkel will mention it. So fact is the money we gave to Greece is lost.

My conclusion is harsh but simple: "Game over". There's no way Greece can get out of this without a terrible loss of anything. I'm afraid poverty will be the logical consequence. Because the young Greeks won't find any work in Greece, they will emmigrate. And the GDP will shrink even more. Because of the irresponsibility of the "leading" Greeks, we'll see what may happen to us. During the great depression, states do not had have anything like that many debts as we've before. Imagine the interest payments....

I can not quantify is as anything but devastating. The state of Greece will not survive (at least not in this form), I won't exclude a military coup.

The non interest earning gold
This is a very crude way to discuss. If you'd read Rothbard you will see he never talks about some fiat-currency but gold ounces and that even those earn their interest. That it's not so with current gold is simply because gold is calculated in whatever fiat-money you can think of.

And you do not lend Gold but "money" , as we know this money is not real money, but that's another story

Still since 2001 gold has risen from around 300 USD/ounce to well over 1800 USD/ounce in 2011 that means the you need six times more money today to buy one ounce. That are a little below 20% raise for now 10 years, and the last 3 years the raise has risen to 27%/year. So if you'd spend 1000 USD in 2001 in Gold you know could get back 6000 USD and well the inflation rate is quite a bit lower

On the other hand the interest yielding Euro money today yields 1.976 % for 10 years. In Germany we'd have to pay 0.4xx % taxes on it and inflation rate is near 2.5%. You're loosing a percent every year. If we just would calculate with double the interest for the past 10 years and you'd invest 1000 USD for 10 years you and without taxes you'd now have 1343 USD. Now talk about the "great" interests this money earns....

Because all central banks and politician try to devaluate their currencies one just can buy gold, sit back and watch. The madness will come to an end. Do you think you will fare better with fiat-money or Gold? Well I for my part have decided that for me....

Who could be suprised.
Ok the debt ceiling was risen and surprise surprise Obama want a new program of around 300 billions to "stimulate" the economy.


The Addicted get another round of their stuff, and they are using it. This time for "something" good.... As if there ever was anything else but "good"

I stick to my opinion about Obama. He's a liar and has no clue about real economics. He lives in the same land-of-plenty, where one just prints money and everyone get more rich. I'm really fed up with this deledefs

So here we go again the State can not initiate productive work, just conuming, and of we let us assume we need 100000 USD for a new jobs you can "calculate" how many news there might be. Don't forget to count those loosing their job because the state thinks, it knows better....

After all this years.
The same simple questions, I asked 3 or more years ago remain unanswered.

How can even more cheap credit solve a problem which was caused by too much credit?

Now 3 years later and 4 000 000 000 000 later, the question still remains unanswered? How could it ever get better with even more "debt"?

New lows? Sure new lows !!
Well it seems the lows were not low enough

1) The USA growth was cut by 2/3 from the "experts"

2) The help for Greece is not enough the "saving" goals will not be reached

3) Gold climbs again but the Germans sell their Gold attire (do they really think they will not miss some value to barter with on the markets?)

4) Italys Berlusconsi says Italy is shit

5) Obama "promised 1 Million new jobs"

6) Bernanke does not do anything currently but has vengeance weapons.

7) The people still buy swiss money as if there won't be tomorrw

8) The economy growth in Germany is supposed to get much slower

9) Many Germans give a sh... on their own personal debts.

Dear Readers, you can see they do not what they do but they are marching on....

You remember my predictions? Well inflation is still high and yield are on record low. That means you loose money while you bu bonds. If you feel like burning money, do me a favor and send the money you like to burn to me. I'll buy some extra precious metals.....

I found this in my other blog written some 3 years or so ago: http://fdominicus.blogspot.com/2008/10/down-drain.html

It could be that the around 10 trillions or so have bought us 3 years. Well half of the time the whole have worked for that much money, and it does not seem to help,. I bet another non-existant 10 trillions wil harly buy us another 3 years maybe 1-2.. and then?