By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 23rd, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/23/massachusetts-from-a-seinfeld-perspective/
In a post on November 19 entitled Another Failed Presidency, I stated:
At this point they [politicians] are trying to decide
what is least dangerous for their individual careers. For the
Republicans that probably means pouring gasoline on ship Obama. For the
Democrats, it is a more difficult problem. Ultimately, I believe they
will abandon the rotting ship. Politicians of both parties are like
rats; they are survivors. All politicians will take that course which
they believe gives them the best chance for individual survival.
Loyalty be damned.
The Massachusetts’ election was the bell for the rats to abandon ship.
Massachusetts and its aftermath might have been the worst political
nightmare for Larry David and other writers of the Seinfeld show. It
was probably unimaginable, yet they managed to write what might be a
near- perfect allegory for the event. It involved George Costanza at a
children’s birthday party.
The key scenes, which can be viewed here, provide a humorous parallel to Democrat reactions to Massachusetts.
The preliminary conversation between Costanza (Democrats) and the
Clown (Republicans) is indicative of the lack of communication and
cooperation between the two parties. When smoke is discovered, George
bolts for the exit, knocking down children, mothers and the elderly as
he tries to save himself. The allegory only becomes richer when
Costanza lies and rationalizes his behavior to the police, a process
that Democrats now face when explaining their change of course.
The ultimate irony is that few associated with the Seinfeld show
would appreciate the humor. Yet, once again, the show forces us to
recognize our own foibles through its absurd scenes and characters. To
me, it is the perfect microcosm for what our political class (or lack
of class) has devolved into.
It is now apparent that this President has failed, superbly and
unequivocally. Even Democrat epigones know it. Before the evacuation of
Obama’s ship is complete, it is likely that we will see Democrat
behavior that makes George Costanza appear heroic.
The only happy Democrat today is Jimmy Carter. He probably senses
the chance to pass his heavy mantle of “worst President in my lifetime”
on to “The One.”
Also posted on American Thinker
By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 26th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/26/prez-fights-for-survival/
There
has always been a bit of uneasiness regarding President Obama and his
self-obsession. Some have suggested that it is extreme narcissism,
severe enough to be a pathological problem.
According to CBS News,
there were only 21 days in his first year where Obama did not make at
least one public appearance. The statistics from CBS were amazing: 411
speeches comments and remarks of which 52 were on healthcare, 158
interviews, visits to 58 US cities and 21 foreign nations, 160 flights
on Air Force One, 193 flights on Marine One, etc. etc. In short, it was
Obama time, all the time.
The following post from American Thinker highlights the concern regarding President Obama’s self-absorption:
January 25, 2010
Rick Moran
I really feel the need to apologize
to our president. In the past I have called him a pathological
narcissist. I was mistaken in that and should probably bake a cake and
send it to the White House
as my act of contrition.I never dreamed he was worse than that:
Berry recounted meetings with White House officials
,
reminiscent of some during the Clinton days, where he and others urged
them not to force Blue Dogs “off into that swamp” of supporting bills
that would be unpopular with voters back home.“I’ve been doing that with this White House,
and they just don’t seem to give it any credibility at all,” Berry
said. “They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. The
president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, ‘Well, the big difference here and in ‘94 was you’ve got me.’ We’re going to see how much difference that makes now.”
That quote comes to us via Glenn Thrush’s blog in Politico where he details what retiring rep Marion Berry
told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.
Do the Democrats realize yet that
this self puffery is the product of a delusional mind and that
following him means almost certain destruction for their careers and
perhaps their party?
If I were a Democrat
, I would be afraid. Very afraid.
Whether
the Dems believe that “this self puffery is the product of a delusional
mind” is irrelevant. They have seen his toxicity in polls and recent
elections. What appeared to be an attractive young upstart, capable of
passing legislation dreamed about by older Dems for decades, is now
seen as a threat to their very existence. The old bulls are not ready
to cede their place in Washington so that some young, delusional
dreamer can pursue his fantasies and destroy their gravy train.
Fantasy has been confronted by reality. In such contests, reality
always triumphs, at least eventually. It will be interesting to see how
this President reacts. He is not used to being questioned. Nor is he
used to being treated with anything other than cult-like admiration. If
indeed his condition is pathological, we could be in store for a very
painful (and dangerous) national soap opera.
When Obama was useful, he was the hit of the party. Exposed, he is
nothing more than a liability that threatens the rest of the party.
Survival trumps loyalty, ideology and psychology. Regardless of Obama’s
psychological condition, he is about to be destroyed by his own tribe.
Messiahs are not used to such treatment. How this plays out will be interesting and potentially very dangerous.
By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 27th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/27/healthcare-vaporizes-obama-presidency/

Healthcare destroys a presidency and jeopardizes a political party.
In the fledgling days of the personal computer industry, software
vendors frequently announced products that were not yet ready for
release. The term “vaporware” was coined to describe such software.
Most of these products never reached the marketplace. Some that did
should not have.
The recent health-care reform effort was nothing more than a
modern-day, political version of vaporware or, more aptly, VaporCare.
The VaporCare bill never reached a point where it was ready for
“release.” In software terminology, the legislation was nothing but
“spaghetti code.” It was written by dozens, all of whom brought their
own coding styles, wants and objectives. There was no guiding objective
to the legislation other than “we must pass something, quickly.”
No one, including the various writers of the bill, the Congress or
President Obama, had a comprehensive understanding of the legislation.
The bill was a “moving target,” changing whenever criticisms arose,
decision-makers met or vote-buying was required. Few of the ad hoc
changes had anything to do with improving the quality of health care.
As stated in The Legend of Bagger Obama:
At the end, there was no discernible logic behind the
plan. Inconsistencies, deals, falsified data and outright lies were
evident to anyone willing to look. Despite the problems and
unpopularity, healthcare moved forward not unlike an ancient pagan
ritual. Congressional Democrats [were willing to sacrifice] the best
healthcare system in the world and the American taxpayer to their God,
Bagger Obama.
No
one in the political class knew what was in the final bill or whether
their Frankenstein monster would work. Few seemed to care.
Vaporware or “sausage-making” might be foreign to voters, but their
health care is not. The public quickly realized that they did not
matter, at least in the eyes of the political class. Passage of a bill,
any bill, was more important than the quality or quantity of health
care. Monument-building was too important for normal folks to have
input. The political elites knew what was best for the common folks and
were intent on providing it, “good and hard.”
Blinded by ambition, Democrats believed they could ignore the
electorate. Despite rising public discontent, the political class
plowed ahead. Why not? They had a filibuster-proof majority. They had
designed (and continued to modify) a great VaporCare plan. Their
President had messianic powers that would enable him to sell any
program they designed. It was a sure thing. Full speed ahead!
Democrats clearly misjudged. The largest ratings agency in the
country, the voting public, rated the product defective, yet the Dems
moved toward passage. Congress came across as imperial, and President
Obama ultimately fared even worse.
President Obama’s ego and self-absorption apparently required him to be public all the time. According to CBS News,
there were only 21 days in his first year where Obama did not make at
least one public appearance. The statistics from CBS were amazing: 411
speeches comments and remarks of which 52 were on Vaporcare, 158
interviews, visits to 58 US cities and 21 foreign nations, 160 flights
on Air Force One, 193 flights on Marine One, etc. etc. In short, it was
Obama time, all the time.
While familiarity doesn’t always breed contempt, it appeared to be
in play with President Obama, especially after a series of
disappointments. Campaign promises were broken, promised transparency
became a joke, foreign policy was seen wanting if not embarrassing,
terror defenses seemed diminished, Chicago-type deals were worked, and
other real-world inconveniences intruded on “The One’s” plan for his
Camelot. These disappointments diminished the Obama mystique, but would
not have killed his Presidency.
Obama’s continued hard sell, including obvious lies regarding the
bill, revealed him to be little more than an unethical salesman
attempting to foist off a defective product on a stupid group of
customers. In Obama Wins Oscar, where his style was compared to the motley sales force from the movie Glengary Glen Ross, it was observed:
Quite the performance, just not something most would
expect from the President of the United States. The exchange seemed
more appropriate for used car salesmen or “boiler-room” stock scams.
In short, the performance seemed both desperate and dishonest. My
thought was, “Would I buy aluminum siding from this man?”
VaporCare cost Obama whatever credibility he had left. His campaign
guise of nobility and omnipotence was revealed as fraudulent when he
used the approach of an unethical used-car salesman. Messiahs don’t
sell snake oil. Anointed Ones don’t engage in fraud. The high hopes and
dreams that accompanied Obama’s ascendancy to the Presidency (and
ultimately Mount Rushmore) came crashing down when he lowered himself
to selling the VaporCare lie. His image changed from The Exalted Leader
to just another Used Car Salesman from Chicago.
Obama
jokingly referred to the ending of the movie Thelma and Louise, saying
health care would not end that way. But VaporCare did go over the cliff
(or Freudian slip, “precipice”). With it went what remained of Obama’s reputation, image and Presidency.
VaporCare tarnished all its proponents. The Democrats felt the voter
wrath in several elections, none of which should have been close. All
turned into spectacular, seemingly inexplicable, losses. VaporCare
appears out of reach for now. The Left is angry, the Right is angry
and voting results show that Independents are running from the
Democrats in droves.
Polls portend bad results ahead for Democrats. That spells major
problems for President Obama. A political animal’s first instinct is
survival. When re-election is jeopardized, watch out! Already one can
see the Democrats distancing themselves themselves from their
President. As the 2010 elections approach, their feelings toward their
own President are likely to be described by the , the following passage
from The Legend of Bagger Vance:
“You know you can just go ahead and creep off somewhere
I’ll tell folk you took sick… Truth be told, ain’t nobody gonna really
object… In fact, they’d probably be happy as bugs in a bake shop to see
you pack up and go home…”
This President was likely doomed to failure without the Vaporcare
debacle, but realization would not have come so soon. All style and no
substance can fool some of the people only some of the time. Form and
flair work in a campaign, but they are no substitute for governance.
VaporCare was the tipping point. Visions of Obama’s greatness were
replaced with a tawdry picture of political opportunism and
corruptness, self aggrandizement and Chicago-style gutter politics.
Stripped of his veneer, Obama was found to have no substance. Many
feared this outcome from the beginning, but foolishly hoped that
charisma, myth and sizzle would be enough to succeed. Obama quickly
transformed from public celebrity to public nuisance. Talented people
will be tolerated for self-absorption and arrogance. For incompetents,
these traits are massive liabilities.
Obama’s Presidency has been reduced from the Messianic to the
tawdry, all as a result of VaporCare. When his image died, so did his
Presidency. Stick a fork in the Obama Presidency. It is over.
The
political excitement, however, is just beginning. The 2010 elections
will not be pretty. Dems will be fighting for their political lives and
running away from Obama. This will be cruel, much like a Mexican
bullfight with Obama as the bull and his own party as the matadors.
Like the bull, Obama will not comprehend what is happening. His
self-image and former cult-like status will add to his confusion. His
propensity toward anger and intolerance towards anyone in his way will
make for a glorious, bloody fight. But the matadors have both numbers
and experience. They will finally overwhelm and kill the bull, but not
without substantial losses in their own ranks.
Bullfights are never pretty. Especially ones that drag on for three years.
By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 27th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/27/president-hoovers-state-of-the-union/
Herbert Hoover
I
don’t know what President Obama will try to sell tonight in his State
of The Union speech. I do know that what he says will have no relation
to reality. But that could be said of any President in recent years
with respect to this occasion. This particular President has
speech-making skills that few of his predecessors had. He has an
unusual ability to turn nothing into a great sounding speech.
Tonight will be little different. Talking heads, still in his camp,
will rave about the speech after it is delivered. You will hear how he
has regained his mojo and is now going to solve the economic problems.
That, of course, will be nonsense. As any number of people have
observed, what sounds like a great speech from this President does not
read like one. Once removed from the pomp and circumstances associated
with his stylistic delivery, his words wobble and usually collapse.
That is why reading, as opposed to listening, is the better way to
understand what has been proposed.
To put tonight’s speech into perspective, there is only one question
that should be asked: “Why Mr. President did you squander an entire
year on your fraudulent health care reform at the expense of dealing
with the problems of Main Street?” That question should be crawling
across every television screen in this country while he speaks.
The real State of the Union, as opposed to what you will hear, is captured by Michael Ledeen:
Banks are not lending, companies are not hiring, because
they are afraid of what Obama will do next. Both are afraid of onerous
taxes, including new health care burdens, and the banks fear new
regulations and the consequences of the recently declared war on evil
bankers by the president. Seniors are afraid they will be deprived of
medical treatment. Juniors are afraid they are going to be forced to
buy health insurance they don’t think they need. Across the board,
Americans are afraid they’re not going to find work, and won’t be able
to afford a house. And, as the Massachusetts vote showed, Americans
are worried about threats from abroad, worried about Iran, afraid of
terrorist attacks, and afraid the Obama Administration doesn’t take all
this seriously enough. As Scott Brown put it, most Americans think our
tax dollars should go to fighting terrorists, not to pay lawyers to
defend terrorists.
Rhetoric,
no matter how majestic, cannot alter this reality. There is nothing
that Obama can say (or is willing to do) to change the conditions
outlined above. Virtually everything he has done or tried to do has
made things worse. For one year, his policies resulted in producing a
deeper hole. These problems are now intractable.
There is one unexpected thing that might occur. It is possible that
the rhetorical magician has spent all his magic. As described in Healthcare Vaporizes Obama Presidency,
Obama’s used-car-salesman approach to selling health care greatly
damaged his “Messiah” image, at least amongst the non Kool Aid
drinkers. It will not reflect in the media post-speech analysis,
because most of them are still imbibing. It may show up in polling data
a few days after the speech.
Regardless of the post analysis, the irony is that Obama rode into
office as the new Roosevelt. He will be driven out as the new Hoover.
His most vigorous pursuers and critics will likely be irate Democrats.
He may escape the tar, feathers and rope of his pursuers. He will not
do as well with the historians.
A shorter version of this post appeared on American Thinker
By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 29th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/29/obama-denied-parole/
As expected, the State of the
Union (SOTU) speech was delivered with the usual élan from the gifted
orator, President Obama. Unexpected, for most, was the content of the
speech. President Obama “doubled down” on policies soundly rejected by
the American people.
For a candidate who was so politically adept, his tone deafness in office is startling. From Jonah Goldberg:
Since taking office, Obama has continued to see the
presidency as the perfect perch from which to campaign for a job he
already has. The solution to every problem the White House runs into is
“more Obama.” Much of this stems from Obama’s own arrogance. When
people disagree with his health-care proposals, it is because they
don’t really understand them or because they are misdirecting their
anger at him. When Rep. Marion Berry, D-Ark., warned the president that
the 2010 midterms were shaping up to be a replay of the 1994 Republican
tsunami, Obama reportedly told him that there was one important
difference between then and now: “Me.”

Voters
soundly rejected Obama’s programs in Virginia, New Jersey and
Massachusetts. Additional support for this verdict continues in the
form of declining poll numbers for both the President and Democrats in
general. Yet, “like a drunk in a bowling shirt at the craps table who
insists his losses don’t disprove his ‘system’ for winning, Obama stands behind his bet.”
The State of the Union was a chance for Obama to regain his mojo and
demonstrate the political savvy he showed during his campaign. Instead,
we got a surreal performance replete with inconsistencies and outright
distortions, if not lies. For an out-of-touch ideologue, the speech
might have made sense. For a political leader, however, it was a
disaster.
Perhaps the best way of understanding the political foolishness of
the State of the Union speech is to view it in terms of a Parole Board
Hearing. In this setting, convicts usually come in to apologize for
their past actions in the hope of early release. They express
contrition, state how much they have changed and how they will become
solid citizens if only given the chance.
In
a way, the SOTU speech was Obama’s Parole Board hearing. The American
public had “convicted” him. Now Obama had his chance to make a case for
his “release.” Instead of providing a mea culpa and promising to adjust
policies, Obama, in effect, defiantly announced that he was proud of
his “crimes.” Furthermore, if released, he intended to recommit them.
This performance was political insanity. It was the performance of a
hard-core ideologue (“hardened criminal” that showed no understanding
or remorse for his crimes). It revealed that he believed in what he had
done, and public opinion be damned.
One has to wonder what or whether this Administration was thinking.
The approach was not one that made sense in either a parole hearing or
a political setting. Were they so arrogant to believe that the court of
public opinion did not matter? Apparently they were.
The decision returned from the Parole Board read as follows:
“This person is self-consumed, arrogant and out-of-touch. His
condition may be pathological. He is unable or unwilling to accept
reality or advice. He has no intention of reforming his behavior. His
idea of changing direction is to substitute the somewhat obscure Smoke
and Mirrors for his previous shady modus operandi of Hope and Change.
There is no evidence of remorse. There is no recognition that he
understands that what he has done is wrong. Based on a full analysis of
the relevant information, there can be no basis for assuming that he
has been rehabilitated. On these grounds, the Parole Board of the
American Public has no choice but to reject his request for release.
Next earliest review date will be November 2010.”
By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 15th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/15/free-healthcare/

One
of the simplest economic concepts to understand is the theory of
demand. As the price of a good to users decreases, demand or use of
that good will increase. As the price of a good approaches zero,
theoretically the demand or use of the good will approach infinity.
Nowhere is this principle better demonstrated than healthcare.
Here are some simple anecdotes from my past. In the 1950s, doctors
made house-calls and charged nominal amounts for their services ($10
seems about right).
In 1962 I dislocated my shoulder in a charity alumni football game
and was whisked to the hospital by ambulance. X-rays and re-positioning
the shoulder were required. My father paid all the fees out of pocket.
I am not sure what the cost was, but my father did not carry around
great amounts of money. My guess would be in the $40 – $50 range.
In 1976, our four-year old son was awake all night with an ear
problem, which ended with bleeding from the ear. My wife and I were
panicked, especially because we had located to a new city only that
week. The next morning (Sunday), we called a neighbor and received a
recommendation for a pediatric practice. The doctor made a special
visit to the office at 2:00 that afternoon and saw our child. The cost
was $15.00.
So, what happened to our healthcare system? Medicare and Medicaid
were instituted and that separated the price from the actual cost of
the service. Government involvement soon expanded to the point that the
market for healthcare ceased to be a free market. While prices to
consumers were driven down via Medicare and other third-party payers,
costs were not. Demand increased dramatically, as the services were
almost “free,” at least to the user.
The following information, posted by Glenn Reynolds, shows what happened over time:
VERONIQUE DE RUGY: The High Cost of No Price: A simple chart will help you understand why healthcare spending has gone out of control.
“Economists have shown that if a good’s price is zero or decreasing,
then the demand for this good will likely increase. In 2008, consumers
were only directly responsible for 11.9 percent of total national
healthcare expenditures, down from 43 percent in 1965, according to new
data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. This means
that someone other than consumers pays roughly 88 percent of all
healthcare costs, giving consumers little incentive to mind costs and
much incentive to over-consume.”
Now we are on the verge of making the problem worse with the
implementation of so-called health care reform. Believing that the
price we pay is the same as the cost of a product is a common economic
fallacy. P.J. O’Rourke colorfully described the problem:
If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it’s free.
O’Rourke, based solely on this observation, should be inducted into the quote Hall of Fame.
This post originally appeared on American Thinker.
By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 5th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/05/the-legend-of-bagger-obama/

“… you don’t ever know where he comes from or where he’s going.”
It is 2008. An unknown figure steps from the mist. No one knows his
background. There is no birth certificate. No college transcripts or
other records. No known friends. No apparent experience. A virtual
blank slate stares at you. Are you watching a remake of the eponymous
“Legend of Bagger Vance?” No, you are witnessing the emergence of
Barack Obama on his march to power.
“The Legend of Bagger Vance” was a Robert Redford directed movie
made in 2000. The principal actors were Will Smith, Matt Damon,
Charlize Theron and Jack Lemmon (his last movie). The film was about a
fictional golf event in 1931, held in Georgia. Smith played the central
role of Bagger Vance, a mystical and mysterious caddy. Damon played
Rannulph Junuh, whose life, golf game and love interest Bagger
magically rejuvenated. The story was set against an epic golf match
Junuh played against Walter Hagen and Bobby Jones.
Awesomestories.com provided the following background for the film:
As Steven Pressfield (author of The Legend of Bagger Vance) has acknowledged, Bagger Vance, and the story of his legend, are based on the Hindu epic and scriptural poem, the Bhagavad-Gita. … In the epic, Bhagavan is the “Supreme Personality” who helps his follower, Arjuna, understand much about war and about life.
In a review of the film, the following observations were offered:
… co-producer Michael Nozik has described Bagger as a
“Native American coyote trickster,” and costar [Charlize] Theron has
expressed her fascination with how “you don’t ever know where he comes
from or where he’s going.”
The Legend of Bagger Obama started with a masterfully crafted and
executed presidential campaign. It was a campaign of personality,
centered on a young, unknown, but messianic figure. The Clinton
machine, the most feared force in politics, was taken out first. Then
an inept Senator McCain was easily defeated.
Visions of Camelot redux filled the media. Millions supported the
shadowy and charismatic man. A groundswell of popular support, hope and
goodwill ushered him into office. Marvin Olasky captured much of the
excitement in a recent post, especially that of the media:
Tom Brokaw compared Obama’s inauguration to the
overthrow of Communism in 1989: “I was in Prague when that happened. .
. . The streets were filled with joy.” CBS Early Show
co-anchor Maggie Rodriguez rhapsodized, “A new day is dawning here in
the nation’s capital. . . . Does it get any better, or more beautiful,
or more spectacular, than this?”
The
International community was just as infatuated. Obama was awarded the
Nobel Peace Prize, ostensibly based on nothing more than imagery and
expectations.
The
trappings of office added additional majesty. He was a rock star who
had assumed the highest office in the land. His presence dominated the
airwaves and newspapers. Exaggerations became truth if he uttered them.
This “Supreme Personality” seemed to believe his mere presence and
pronouncements constituted governance. Management and decision-making
seemed beneath him. In many ways, it was as if Bagger Vance, himself,
had ascended to the White House. It was just how Bagger might govern.
Mere pronouncements, filled with mystical wisdom, would solve the
world’s problems. Presence and image would replace actual decisions.
That was what Bagger knew and did.
Movies are easier to script than real-life. Bagger Obama’s “legend”
soon began to falter. A teleprompter malfunction exposed oratory skills
that appeared to be no better than his ridiculed, illiterate
predecessor. Campaign promises were quickly abandoned. Numerous
embarrassments abroad developed, as did a pattern of waffling on issues.
Unlike a movie, real-life has angles never intended to be filmed.
Campaigns can be orchestrated. After election, all camera angles are in
play. The young emperor soon began to be viewed as without clothes and
without crown. Some of his biggest supporters in the media began
criticizing, even satirizing Bagger. Olasky described:
Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show on Comedy Central
is often a leading indicator of sentiment among younger voters. Stewart
last month waxed sarcastic regarding not only Democratic spending and
deficit-creation, but also about Obama’s personal style of implying
frankness and then serving up bromides.
Maureen Dowd’s New York Times column is often a leading
indicator of sentiment among older liberal voters. She wrote recently,
“The animating spirit that electrified his political movement has
sputtered out. If we could see a Reduced Shakespeare summary of Obama’s
presidency so far, it would read: Dither, dither, speech. Foreign trip,
bow, reassure. Seminar, summit. Shoot a jump shot with the guys, throw
out the first pitch in mom jeans. Compromise, concede, close the deal.
Dither, dither, water down, news conference.”
Stripped of his aura, Bagger Obama was reduced to an ordinary man,
subject to ordinary judgment and scrutiny. He was seen as just another
politician. “The One” had morphed into “Just Another One” (ordinary
politician,
that is).
Without his halo, Bagger Obama’s campaign phrases sounded sophomoric
and empty. “Yes we can!” had no meaning. “Hope and Change,”
conveniently imprecise and effective in a campaign, was useless for
governing. The public passed judgment now in terms of effectiveness
rather than awe. Warts and blemishes were apparent with the Messiah
lens removed.
The prolonged Afghanistan troop decision, scripted as the measured
consideration of a wise leader, did not play well. It was merely
another politician stalling while he searched for a political strategy.
The “correct” war of the campaign was now just a political problem.
Geopolitics or troop safety seemed irrelevant.
The Gitmo base closing represented another campaign-promise fiasco.
The decision was postponed for more than a year, and the base may never
be closed. Attempts to transfer prisoners to other places were clumsy
and replete with political bribes.
Health-care reform morphed through endless iterations. At the end,
there was no discernible logic behind the plan. Inconsistencies, deals,
falsified data and outright lies were evident to anyone willing to
look. Despite the problems and unpopularity, healthcare moved forward
not unlike an ancient pagan ritual. Congressional Democrats sacrificed
the best healthcare system in the world and the American taxpayer to
their God, Bagger Obama.
Nowhere was the lack of leadership more apparent than in the
economic sphere. Promises and forecasts were consistently wrong. The
vaunted stimulus package was little more than large-scale looting,
cronyism and vote-buying. Increasingly non-government economists agreed
that economic policies were harmful.
In response, the Administration maintained that a recovery was under
way. But citizens knew that stocks were lower than they were in 1999,
no net job creation occurred this century and foreclosures and
bankruptcies were increasing. No alternative, credible plan was offered.
Bagger Vance was able to rehabilitate Junah’s golf game to the point
that Junah could compete with Hagen and Jones. If Junah had lost the
tournament by 17 strokes, there would have been no story and no legend.
Bagger Vance’s magic was “real” in the sense that he could mystically
create outcomes.
Bagger Obama strode onto the stage selling the same magic. His
“game” was our economy and geopolitical role in the world. Since his
arrival, conditions in both areas have worsened. Bagger’s magic did not
work. He is losing
his game by much more than 17 strokes.
Obama sold a product he could not deliver. Image and reality
collided, and reality won. The unfolding tragedy is that everyone but
Bagger Obama seems to realize this. What was once viewed by people as
confidence, control and wisdom is now seen as narcissism, naiveté and
self-absorption. Competence is no longer presumed, it is doubted. Yet,
Bagger continues playing his role.
We are at a dangerous point in both the Presidency of Barack Obama
and the country. Does the Administration have any idea of what to do?
Do they believe they can continue to use Hollywood imagery in lieu of
real, hard decisions? Hype, rhetoric and Greek columns are irrelevant.
Markets and enemies are immune to dramaturgy. The President, his
minions and the country are apt to find that out shortly.
For Bagger Obama, it is difficult to visualize how this ends. It is
unlikely that he can rehabilitate his presidency, because there is no
way to rehabilitate the phony image. A different image might work, but
it is doubtful that people would fall for such a marketing ruse.
Americans are forgiving people, but they have never been kind to con
men. The most likely scenario is that Bagger Obama is a one-term
embarrassment to the country, the world and the Democrat party.
Obama’s fiction was great. He was a wonderful actor who was able to
effectively play a President on TV, for awhile. The performance was all
form and no substance, fine for a movie but not real life. The Fall
sweeps have come and gone, and the Obama show did not pass muster.
Unlike TV, mercilessly this show cannot be cancelled for three more
years.
Somewhere from beyond the mist the real Bagger must be chuckling as he watches. Perhaps he would provide the following advice:
“You know you can just go ahead and creep off somewhere
I’ll tell folk you took sick… Truth be told, ain’t nobody gonna really
object… In fact, they’d probably be happy as bugs in a bake shop to see
you pack up and go home…”
For Bagger Vance this may be humorous. For most of us, however, the next three years will seem like a dangerous eternity.
Monty Pelerin www.economicnoise.com montypelerin@gmail.com

By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 4th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/04/rosenberg-is-right-on-again/
Rosenberg is Right-On. Here is his daily email with links to the
full piece. The only part that I might take issue with is his
contrarian play on T-bonds.
The emboldening was added by me.
Breakfast with Dave
January 4, 2010
REVIEWING SOME 2010 MACRO AND MARKET THEMES
Everyone is pre-occupied with the Fed’s exit strategy this year. But there
is no such strategy because it is evident that the economy will never
be able to recover without sustained doses of government stimulus. Interest rates are either going to be in a trading range or trend lower. We had mentioned emphatically a month ago that the
Treasury market was at near-term risk, but looking ahead, bull
flatteners in bonds are very likely going to be the best strategy, if
for any other reason that the consensus is positioned the other way.
We had also warned that the bearish stance on the U.S. dollar was too broad and that we could see a
near-term countertrend rally that would cause a reversal in commodity
prices and gold, which would open up a nice buying opportunity; that
time has come.
RECESSION MAY NOT BE OVER JUST YET
Quote of the month goes to … the former National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER) dean of dating business cycles, Martin Feldstein:
“The recession isn’t over.” In a Bloomberg Radio interview on December 17th.
That seems pretty blunt, doesn’t it? But he may be right.
Imagine that the best we could do with the gargantuan fiscal and
monetary stimulus was a 2.2% annualized growth in real GDP in the third
quarter (real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) was closer to a 1% annual
rate!). This result must be put into three perspectives:
1. It came in the face of $100 billion of real stimulus out of Washington. This means that 90%
of the growth in Q3 came courtesy of Uncle Sam’s generosity. In other
words, the economy basically stagnated in the third quarter when GDP is
measured “organically”.
2. What is normal is that the first quarter of post-recession growth is that real GDP expands at a 7.3% annual rate; 2.2% is really nothing to get excited about — it’s actually quite worrisome.
3. Never in recorded history has growth coming out of a string of declines been as weak as what we just witnessed. Considering all the government efforts to
usher in a V-shaped recovery, what we saw unfold in the real economy in
Q3 – admittedly quite divorced from the action in financial markets – was, in a word, sad.
By
Monty Pelerin, posted January 4th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/01/04/u-s-governments-road-to-perdition/
James Quinn has posted another very informative piece.
It is especially useful for those who don’t comprehend the degrees
of financial chicanery and deceit to which our politicians have
resorted . The article will also enable you to understand the
mathematical impossibility of the Federal Government honoring its
social promises and debt obligations. There will be major defaults!
Understanding the criminal irresponsibility of our politicians might also provide you with your own Howard Beale moment: See Here
The article is highly recommended. While I would propose a somewhat
different solution to altering the situation (not tar, feathers and
rope, although they are deserved), Quinn’s proposal would be a vast
improvement over what we currently have. READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE
Christmas is a time when kids tell Santa what they
want and adults pay for it. Deficits are when adults tell the
government what they want – and their kids pay for it.
Richard Lamm
Decade after decade, Americans have voted for intellectually and
morally bankrupt dullards that promise them more goodies under the
tree. Every day is Christmas in Washington DC. Long-term means the next
election cycle to these traitors of the Republic. I have written ad
nauseum about the impending financial cataclysm that awaits our nation.
I have spent countless hours documenting the unsustainable path of our
politicians’ financial decisions and lack of courage in addressing the
forthcoming tragedy that grows closer by the day. Our political system
is so corrupt and dysfunctional that there is absolutely no chance that
our path will be altered at the voting booth. Government programs are
fashioned, but never finished. The IRS tax code consists of 3.4 million
words covering 7,500 pages of payoffs to business lobbyists. Simplicity
is a virtue. The politicians who are bought and sold by corporate
interests prefer complexity and obscuring the truth. Everyone knows
that the government cannot fulfill the fiscal promises they have
already made. Instead of dealing with this reality using intelligence,
courage and conviction, the weak kneed politicians that slither the
halls of Congress have chosen to add a brand new bloated entitlement
program guaranteed to detonate in our faces. This is the existing
reality. There is nothing I can do that will change this reality.
Instead, I will propose a new model.
Road to Perdition Scenario
‘Government help’ to business is just as disastrous
as government persecution… the only way a government can be of service
to national prosperity is by keeping its hands off.
Ayn Rand
Politicians do not care about budgets, inflation, or the value of
the U.S. dollar. They care about power, personal enrichment and being
re-elected. In fiscal 2000, the US government had $1.545 trillion of
receipts and $1.458 trillion of expenses, resulting in a surplus of $87
billion that year. A mindless government bureaucrat doesn’t conclude
that the surge in receipts was due to the internet bubble resulting in
billions of one time capital gains revenues. They should have expected
reduced revenues in future years. Nine years later government receipts
were $1.51 trillion, while expenditures had reached $3.5 trillion.
Total government outlays never go down. Obama’s FY10 budget projects
$1.649 trillion of receipts and $3.042 trillion of expenditures,
resulting in a deficit of $1.393 trillion. Deficits in the range of $1
trillion per year are projected for the next 10 years. Instead of
addressing this budget gap that will absolutely lead to economic
disintegration, politicians add new entitlements, expand our
interventionist foreign wars, and dole out pork to their corporate
backers.
Year |
On-Budget |
Receipts |
Outlays |
Surplus or Deficit(−) |
2000 |
$1,544,873 |
$1,458,451 |
$86,422 |
2001 |
$1,483,907 |
$1,516,352 |
-$32,445 |
2002 |
$1,338,074 |
$1,655,491 |
-$317,417 |
2003 |
$1,258,690 |
$1,797,108 |
-$538,418 |
2004 |
$1,345,534 |
$1,913,495 |
-$567,961 |
2005 |
$1,576,383 |
$2,069,994 |
-$493,611 |
2006 |
$1,798,872 |
$2,233,366 |
-$434,494 |
2007 |
$1,933,150 |
$2,275,303 |
-$342,153 |
2008 |
$1,866,280 |
$2,508,130 |
-$641,850 |
2009 estimate |
$1,501,784 |
$3,479,621 |
-$1,977,837 |
2010 estimate |
$1,649,422 |
$3,041,947 |
-$1,392,525 |
In the early 1980s, before the three decade long debt induced frat
party, the National Debt was between $900 billion and $1.6 trillion.
Today, the National Debt is $12.3 trillion, up 1,250% in three decades.
Continue reading U.S. Government’s Road to Perdition
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