What if the Dollar is replaced?

I was wondering what the effects would be of a country adopting a new currency.

I ask because it doesn't seem likely that China & friends will continue to buy American debt forever, and surely the U.S wouldn't follow the path to hyper-inflation. That lesson has been learned enough times... right? With the recent posturing for 'global solutions to global problems' the idea of a global currency coming our way doesn't seem too far fetched.

 

The extent of my knowledge on this subject is that several countries have reverted to more sound currencies after hyper-inflation had taken it's toll, and that it had a stabilizing effect. What would happen to peoples (and governments) debts? What are the negative effects?

I guess the question is, what commodity is backing the this new dollar?  If we assume that there is none, I think we can see where that would go. It would be like who is on first and who is king of the hill.

The US will have hyperinflation.There is no other option.

The US is trillions in debt. On budget it's about $11 trillion in debt. Off budget it is well above $60 trillion.

Once China and others stop buying US debt, the US government will be completely insolvent. The government will have no choice but to print trillions in order to maintain the appearance of being solvent and to keep the American public happy with their social programs.

A new global reserve currency would ruin the US dollar even faster. The only reason the US government is able to continue printing money as it does is because it's accepted all over the world. When foreigners accept US dollars, they diminish the supply of US dollars inside the United States. In other words, we are exporting inflation.

Once the world stops using US dollars as reserve, all US dollars outside the US will flood back in, causing inflation inside US borders. Furthermore, all newly printed dollars will stay inside the US as people stop accepting it, making all newly printed notes more inflationary than ever before.

 

Montcliff:

The US will have hyperinflation.There is no other option.

The US is trillions in debt. On budget it's about $11 trillion in debt. Off budget it is well above $60 trillion.

Once China and others stop buying US debt, the US government will be completely insolvent. The government will have no choice but to print trillions in order to maintain the appearance of being solvent and to keep the American public happy with their social programs.

A new global reserve currency would ruin the US dollar even faster. The only reason the US government is able to continue printing money as it does is because it's accepted all over the world. When foreigners accept US dollars, they diminish the supply of US dollars inside the United States. In other words, we are exporting inflation.

Once the world stops using US dollars as reserve, all US dollars outside the US will flood back in, causing inflation inside US borders. Furthermore, all newly printed dollars will stay inside the US as people stop accepting it, making all newly printed notes more inflationary than ever before.

 

Perhaps its me just hoping (Probably), but I don't think we will have hyperinflation. Really bad inflation and stagnant economy? Yes. Hyperinflation? No. If we were to have hyperinflation I don't think it would come for a long time, and would be preceeded by many years of bad inflation first. If America was to suffer hyperinflation, that would mean 1) Extreme World Instability and 2)Total economic Collapse. No country right now wants that. An entire country, not to mention many world peoples whose entire incomes and the like have been wiped out (we also have nukes). It is still a dollar world. Our government would do shock therapy to prevent hyperinflation.

Kmalone:

I guess the question is, what commodity is backing the this new dollar?  If we assume that there is none, I think we can see where that would go. It would be like who is on first and who is king of the hill.

I personally think that at some point, the idea of an energy backed dollar will eventually surface as a somewhat serious political idea, in an effort to further rev up the green economy to stave off hyperinflation.  

Politicans wouldn't be able to resist the ability to boldy declare that this "crisis", while terrible, will teach us a different way, & thus the appeal of political & economical transformation (which would be mostly positive, from a political standpoint, to get the "votes" & cmapaign funding, of course).  

As for if it would ever be viable, I'm not sure, & even if it would work & proved to be a positive thing, I highly doubt the US government would bother regardless, due to the past & present behavior.  

I do however think that the dollar being backed by a commodity at all, versus now, would be a step in the right direction, however.

They have announced that they will back the dollar with....

 

 

paper.

Montcliff:

The US is trillions in debt. On budget it's about $11 trillion in debt. Off budget it is well above $60 trillion.

I am not familiar with "off budget" debt, and I find that number shocking.  Do you have any sources to back that up?  Where do you get reliable information about off budget government debt?

Thanks,

The Rev

The Rev:

I am not familiar with "off budget" debt, and I find that number shocking.  Do you have any sources to back that up?  Where do you get reliable information about off budget government debt?

The debt we see at it's face is 11 trillion, as you know. But when we figure in government liabilities (social security, medicare/medicaid, etc.), the number is closer to 50 or 60 billion. After that, you have to factor in interest on all the loans we take out as a country.

And that's just the federal government.

Oh, ok.  I see what you meant now.  Thanks.

I think it's safe to say that putting your money into the stock of printing press companies is going to make you money in the near future.

The Rev

Sorry the paper is the medium not the backing.  We will let you try again if you want.

Nitroadict:

Kmalone:

I guess the question is, what commodity is backing the this new dollar?  If we assume that there is none, I think we can see where that would go. It would be like who is on first and who is king of the hill.

I personally think that at some point, the idea of an energy backed dollar will eventually surface as a somewhat serious political idea, in an effort to further rev up the green economy to stave off hyperinflation.  

Politicans wouldn't be able to resist the ability to boldy declare that this "crisis", while terrible, will teach us a different way, & thus the appeal of political & economical transformation (which would be mostly positive, from a political standpoint, to get the "votes" & cmapaign funding, of course).  

As for if it would ever be viable, I'm not sure, & even if it would work & proved to be a positive thing, I highly doubt the US government would bother regardless, due to the past & present behavior.  

I do however think that the dollar being backed by a commodity at all, versus now, would be a step in the right direction, however.

You last sentence is exactly my point.  Because there is nothing to back the dolloar we will continue print money beyond a controlling commodity. I dont care if its corn, tea or otherwise. As long as there is no self governing dollar back commodity we will continue to see money fluctate in value and produce as the government sees fit.

It wouldn't be any better; it would be replaced with a NWC.  I read that the dollar was 95% devalued when Dr. Paul launched his Audit the Fed Campaign earlier this year.

It will never happen, but there are 4 Amendments I'd love to see passed:

Stable Currency Amendment [get rid of the FR, and return to the Gold standard with a Treasury Dept. Printed Currency, to replace FR Notes]

Liberty Amendment (fiscal).
2.5% maximum national sales tax; cannot be raised.
Repeals all other Federal Taxes, none of which can be restored.
Abolishes all Depts, except the Treasury Dept., State Dept., and Defense Department (moved into the White House) as well as abolition of all Federal Agencies. Only 8 Military Bases remain open. Pentagon no longer used All bases and embassies outside the 48 continental United States are to be abandoned by the U.S. and never re-used; void all of the "special treatment" Acts.

$300 million budget for the following, and only for the following.
The Federal Government may prosecute for 3 crimes and only 3 crimes:
Piracy, Treason, and Counterfeiting.
Congressmember salary; VP salary
President
Treasury
State 
Defense Sec.
Supreme Court Justice Salary
White House Operating
USSC Building Operating
Captiol Hill Operating
1 Federal Prison
Military
Federal Roads maintenance
USPS

Money may not be borrowed; all debt is void.

Peace and Security Amendment: U.S. military may not occupy land other than the 50 United States.

And that's still not anarcho-capitalist.  If I can't have self-government, than a small government democratic Republic is the least they could give me.

Not one, but two other Reserve Currencys are being proposed. The first one is proposed by Russia and seconded by China. It will probably also include south asian countries except Singapore. The proposed backing is gold, rubles, yuan, oil, and NG. This one is furthest along. I haven't heard that it is finalized yet. The second one is of the the South American countries. Parts of this one are already in effect by means of currency swaps between Brazil and Argentina  another pair of countries. It might be backed by a basket of south american curriencies.

If the first one becomes effective, the mid-east would probably join it also but at a later date. At first they might use both the USD and the new Russia-China currency.

That would leave only the EU, Canada, Australia and NZ with the USD. The USD is backed by the "faith and trust" vested in the American Taxpayer.

Since it was announced yesterday that the resultant owners of GM will be the gov't and the UAW we can now see that our beloved Law, specifically Contract Law, has been thrown to the winds. The GM bond-holders who had the most money invested get 10%. All American Taxpayers who invest in businesses will cease investing in any business that is subsidized in any way by the gov't. This will further depress the economy. What will they invest in instead? Unsubsidized businesses until they find out that in a gov't controlled economy they can't succeed. Then in gold and the other Reserve Currencies.

If the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) get together and form a final non-USD Reserve Currency, everyone would use it instead of the USD. Everyone except the US which I think will hold out forever and keep printing money.

Today a PEW poll reported that 8% of people over 40 were in favor of capitalism, but 33% of people under 40 were in favor of socialism, given a choice of the two. This is very, very disappointing news. It's up to the generation in college and high school today to prepare for survival and revolution.

Can you point me to your source. I would like to read more about these proposals.

 

thanks.

Kmalone, this news is about 1.5 months old, so I don't have any links today. Also sorry for not replying sooner, but I've been away. I get the Wall Street Journal delivered and online, also search Reuters, The Economist, and other news services.

The more recent news is about the SDR's. These would be Special Drawing Rights issued by the IMF to the member governments. Currently there is a proposal that the IMF increase (dramatically) it's gold holding. There are several ways they can do this. One is that member governments can contribute gold or money. I think that went down and now they're talking about IMF selling some of it's gold to get more cash (although I didn't understand what that had to do with SDR's). An SDR would somehow function like a world reserve currency, but only for governments.  I'n not aware of a final agreement on this.

It is interesting that though the $USD is not backed by anything, the SDR's would clearly be backed by at least a portion of gold. This implys, to me, that the $USD is not really backed by nothing (we still have our gold reserves), and would explain why the US is so committed to holding down the price of gold.

 

Also a correction to my earlier post on this thread. The PEW poll was 8% over 40 were in favor of socialism, not capitalism. I don't know where the edit button is.