The third confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen has been confirmed a few hours ago, and that is within less than 2 weeks time. I dig up some info. on the technical analysis, and found out that it has been fairly accurate in the past - from 1985 on it was able to accurately predict market crashes.
It is also advised that if you have money in the market, you should take it out.
Can anyone comment on this? Lend me your opinion.
Uncertainty is the watchword of the day. Housing prices are still being propped up. Banks are still being bailed out. The market has not cleared. Whether they will succeed in "pulling it off" yet again and dupe the markets into going back to business-as-usual is still an open question but I think, this time, they've pushed it over the precipice. The market just won't get over its jitters and everybody (except the hopeless dupes) is still in fight-or-flight mode as far as I can tell. I think it goes without saying that your money should never have been in the market since Fall 2008 unless you are a professional day trader who knows how to make money on the upside and downside. And even long-time day traders should watch themselves.
Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Richard Daughty are unanimous: gold, silver, oil and ag commodities are the place to be. Normally, commodities can be dangerous vis-a-vis cash/bonds but that rule no longer holds where you have certain, massive inflation on the near term horizon. No matter what happens, at the end of the day, a bushel of wheat is still a bushel of wheat. Sure, a bumper crop might reduce its value 10% or 20% but the risk that that could happen is still less than the certainty of inflation, likely in the 100% region over the next couple years.
Clayton -
25% of all major declines since 1985 were preceded by a HO. That doesn't make it 'accurate' (although I personally believe it can be useful) - it just means there's an increased chance of a pretty serious decline in the stock market. And it doesn't mean we'll have a major crash. According to the HO there is a 77% chance of a 5% or more decline within 40 days after it occurs. Then there's a 51% chance of 10% decline and so on (those probabilities may be a little off - I haven't taken a financial management class since last year so my memory is a little fuzzy).
rosstaylor: The third confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen has been confirmed a few hours ago, and that is within less than 2 weeks time. I dig up some info. on the technical analysis, and found out that it has been fairly accurate in the past - from 1985 on it was able to accurately predict market crashes. It is also advised that if you have money in the market, you should take it out. Can anyone comment on this? Lend me your opinion.
"Financial Safety Rule #1 says: despite many claims to the contrary, no one, not even your favorite economist or investment advisor, can reliably predict future economic events........."
Regards,onebornfree
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