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Poll volatility

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Wheylous Posted: Fri, Nov 11 2011 6:50 PM

Whoa!!!!! Check out the two latest polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Gingrich coming up, both Romney and Cain down, Perry quite hurt, RP constant.

Their calculation of the average is in fact not good (because they simply average the percentages, while they should be taking a weighted average according to the poll size), so here is a better calculation:

22.1 (Romney)

22.4 (Cain)

13.67858 (Gingrich)

9.81205 (Perry)

7.850677 (Paul)

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Wheylous replied on Mon, Nov 14 2011 9:48 PM

Even crazier now! Gingrich won a poll by +3! Beat Romney by 10! What?!

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bbnet replied on Mon, Nov 14 2011 10:27 PM

I got a feeling coCain and the lizard are just side show distractions to pull attention (mainly from the Teed Party) away from Paul? The nomination will probably go to someone who hasn't entered yet.

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bbnet replied on Tue, Nov 15 2011 8:18 AM

Republican Party Candidates in Four-Way Dead Heat (for Iowa primary)

... A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away. ... 

... Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire -- site of the nation’s first primary -- are better barometers of the candidate field than national surveys because voters in those states are paying more attention and are aware of their early role in shaping the Republican race. ...

Perhaps there is hope for change?

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Wheylous replied on Tue, Nov 15 2011 9:21 PM

That is amazing! Paul is essentially tied for first!

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bbnet:
I got a feeling coCain and the lizard are just side show distractions to pull attention (mainly from the Teed Party) away from Paul? The nomination will probably go to someone who hasn't entered yet.

The first Caucus is 6 weeks away you think a new candidate is not only going to start a campaign, but win the nomination?  No offense, but I think it's safe to say you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

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