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Gerald Celente: A Fraud?

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Telpeurion Posted: Thu, Mar 18 2010 8:56 PM | Locked

I've noticed a lot in the Austrian community are paying quite a bit of lip service to this so-called "prophet". What do you guys think of him? From what I've seen, he is extremely general about his predictions, and in the predictions that he did "get right" he was wrong about why. (Think bubble being caused by deregulation) Celente claims we should "buy local" of all things, as a way to survive the coming apocalypse! He was wrong about tax revolts in 2009, too. I am sure if I research more we will find he was wrong about a number of other things too.

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E. R. Olovetto replied on Thu, Mar 18 2010 9:20 PM | Locked

I heard him mentioned before but don't know that much. Here is a critical piece, but not much about predictions he whiffed on. Here is a list of his predictions.

As much as Austrians rightfully shun empiricism and scientistic model building, there is no reason to deny the thymological category and pretend to be blind.

Democracy means the opportunity to be everyone's slave.—Karl Kraus.

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Stranger replied on Thu, Mar 18 2010 9:21 PM | Locked

It's not easy making predictions, particularly about the future.

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JosephBright replied on Thu, Mar 18 2010 9:34 PM | Locked

He's a fraud. Nobody can predict the future. 

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E. R. Olovetto replied on Thu, Mar 18 2010 9:41 PM | Locked

JosephBright:

He's a fraud. Nobody can predict the future. 

I get that feeling too. Still... read.

Mises:

The environment in which man acts is shaped by natural events on the one hand and by human action on the other. The future for which he plans will be codetermined by the actions of people who are planning and acting like himself. If he wants to succeed, he must anticipate their conduct.

The uncertainty of the future is caused not only by uncertainty concerning the future actions of other people, but also by insufficient knowledge concerning many natural events that are important for action. Meteorology provides some information about the factors that determine atmospheric conditions; but this knowledge at best enables the expert to predict the weather with some likelihood for a few days, never for longer periods. There are other fields in which man's foresight is even more limited. All that man can do in dealing with such insufficiently known conditions is to use what the natural sciences give him, however scanty this may be.

Radically different from the methods applied in dealing with natural events are those resorted to by man in anticipating the conduct of his fellow men. Philosophy and science for a long time paid little attention to these methods. They were considered as unscientific and not worthy of notice on the part of serious thinkers. When philosophers began to deal with them, they called them psychological. But this term became inappropriate when the techniques of experimental psychology were developed and almost all that earlier generations had called psychology was either altogether rejected as unscientific or assigned to a class of pursuits contemptuously styled as "mere literature" or "literary psychology," The champions of experimental psychology were confident that one day their laboratory experiments would provide a scientific solution of all the problems about which, as they said, the traditional sciences of human behavior babbled in childish or metaphysical talk.

In fact, experimental psychology has nothing to say and never did say anything about the problems that people have in mind when they refer to psychology in regard to the actions of their fellow men. The primary and central problem of "literary psychology" is meaning, something that is beyond the pale of any natural science and any laboratory activities. While experimental psychology is a branch of the natural sciences, "literary psychology" deals with human action, viz., with the ideas, judgments of value, and volitions that determine action. As the term "literary psychology" is rather cumbersome and does not permit one to form a corresponding adjective, I have suggested substituting for it the term thymology.">Music

Thymology is a branch of history or, as Collingwood formulated it, it belongs in "the sphere of history."[9] It deals with the mental activities of men that determine their actions. It deals with the mental processes that result in a definite kind of behavior, with the reactions of the mind to the conditions of the individual's environment. It deals with something invisible and intangible that cannot be perceived by the methods of the natural sciences. But the natural sciences must admit that this factor must be considered as real also from their point of view, as it is a link in a chain of events that result in changes in the sphere the description of which they consider as the specific field of their studies.

In analyzing and demolishing the claims of Comte's positivism, a group of philosophers and historians known as the südwestdeutsche Schule elaborated the category of understanding (Verstehen) that had already in a less explicit sense been familiar to older authors. This specific understanding of the sciences of human action aims at establishing the facts that men attach a definite meaning to the state of their environment, that they value this state and, motivated by these judgments of value, resort to definite means in order to preserve or to attain a definite state of affairs different from that which would prevail if they abstained from any purposeful reaction. Understanding deals with judgments of value, with the choice of ends and of the means resorted to for the attainment of these ends, and with the valuation of the outcome of actions performed.

The methods of scientific inquiry are categorially not different from the procedures applied by everybody in his daily mundane comportment. They are merely more refined and as far as possible purified of inconsistencies and contradictions. Understanding is not a method of procedure peculiar only to historians. It is practiced by infants as soon as they outgrow the merely vegetative stage of their first days and weeks. There is no conscious response of man to any stimuli that is not directed by understanding.

Understanding presupposes and implies the logical structure of the human mind with all the a priori categories. The biogenetic law represents the ontogeny of the individual as an abbreviated recapitulation of the phylogeny of the species. In an analogous way one may describe changes in the intellectual structure. The child recapitulates in his postnatal development the history of mankind's intellectual evolution.[10] The suckling becomes thymologically human when it begins faintly to dawn in his mind that a desired end can be attained by a definite mode of conduct. The nonhuman animals never proceed beyond instinctive urges and conditioned reflexes.

The concept of understanding was first elaborated by philosophers and historians who wanted to refute the positivists' disparagement of the methods of history. This explains why it was originally dealt with only as the mental tool of the study of the past. But the services understanding renders to man in throwing light on the past are only a preliminary stage in the endeavors to anticipate what may happen in the future. Seen from the practical point of view, man appears to be interested in the past only in order to be able to provide for the future. The natural sciences deal with experience—which necessarily is always the record of what happened in the past—because the categories of regularity and causality render such studies useful for the guidance of technological action, which inevitably always aims at an arrangement of future conditions. The understanding of the past performs a similar service in making action as successful as possible. Understanding aims at anticipating future conditions as far as they depend on human ideas, valuations, and actions. There is, but for Robinson Crusoe before he met his man Friday, no action that could be planned or executed without paying full attention to what the actor's fellow men will do. Action implies understanding other men's reactions,

The anticipation of events in the sphere explored by the natural sciences is based upon the categories of regularity and causality. There are in some byroads bridges that would collapse if a truck loaded with ten tons passed over them. We do not expect that such a load would make the George Washington bridge tumble. We firmly trust in the categories that are the foundations of our physical and chemical knowledge.

In dealing with the reactions of our fellow men we cannot rely upon such a regularity. We assume that, by and large, the future conduct of people will, other things being equal, not deviate without special reason from their past conduct, because we assume that what determined their past conduct will also determine their future conduct. However different we may know ourselves to be from other people, we try to guess how they will react to changes in their environment. Out of what we know about a man's past behavior, we construct a scheme about what we call his character. We assume that this character will not change if no special reasons interfere, and, going a step farther, we even try to foretell how definite changes in conditions will affect his reactions. Compared with the seemingly absolute certainty provided by some of the natural sciences, these assumptions and all the conclusions derived from them appear as rather shaky; the positivists may ridicule them as unscientific. Yet they are the only available approach to the problems concerned and indispensable for any action to be accomplished in a social environment.

Understanding does not deal with the praxeological side of human action. It refers to value judgments and the choice of ends and of means on the part of our fellow men. It refers not to the field of praxeology and economics, but to the field of history. It is a thymological category. The concept of a human character is a thymological concept. Its concrete content in each instance is derived from historical experience.

No action can be planned and executed without understanding of the future. Even an action of an isolated individual is guided by definite assumptions about the actor's future value judgments and is so far determined by the actor's image of his own character.

The term "speculate" was originally employed to signify any kind of meditation and forming of an opinion. Today it is employed with an opprobrious connotation to disparage those men who, in the capitalistic market economy, excel in better anticipating the future reactions of their fellow men than the average man does. The rationale of this semantic usage is to be seen in the inability of shortsighted people to notice the uncertainty of the future. These people fail to realize that all production activities aim at satisfying the most urgent future wants and that today no certainty about future conditions is available. They are not aware of the fact that there is a qualitative problem in providing for the future. In all the writings of the socialist authors there is not the slightest allusion to be found to the fact that one of the main problems of the conduct of production activities is to anticipate the future demands of the consumers.[11]

Every action is a speculation, i.e., guided by a definite opinion concerning the uncertain conditions of the future. Even in short run activities this uncertainty prevails. Nobody can know whether some unexpected fact will not render vain all that he has provided for the next day or the next hour.

Democracy means the opportunity to be everyone's slave.—Karl Kraus.

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ptraskal replied on Sun, Apr 3 2011 12:02 AM | Locked

Perhaps you missed that thing called the"Tea Party"?

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ptraskal replied on Sun, Apr 3 2011 12:05 AM | Locked

he doesn't claim to make predictions in the cyrstal ball sense, it's just a basis of studying where we are now and extrapolting from that premise. Much like any broker might do!

 

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Phaedros replied on Sun, Apr 3 2011 12:10 AM | Locked

I used to think he was pretty good, but he just kind of goes off about everything you can think of he's bound to be right in some way.

Tumblr The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants. ~Albert Camus
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Natalie Samatar replied on Thu, Apr 7 2011 11:40 AM | Locked

I honestly have no clue why libertarians worship this guy.  He's not even a libertarian.  Hell, he's not even a good economist.  Or an economist at all, really.

"Whoever will be free must make himself free. Freedom is no fairy gift to fall into a man's lap. What is freedom? To have the will to be responsible for one's self." ~ Max Stirner
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Prateek Sanjay replied on Thu, Apr 7 2011 12:11 PM | Locked

Worse, Natalie, is that he rehashes the same progressive garbage.

DECLINE OF THE MIDDLE CLASS

END OF THE INDUSTRIAL AGE

WESTERN WORLD BECOMING NEW THIRD WORLD

EVIL WALL STREET

He should have been on Huffington Post, not here.

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John James replied on Thu, Apr 7 2011 12:45 PM | Locked

I have to admit, when I saw the avatar for the OP I got kind of intrigued that a hot chick would be on these forums.  Alas, I now realize the avatar is not the poster (as is usually the case).

Anyway, I agree, nonetheless.  I think Celente may be good about spotting trends, but I haven't seen any evidence he has any sort of solid economic foundation.  In fact, as has been pointed out, some of the things he's said point to the opposite.  And reading through those predictions, to me it seems like all I have to do to be a Celente-level forecaster is make a bunch of general predictions.  Eventually some of them will stick.  If I try hard enough, I can take what really happens and frame it into something I've said.

Seriously a lot of that stuff on that list is filled with things that didn't happen, or the results were right but the reasonings weren't even close.  And who the hell knows all the predictions they've made that didn't pan out.

I say the guy's not much better than any other forecaster.  And his economic assements/advice are terrible to boot.

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Ricky James Moore II replied on Thu, Apr 7 2011 12:50 PM | Locked

Natalie Samatar:

I honestly have no clue why libertarians worship this guy.  He's not even a libertarian.  Hell, he's not even a good economist.  Or an economist at all, really.

Yeah. He's just some fringe nut (like about 1/3rd of the LRC posters). I don't think he's a fraud, I think he's genuine. I just think he's a crank.

I will break in the doors of hell and smash the bolts; there will be confusion of people, those above with those from the lower depths. I shall bring up the dead to eat food like the living; and the hosts of dead will outnumber the living.
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DanielMuff replied on Thu, Apr 7 2011 3:40 PM | Locked

Ricky James Moore II:

Natalie Samatar:

I honestly have no clue why libertarians worship this guy.  He's not even a libertarian.  Hell, he's not even a good economist.  Or an economist at all, really.

Yeah. He's just some fringe nut (like about 1/3rd of the LRC posters). I don't think he's a fraud, I think he's genuine. I just think he's a crank.  

Which 1/3 of LRC posters?

To paraphrase Marc Faber: We're all doomed, but that doesn't mean that we can't make money in the process.
Rabbi Lapin: "Let's make bricks!"
Stephan Kinsella: "Say you and I both want to make a German chocolate cake."

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Ricky James Moore II replied on Thu, Apr 7 2011 6:18 PM | Locked

The number is arbitrary, but about 1/3rd or so of the articles I see on LRC are conspiracy nonsense, doomsday cranks and nutrition nutters.

I will break in the doors of hell and smash the bolts; there will be confusion of people, those above with those from the lower depths. I shall bring up the dead to eat food like the living; and the hosts of dead will outnumber the living.
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CernelJoson replied on Thu, Apr 7 2011 6:27 PM | Locked

John James:
I have to admit, when I saw the avatar for the OP I got kind of intrigued that a hot chick would be on these forums. Alas, I now realize the avatar is not the poster (as is usually the case).

I was intrigued that someone who is probably a /b/tard would be on these forums.

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DanielMuff replied on Thu, Apr 7 2011 10:03 PM | Locked

Ricky James Moore II:

The number is arbitrary, but about 1/3rd or so of the articles I see on LRC are conspiracy nonsense, doomsday cranks and nutrition nutters.

Okay, but I was wondering who you consider cranks/nutties/whatever. Btw, which articles have been about doomsday?

To paraphrase Marc Faber: We're all doomed, but that doesn't mean that we can't make money in the process.
Rabbi Lapin: "Let's make bricks!"
Stephan Kinsella: "Say you and I both want to make a German chocolate cake."

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Prateek Sanjay replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 1:50 AM | Locked

Today on LRC:

A Libertarian Allegory
Jeff Tucker on Rebecca Black’s "Friday."

 

WTF? Okay, we know that Jeffrey Tucker likes to be silly, so it is probably deliberate. And then:

Deluxe Fallout Shelter Condos
Sales are up 1,000%.

Snake oil salesmen? That's a 1/6 ratio of absurd articles today.Also, it turns out that Thomas DiLorenzo is a Birther: "the third-world socialist who occupies the White House". My gosh, has DiLorenzo no shame in making assertions without proof or using unnecessary hyperbole? And currently in the monthly top 10 is http://www.lewrockwell.com/miller/miller37.1.html. To quote Thomas Fleming, a "libertarian conman" is a redundant term.

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AJ replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 2:23 AM | Locked

LewRockwell.com has moved over into the liabilities column in my view.

Reservations for a doomsday bunker in the U.S. have rocketed since Japan's catastrophic earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown.

The 137,000sq ft bunker – designed to house 950 people for a year and withstand a 50 megaton blast – is currently being built under the grasslands of Nebraska.

The implications at the beginning of this article, for example, are completely preposterous.

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Prateek Sanjay replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 2:41 AM | Locked

I now wish two things.

1) LRC become well known in the mainstream rather than be an underground site.

2) LRC thus become the butt of so many jokes for its more absurd articles that they start cleaning up their site.

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webinxs22 replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 2:42 AM | Locked

I think nobody can predict the future.

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DanielMuff replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 3:05 AM | Locked

Kinda ironic that this thread has brought about a spambot post.

To paraphrase Marc Faber: We're all doomed, but that doesn't mean that we can't make money in the process.
Rabbi Lapin: "Let's make bricks!"
Stephan Kinsella: "Say you and I both want to make a German chocolate cake."

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Ricky James Moore II replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 3:09 AM | Locked

Celente, Rockwell has many such moments, Gary North varies between excellent and off his rocker. Other than that I don't really keep track of the names.

I will break in the doors of hell and smash the bolts; there will be confusion of people, those above with those from the lower depths. I shall bring up the dead to eat food like the living; and the hosts of dead will outnumber the living.
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Prateek Sanjay replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 4:25 AM | Locked

What do you guys think of David Kramer?

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Jack Roberts replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 4:41 AM | Locked

Ben Shalom Bernanke and similar is a fraud, Gelente is some what a doomer and speaks some truths on mainstream tv, not what i would consider a fraud.

Gelente is a bit of a sensationalist and tries to speak the demise of the dollar in to action. I don't agree with everything he says and do not particularly enjoy listening to him.

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Prateek Sanjay replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 4:48 AM | Locked

Is that really his middle name?

*checks*

Wait, it is. How can Ron Paul say Federal Reserve wants war when its top honcho's middle name is Peace?!

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Telpeurion replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 5:16 AM | Locked

You can know what I think about David Kramer by my signature, Prateek.

This is apparently a Man Talk Forum:  No Women Allowed!

Telpeurion's Disliked Person of the Week: David Kramer

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Ricky James Moore II replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 5:46 AM | Locked

Prateek Sanjay:

What do you guys think of David Kramer?

David Kramer is nuts. Isn't he the one who imagined all sorts of villainous motives and avoidance tactics because Pete Boettke didn't explicitly endorse gold at a cocktail party?

I will break in the doors of hell and smash the bolts; there will be confusion of people, those above with those from the lower depths. I shall bring up the dead to eat food like the living; and the hosts of dead will outnumber the living.
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Prateek Sanjay replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 7:16 AM | Locked

Yeah. David Kramer wrote:

"By the way, since the Second Amendment recognizes the right of citizens to bear arms in order to form a militia to defend themselves against a tyrannical Federal Government (and you thought the Second Amendment was about personal defense–shame on you), I actually think it is a good sign that the Feds are starting to fear the sprouting up of their enemies: the Militias."

WTF, man? This guy actually thinks militia will sprout up in US? And will have a chance against the largest military machinery in the world? And he thinks the authorities...fear such a thing? In which world does he live?

And now this:

"Unfortunately, I live in New “World Order” York where the Nazis here have forced Amazon to charge sales tax. "

What is this, I don't even...

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Daniel James Sanchez replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 8:25 AM | Locked

Prateek Sanjay:

What do you guys think of David Kramer?

A true critic of the criminal state (but I repeat myself*, especially regarding the American GUNverment), but I "wonder" and am shocked (shocked!) how a writer can cram (or should I say "Kram"?) so many parentheticals, side notes, modifiers, plays on words, and bits of sarcasm into a single one-sentence post.

*Murray accurately called the state a "gang of thieves writ large"

</parody>

(LRC does heroic work in converting countless social democrats and neocons to classic liberalism.  But Kramer's writing style drives me up the wall. :) )

"the obligation to justice is founded entirely on the interests of society, which require mutual abstinence from property" -David Hume
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DanielMuff replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 12:45 PM | Locked

Jack Roberts:

[...] Gelente is some what a doomer [...]

I have to skip reading and watching anything by Celente because he is such a downer. There's nothing I can get out of Celente that I can't get out of Marc Faber et al. and without an pessimistic attitutde. Dr. Doom (Faber) can give you the most depressing analysis but he always finishes off with "but that doesn't mean that we can't make money from now till then."

 

To paraphrase Marc Faber: We're all doomed, but that doesn't mean that we can't make money in the process.
Rabbi Lapin: "Let's make bricks!"
Stephan Kinsella: "Say you and I both want to make a German chocolate cake."

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DanielMuff replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 12:49 PM | Locked

Daniel James Sanchez:

Prateek Sanjay:

What do you guys think of David Kramer?

[...] how a writer can cram (or should I say "Kram"?)[...]

Lol. Winning!

To paraphrase Marc Faber: We're all doomed, but that doesn't mean that we can't make money in the process.
Rabbi Lapin: "Let's make bricks!"
Stephan Kinsella: "Say you and I both want to make a German chocolate cake."

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liberty student replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 12:52 PM | Locked

Prateek Sanjay:
What do you guys think of David Kramer?

Do you really want to go down this road?

"When you're young you worry about people stealing your ideas, when you're old you worry that they won't." - David Friedman
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liberty student replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 12:54 PM | Locked

Ricky James Moore II:
David Kramer is nuts. Isn't he the one who imagined all sorts of villainous motives and avoidance tactics because Pete Boettke didn't explicitly endorse gold at a cocktail party?

Not here.  If you're going to make a claim, substantiate it, or keep your opinion to yourself when it comes to staff or friends of the Institute.

"When you're young you worry about people stealing your ideas, when you're old you worry that they won't." - David Friedman
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liberty student replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 1:08 PM | Locked

Prateek Sanjay:
WTF, man? This guy actually thinks militia will sprout up in US? And will have a chance against the largest military machinery in the world?

Apparently you are unaware of the American revolution or the military history of Afghanistan.

Prateek Sanjay:
In which world does he live?

I asked the same thing when you nominated student to speak on libertarianism.

David has always answered my emails promptly and politely and conducts his relations with people around LvMI and LRC with a lot of class and style.  Certainly much more than is usually on display in this forum, where his critics have rarely if ever written anything that could be passed off as a low grade lunch menu, let alone a manifesto of liberty.

 

"When you're young you worry about people stealing your ideas, when you're old you worry that they won't." - David Friedman
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Prateek Sanjay replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 1:14 PM | Locked

Yes, haters gonna hate. I accept that, because I am a random person on the internet writing random things that will be read by a total of no more than 100 people (at most) and then forgotten by the next week.

In the end, does it all matter?

Does anything matter on the internet?

Do over-the-top things written by David Kramer matter?

Do forum posts that roll eyes at the aforementioned over-the-top things matter?

Does your criticism of my criticism of someone else's criticism of somebody else's criticism matter?

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Ricky James Moore II replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 1:49 PM | Locked

No, but LS takes himself uber seriously. He's got that Evangelist's zeal.

I will break in the doors of hell and smash the bolts; there will be confusion of people, those above with those from the lower depths. I shall bring up the dead to eat food like the living; and the hosts of dead will outnumber the living.
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John James replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 1:59 PM | Locked

Prateek Sanjay:
Does anything matter on the internet?

Is that a rhetorical question?

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Prateek Sanjay replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 2:17 PM | Locked

Nobody at Mises.Org takes himself that seriously. LS also has done the usual libertarian self-criticism/parody now and then.

Remember, when Barry Deutsch's 24 Types of Libertarian was posted here, he was among the few who were saying, "It's funny because it's true."

Like 90% of both what libertarians say about libertarians and non-libertarians say about libertarians are both 100% true. And the delightful Mr. Kramer would fit five or six categories from that 24 Types list.

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Natalie Samatar replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 2:56 PM | Locked

Ricky James Moore II:

David Kramer is nuts. Isn't he the one who imagined all sorts of villainous motives and avoidance tactics because Pete Boettke didn't explicitly endorse gold at a cocktail party?

He also had trouble uploading a paper critical of the Federal Reserve to Scribd, and attributed that to a conspiracy by some higher powers who were purposefully messing with the upload.  Not even joking.  He made a rant about it on the LRC blog but it was deleted (not sure by whom) later that day after he figured out how to upload it.  Wish I had saved a screenshot.

"Whoever will be free must make himself free. Freedom is no fairy gift to fall into a man's lap. What is freedom? To have the will to be responsible for one's self." ~ Max Stirner
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DanielMuff replied on Fri, Apr 8 2011 3:00 PM | Locked

Who's that chick in your avatar?

To paraphrase Marc Faber: We're all doomed, but that doesn't mean that we can't make money in the process.
Rabbi Lapin: "Let's make bricks!"
Stephan Kinsella: "Say you and I both want to make a German chocolate cake."

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