Sometimes I wonder what life will be like in the distant future. Namely, I wonder if our political institutions will be more free, or less so.
I've sort of invented two scenarios of future events. Some people might say that it is nothing but science fiction. I would say that science fiction has an uncanny tendency of becoming reality.
So here are two ridiculous sci-fi narratives. Tell me which one is more likely to occur.
Possibility 1
2015: Increased environmental regulations and new wage controls, price controls, and caps on profits pushes pushes more industry overseas 2020: Billionaire capitalists in Japan, China, and India abandon dollar and fiat currencies and replace their savings with gold. Central banks around the world around the world cannot prevent the value of their currencies from plummeting 2030: Faced with strikes, boycotts, mutinies in the armed forces, and condemnation from world governments, the U.S. agrees to reduce its military budget and withdraw its troops from foreign territories. Similar uprisings occur around the world, and foreign nations agree to reduce their militaries 2036: U.S. and foreign military leaders are tried for genicide and crimes against humanity, due to the spike in mutations and abnormalities caused by the use of depleting-uranium munitions 2050: General Assembly Resolution 695 bans the use of violence as a means of settling disputes between governments. Requires that such disputes be settled by arbitration. Territorial disputes must be resolved by internationally-monitored elections in the disputed territory. Forbids trading arms, computer systems, scrap metals, or other materials of military value with states involved in armed conflict. Illicit traders anywhere in the world will be arrested, their assets confiscated, and their corporate charters revoked. 2073: Chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons banned. All scientific faciliaties opened to international inspection 2080: Taxes drop to almost zero as armed conflict becomes a distant memory 2100: Economic growth unprecedented in the history of the world, due to the abolition of war and fiat currencies 2150: World peace and freedom
2015: Increased environmental regulations and new wage controls, price controls, and caps on profits pushes pushes more industry overseas
2020: Billionaire capitalists in Japan, China, and India abandon dollar and fiat currencies and replace their savings with gold. Central banks around the world around the world cannot prevent the value of their currencies from plummeting
2030: Faced with strikes, boycotts, mutinies in the armed forces, and condemnation from world governments, the U.S. agrees to reduce its military budget and withdraw its troops from foreign territories. Similar uprisings occur around the world, and foreign nations agree to reduce their militaries
2036: U.S. and foreign military leaders are tried for genicide and crimes against humanity, due to the spike in mutations and abnormalities caused by the use of depleting-uranium munitions
2050: General Assembly Resolution 695 bans the use of violence as a means of settling disputes between governments. Requires that such disputes be settled by arbitration. Territorial disputes must be resolved by internationally-monitored elections in the disputed territory. Forbids trading arms, computer systems, scrap metals, or other materials of military value with states involved in armed conflict. Illicit traders anywhere in the world will be arrested, their assets confiscated, and their corporate charters revoked.
2073: Chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons banned. All scientific faciliaties opened to international inspection
2080: Taxes drop to almost zero as armed conflict becomes a distant memory
2100: Economic growth unprecedented in the history of the world, due to the abolition of war and fiat currencies
2150: World peace and freedom
Possibility 2
2012: After the reelection of Barack Obama, the Perpetual War Powers Act gives the commander-in-chief the right to legally kill anybody suspected of plotting acts of terrorism 2016: Invisible laser weapons allow the user to undetectably kill the target. These weapons are mass-produced and given to every police officer in the country 2020: After neutralizing the opposition, President-for-life B.S. Bernanke firmly and decisively ends the problem of unemployment. All unemployed persons over the age of 18 are required to report to the Department of Labor for mandatory job placement in a federally-owned industry. Caring and professional career psychologists place people in careers suited for their abilities and interests. It is now possible for everybody to live the American dream, thanks to the abolition of the evil profit motive 2023: The Federal Communications Commission bans the use of proxies or encryption on packet-switching networks. Nobody is allowed to purchase or use a computer or cellular phone without valid identification. All computers must run an FCC-certified operating system. The FCC consistently refuses to allow the software to by audited for secutity holes 2040: All newborn infants are injected with a wireless-enabled tracking device. The children could be easily located if kidnapped by a pedophile or terrorist. The device also monitors their vital organs and alerts medical personnel of a medical emergency, and also dispatches the fire department if the child's blood has a certain level of CO2, indicating exposure to a fire 2055: Secretary of Homeland Security Sasha Obama orders the confiscation of all firearms 2060: The CEO of Diebold corporation is elected President-for-life with a staggering 100% of the popular vote 2079: In what appears to be the result of a run-time error on the White House computer, 100,000 Americans instantly lost their citizenship and were summarily executed 2100: Nuclear war breaks out in the middle east because the Muslims believe that the 12th Mahdi has returned. Every American male is conscripted, and cannot evade the draft because of the tracking devices 2150: Fascism
2012: After the reelection of Barack Obama, the Perpetual War Powers Act gives the commander-in-chief the right to legally kill anybody suspected of plotting acts of terrorism
2016: Invisible laser weapons allow the user to undetectably kill the target. These weapons are mass-produced and given to every police officer in the country
2020: After neutralizing the opposition, President-for-life B.S. Bernanke firmly and decisively ends the problem of unemployment. All unemployed persons over the age of 18 are required to report to the Department of Labor for mandatory job placement in a federally-owned industry. Caring and professional career psychologists place people in careers suited for their abilities and interests. It is now possible for everybody to live the American dream, thanks to the abolition of the evil profit motive
2023: The Federal Communications Commission bans the use of proxies or encryption on packet-switching networks. Nobody is allowed to purchase or use a computer or cellular phone without valid identification. All computers must run an FCC-certified operating system. The FCC consistently refuses to allow the software to by audited for secutity holes
2040: All newborn infants are injected with a wireless-enabled tracking device. The children could be easily located if kidnapped by a pedophile or terrorist. The device also monitors their vital organs and alerts medical personnel of a medical emergency, and also dispatches the fire department if the child's blood has a certain level of CO2, indicating exposure to a fire
2055: Secretary of Homeland Security Sasha Obama orders the confiscation of all firearms
2060: The CEO of Diebold corporation is elected President-for-life with a staggering 100% of the popular vote
2079: In what appears to be the result of a run-time error on the White House computer, 100,000 Americans instantly lost their citizenship and were summarily executed
2100: Nuclear war breaks out in the middle east because the Muslims believe that the 12th Mahdi has returned. Every American male is conscripted, and cannot evade the draft because of the tracking devices
2150: Fascism
So which is more likely to occur? Possibility 1 or 2?
"As long as there are sovereign nations possessing great power, war is inevitable."
I have to say that was the most well thought-out thing I've read all summer. Although hypothetical, both situations do seem incredibly feasible. I think we're heading towards 2 until the 2012 election when Ron Paul gets elected. But, after that, I say we're on Track #1.
I tend to see no.1 happening, but not because people will just start to see the right way (pacifism doesn’t survive a loss of income due to competition form foreign countries with better laws), but because nuclear proliferation cannot be stopped. And the day shall come when nukes are so cheap and widespread hat war shall be impossible. Than perhaps a slow tendency to cantonize and secede shall begin.
You're doing it wrong: No respectable futurist does a piece without fearmongering over intergalactic "sterilizers."
Anyway, Scenario 2 is far more believable. A One-World-Government (Scenario 1) could never succeed in bringing about peace.
I'd say a mixture, with 2 initially leading to successive crises (much like those which plagued the Roman Empire) causing the collapse of the US (and by then, USSE) and gradually culminating in 1.
Freedom of markets is positively correlated with the degree of evolution in any society...
nuclear proliferation cannot be stopped. And the day shall come when nukes are so cheap and widespread hat war shall be impossible.
Not until after a massive nuclear war. No weapon has yet been invented without being used in war.
tfr000: Not until after a massive nuclear war. No weapon has yet been invented without being used in war.
No weapon that could kill the king the first minute that war begun has ever existed prior to 1945. This is what gives me hope.
Why not?
Maintaining the standard of living currently enjoyed in the 21st Century requires a large amount of international trade. If all the nations of the world agreed to stop trading with one country, that country would be forced to disarm. The threat of being targetted in such fashion would be an economic incentive to prevent aggressions and protect human rights.
Right?
I'll have to go with choice "3"
http://fallout.wikia.com/wiki/Timeline
Why not? Maintaining the standard of living currently enjoyed in the 21st Century requires a large amount of international trade. If all the nations of the world agreed to stop trading with one country, that country would be forced to disarm. The threat of being targetted in such fashion would be an economic incentive to prevent aggressions and protect human rights. Right?
Look at the history of embargos. They do nothing but lower the standard of living in every country involved and give power-hungry "leaders" a point of leverage against their citizens. Government is never helpful: It only has the power to destroy.
Furthermore Scenario 1 seems to be "A One-World-Government emerges and forces everyone to play nice together." This view is hopelessly naiive. How well has centralization and monopoly worked with anything?
I have to say a little of both. Surely the revolution of the internet has increase the amount of exploitation of the wrong-doings of the executive and legislative branch. The people will start to elect leaders that are capable of giving real freedom back. Ron Paul has instigated that and there has been so much support for libertarian ideologies. As long as we have the ability to educate the future generations, the Constitution can be restored until the people change their philosophy of what government should be doing for them!
Probably a post human world, biology is on the verge of revolutionizing existence. 150 years from now I wouldn't be suprised if were not organic.
Well it depends on your definition of organic. The first "transhumans" will probably be made out of graphene-based circuits, assuming we don't find some way to make superior ones out of exotic matter first.
Anyone read "Accelerando"? It's an interesting take on the changes to come.
Don't be ridiculous. No scientific advancement in genetic engineering, cloning, or robotics will ever stop people from procreating the fun way.
That's like expressing the luddite fear that machines are going to make human workers obsolete. Science will never make humans obsolete.
It is doubtful the first iterations of transhumans will give up sex, but later ones probably will. Once you can physically modify your brain to have complete control over your feelings and thoughts, having an orgasm is as simple as pressing a button. Surely there will be those who will do it for nostalgia but it will no longer serve any practical purpose. Our descendants will probably find something more fun than sex to occupy their time with anyway.
As for procreation itself, "growing" babies within artificial wombs outside the mother (after all the kinks are worked out of course) will be much less stressful for the parents, and much safer for both the mother and the baby. And once it can be done cheaply there won't be much point in having a baby the natural way anymore, with the exception of the nostalgic reasons why some women have births at home today.
It depends on what you mean by obsolete. Is a javelin obsolete compared to a gun?
Azure:with the exception of the nostalgic reasons why some women have births at home today.
In the bathtub? Wouldn’t that drown the baby?
Not FULL of water.... like a couple inches
Of course not. The baby spent ~9 month swimming, having the lungs filled with liquid since their development. The baby still gets oxygen through umbilical cord until it is severed.
actually the bathtub can be full of water. infants know how to swim, they will have no problems getting to the surface and chilling about there.
And the uranium shells causing health damage? Please, that is totally unrealisitc. You could sleep with them in your underpants for what its worth, lol, and still ahve perfectly healthy children.
<i>And once it can be done cheaply there won't be much point in having a baby the natural way anymore, with the exception of the nostalgic reasons why some women have births at home today.</i>
You know, those "nostalgic reasons" are more powerful than capitalism. Take religion, for example.
Buddha, born 563 B.C.
Confucius, born 551 B.C.
Jesus, born 0 A.D.
Muhammad, born 570 A.D.
Despite the fact that these men were born thousands of years ago, they each have followings of literaly billions of people. Ideas and traditions really don't change very much over time.
abirkmanis: Of course not. The baby spent ~9 month swimming, having the lungs filled with liquid since their development. The baby still gets oxygen through umbilical cord until it is severed.
Now that’s screwed up.
As a prophet you will never make a living in both a free society or facism.
Corporatism is using state means to enhance market share and profitability of a few favored firms, at the expense of the citizen.
You know, those "nostalgic reasons" are more powerful than capitalism. Take religion, for example. Buddha, born 563 B.C. Confucius, born 551 B.C. Jesus, born 0 A.D. Muhammad, born 570 A.D. Despite the fact that these men were born thousands of years ago, they each have followings of literaly billions of people. Ideas and traditions really don't change very much over time.
The nostalgic reasons ARE capitalism. We are using "capitalism" to mean "everyone is free to do whatever they want within the bounds of their own property" right?
I thought women had babies at home because if you have the baby in the bathtub its like 70% less painful? And better for the baby b.c. warm water cushions them and keeps them warm. This is what my girlfriend says.
I think I've heard of that somewhere before, but every woman I know who's had a home birth didn't do it in the tub, so it's obviously not the only reason.