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Where Can I Get Accurate Inflation Numbers?

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limitgov Posted: Fri, Dec 9 2011 10:46 AM

Bot for food prices and energy prices as well?

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Clayton replied on Fri, Dec 9 2011 12:49 PM



Austrian TMS

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Well that's tough to say, because it depends on how you're defining inflation.  It sounds like you're just concerned with CPI including food and energy.  This is referred to as "headline" inflation (as opposed to "core" inflation, which is what I'm guessing you're trying to avoid.)

But again, those are still just a basket of prices.  If you're going by the pre-2003 definition of inflation (an increase in the money supply), then you need to look no further than the money aggregates.  Of course, the Austrians have their own definition of "money supply" as well. (For more info, check out the links here.)

Mark Skousen talks about this here:

What's the Best Measure of Inflation?


And there are of course plenty of other sources on this:

Inflation: One Man's Survey

What's Wrong with the CPI?

Don't Believe Those Inflation Numbers

Defining Inflation

Smoke, Mirrors, and Inflation Expectations


Those last two are by Frank Shostak, who has written quite a bit on the subject.  You might check his archive.  And here's a great interview with Jeff Tucker and Shostak in which the economist talks about how Austrian theory combined with an analysis of money supply make for an excellent forecasting model.


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Jargon replied on Fri, Dec 9 2011 4:19 PM

Im not sure that shadowstats is entirely accurate. there are some pretty damning articles which reveal the absurd implications of his figures for consumer goods, which just dont match up very well historically. then again there is the housing bubble and the student loan bubble so those are definite off setting factors which might raise the final figure quite a bit. anyways its good for explaining whats wrong withe cpi as it is today. even the headline measure is rigged to move as little as possible. m.i.t. used to put out an independent figure but that may have gotten the kaiabash for reasons i forget. whatever the true rate is , its at least two and a half points above the bls cpu. thats just my opinion anyways. forgive the syntax, im on my phone.

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It's impossible to be completely accurate since the Fed does not disclose how much money it prints.

To paraphrase Marc Faber: We're all doomed, but that doesn't mean that we can't make money in the process.
Rabbi Lapin: "Let's make bricks!"
Stephan Kinsella: "Say you and I both want to make a German chocolate cake."

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