That Mitt Romney did well in the Iowa caucuses is unsurprising, but what is surprising is Rick Santorum’s surge. One YouTube user asked, ‘how the f--k did santorum jump so much in 3 days...somethings fishy here....’ Lew Rockwell posted what Brad Funkhouser said: "I've been following Iowa GOP vote counts for a long time ... They are being slow-walked...in 2012. Negotiations are going on... Cash is changing hands. Apparently GOP chieftains are 'persuading,' by one means or the other, Perry and Bachmann people who hold considerable hold sway over large blocs of votes to switch to Romney and Santorum - leaving Ron in the dust... Also abusing suddenly lax ID registration may have created many fake votes for neocons Santorum and Romney. Santorum has no organization, never drew over 100 people during his entire campaign. Of course he did bribe and received the benediction of of that 'family' leader who demanded 1 million dollars that were to be distributed in part to cronies. This is the biggest fraud since Kennedy stole the West Virginia Primary. Perry had built a pretty organization and was around 13% of the vote. He drew far larger crowds than Santorum and ends up with just 10%. Did those votes go. Santorum? Santorum didn't earn 24% of the vote."
However, there may be a less conspiratorial reason for Santorum’s 29,944 votes, so I will not jump to a conclusion yet. I dislike blaming nameless ‘GOP chieftains’. What is the evidence to support this claim? None, but unsupported opinion.
The controversy over Ron Paul and the newsletters may have harmed Paul’s popularity to the point of denying him victory in the Iowa caucuses, but I cannot read the minds of Iowans.
However, as Wheylous noted below, Paul may have secretly won the caucus: "I think Ron Paul just won Iowa," declared Mark Hansen, Ron Paul's Pottawattamie County coordinator. Here at a bar serving as the unofficial county headquarters of the Paul campaign, Hansen had just conceded that Paul would not win the popular vote in Iowa, but he also pointed out that after the straw polls, the precincts appointed delegates to the county conventions in March -- and that in every precinct in Pottawattamie, at least, two or three Ron Paul supporters volunteered to be delegates, and few other candidates' supporters volunteered. Delegates at the county conventions help select delegates to the state convention, which then select delegates to the Republican National Convention. Technically, tonight's vote was a straw poll, determining no delegates, but setting the tone. The only actions that actually could make a difference in electing delegates to the National Convention heavily favored Paul. Nobody will be watching in June, unless this election gets much more exciting, but Ron Paul might send more Iowa delegates to Orlando than any other candidate.
If any libertarian feels discouraged by Ron Paul placing third in the Iowa caucus poll, view his post-Iowa caucus speech. The end of the speech, where he invites Corporal Jessie Thorsen who was cut off while speaking on CNN, was a good wrap-up, but it could have been better if the soldier spent more time defending a non-interventionist foreign policy. Still, a current veteran standing by a former veteran is good political symbolism. It will help Paul change the range of politically acceptable opinion.
Earlier in the election, there was much focus on Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, but they both faded: Perry because of his bad debate moments and Gingrich because of his record, highlighted by Paul.
What will likely happen post-Iowa caucus is the lower-ranking Republicans (Huntsman, Bachmann, Perry, and Gingrich) will be pressured to drop out the race. That will give Paul more time to speak during the debates and allow the Paul campaign to direct attack ads at Romney and Santorum.
Former CIA intelligence officer Michael Scheuer endorsed Paul while Santorum is rejected by his nephew for Ron Paul. This is a good start.
Eventually, I believe Paul should give a national security speech that will go into detail about blowback, the motives for Islamic terrorism, indefinite detention, rendition, enhanced interrogation techniques, massive surveillance, national security letters, and other issues security related. He should note that he has received the most donations from military veterans, but the speech should primarily be about explaining why the decade-long war in various Islamic nations has been counterproductive. He should follow up on this speech with attack ads on Santorum and Gingrich with military veterans explaining how their foreign policy preferences are dangerous, expensive, and unconstitutional.
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/did-ron-paul-just-win-iowa/289986
Thanks for saving me from having to write that. Nice job.
Paul should give a national security speech
Seconded! The media really can't ignore him just 3% behind Mittorum.
He shouldn't give a super-long speech, maybe a 20 minute speech (with plenty of fanfare and build-up beforehand) that basically says "You can't defend yourself if you're broke and you can't even afford to feed and arm your troops, treat your wounded veterans, etc." Because the current policy of high inflation, bailouts and foreign adventurism is bankrupting us, those who support this current policy might sound tough on the surface but they're really endangering our national interests. The current policy is bringing our economy to its knees, leaving us weak and vulnerable to an emerging, aggressive super-power like China which, as the holder of most of our debt, is our creditor and can stop the flow of cash any time they please.
Clayton -
Ron Paul: We're All Austrians Now
I think we're seeing an attempt by the GOP insiders to funnel Tea Party voters toward Mitt Romney as the only "reasonable" option. Romney has been the GOP insiders guy whether they like him as a candidate or not - at least he's pliable to their interests. They, GOP insiders and their media counterparts, are attempting to position Ron Paul as the "extreme" candidate - an isolationist, anti-american, racist - the usual rhetorical garbage. Perry, Gingrich and Cain have pretty much run through the public opinion cycle and are most likely on their way out - although I think Gingrich will stay for as long as he can just to gum up the works or until he gets a deal from the GOP masters - it's just the kind of guy he is. I don't think Bachmann was ever taken seriously. Have no idea what has possessed Huntsman to remain in the race thus far.
Santorum would appear to be one of the GOPs VP options, although they probably still are targeting Rubio for that. I think a lot of deals have been made to keep GOP power among the party elites who have no real interest in fiscal responsibility, and want the foreign policy to remain the same.
It's not really a conspiracy. There are supporters with very deep pockets that want the status quo to continue despite the consequences. They range from conservatives to liberals. Their interests is in protecting their own interests and not what's best for the country. They also tend to play both sides to ensure competitors don't use the government against them. These are the corporatists who have pretty much run the country. They generally tend to want both parties to present candidates they can live with, and will throw their weight against anyone who'll rock the boat. I think the underestimated Obama's negative impact on the economy (for the general public, that is) and overall incompetence (known more for golf, vacations, and basketball brackets than governing or leadership), believing him to be just another politician they could deal with. Now that the bloom is off Obama's rose, they're looking toward the next man up. That man is Romney. I'm sure they're also trying to convince Hillary to run against Obama too.
I believe the reason the nomination process is so drawn out is to reduce the impact of candidates with divergent and popular positions so that the insider candidate becomes the most desirable in the minds of the public who for the most part are tired of the ordeal. It's a kind of voter water-boarding we have in this country.
Ron Paul, on the other hand, has a consistent message that starkly contrasts with the party line and is relevant to the current conditions on the minds of the public, and for that reason extraordinary actions are required. So we witness a lot of the same attacks that have been disproven, but with more verve and at certain moments intended to do the most harm. Ron Paul winning the Iowa caucus - at least publically - is something the GOP does not want as it undermines their interests. So even if they concede some delegates to Paul, as long as the general public believes Ron Paul can't win even in Iowa the GOP insiders get what they want. It's up to Paul's campaign to really push hard for more wins in other states.
I expect significant pressure to reduce the field down to three candidates - probably between now and after New Hampshire.
K.C. Farmer:Romney has been the GOP insiders guy whether they like him as a candidate or not - at least he's pliable to their interests.
I would love to see someone for whom that's not the case...
Have no idea what has possessed Huntsman to remain in the race thus far.
He's been banking on NH. He stopped campaigning in IA a while ago.
Question...did you really author that piece?
Stream of consciousness - sorry for the wordiness.
NH appears to be going for Romney. Not sure what kind of percentages Huntsman is looking for to stay in the race, but I figure if he doesn't win or come in second with a strong showing then he's probably out. Just don't see the money going his way if he doesn't show well in a more favorable state for him.
I have seen a report that Newt Gingrich is attempting to get together with Santorum to thwart Romney. I'm sure Romney's people may be in talks with Santorum to draw him to their side, which is why I suggested he might be considered as a VP candidate under Romney.
Gingrich is like one of those openning scenes on "CHiPs", one car slamming into another for one grandiose pile-up. Not sure how many on here remember that show. Let's just hope he knocks Romney around enough for Ron Paul to slip in there. Problem I see is that whoever Gingrich goes after seems to do better.
While I agree that it would be great for Ron Paul to give a foreign policy speech, I fear the American public is just too deeply entrenched into the Pax Americana mindset - especially in the GOP. Anyone even questioning that mindset is declared a heretic. That's pretty tough for Ron Paul the candidate to overcome, and is a major reason libertarian-republicans have had a difficult time on the national stage. Maybe the economy isn't bad enough for some people to start re-examining their positions.
K.C. Farmer:NH appears to be going for Romney. Not sure what kind of percentages Huntsman is looking for to stay in the race, but I figure if he doesn't win or come in second with a strong showing then he's probably out. Just don't see the money going his way if he doesn't show well in a more favorable state for him.
Oh yeah, I'm not saying Huntsman isn't going going away, I'm was just responding to why he's not gone yet. Like I said he gave up on IA a long time ago and has been banking on NH for a while. Doesn't mean it'll do him any good.
Yeah I really don't know what the hell Santorum's end game is. I have no idea what he thinks he'll gain out of this. He's not Ron Paul 2008. The guy's given up a year and half of his life to practically live in fricking Iowa for a year and a half...and as if that weren't bad enough, live there to campaign that whole time. Like, what the hell? I honestly don't understand what would possess someone to put himself through that when he has no real message to spread or any chance of accomplishing virtually anything in the long run. I really want some insider to tell me what the hell makes someone do that. What is Santorum getting out of this? Does he think this is his ticket back to the Congress or something? That's the only thing I can figure.
Gingrich is like one of those openning scenes on "CHiPs", one car slamming into another for one grandiose pile-up.
Damn that takes me back
Problem I see is that whoever Gingrich goes after seems to do better.
I don't know about that, but I just don't see how much of a threat Gingrich can be any more. He's got virtually no campaign, no support, and believe it or not, he's actually one of the worst in terms of financing. The only one whos doing worse than him is Huntsman. Look at those numbers. The guy spent $2.2 million of his own money. Where the hell he got that money (and better yet, where the hell it went) I would love to know.
But Gringrich lives in Virginia and couldn't get enough signatures to get on the ballot. Guy's not going anywhere. He's been existing on a name the whole time.
It's not really a conspiracy. There are supporters with very deep pockets that want the status quo to continue despite the consequences.
This is true as far as it goes, but I think these insiders will go as far as they need to go (including rigging, vote fraud, etc.) to keep the status quo... these aren't just your garden variety political activists that "have their mind made up", they're real movers and shakers.
That said, I'm suspecting more and more that Ron Paul has some unseen assistance from "On High". This is pure 100% hunch but I suspect that some defecting component of the Establishment may in fact be giving invaluable "guidance" to Ron Paul. My hunch is based on one observation: the Media is palpably terrified of Ron Paul. They hated, ignored and caricatured him in 2008 but this time, they also have visible fear on their faces. They run the whole damn show, so why are they so terrified unless they know something we don't? That's why I wonder if RP doesn't have some kind of deep insider guidance that is helping him avoid the booby-traps and bypass the election-control infrastructure to deal directly with the people.
It is possible for the King to be more enlightened than his Nobles, if you know what I mean.
People should pay to live in your world for a day, Clayton.
I read 77722 somewhere.
Anyway, these are all just guesses. The results may in fact be quite different, especially given that RP's campaign instructed its voters to stay after so that they could be selected as delegates.
Wheylous:Anyway, these are all just guesses. The results may in fact be quite different, especially given that RP's campaign instructed its voters to stay after so that they could be selected as delegates.
Yeah I know..
PT linked to that too. And there was this as well. But don't those estimates at the Green Papers come from the delegate selection? Are are you suggesting that's just an out of the blue estimate based on the vote tally?
Are are you suggesting that's just an out of the blue estimate based on the vote tally
That's what I've heard. The real delegates are sitting at home being contacted by RP. They will vote much later on.
....And so the penny drops
Let's watch the media all say "well he still basically won, this doesn't change anything, blah blah blah"...when the whole time it's been "he's gone 2 for 2 already...can anyone stop him? He's making history winning all these things. He just keeps knocking em all down".