I just started reading up on the Austrian economic theory and from what I understand there has to be a recession after every boom with our distorted market. When do you think the recession will take place?
Haha, have you seen the news lately? It looks like the liquidation process has already been underway for some time. Even the mainstreamers are finally recognizing it, although they believe it's a "harmful" and "unnecessary" process, one which should be avoided by any means necessary,e.g. the implementation of a wacky "stimulus" package.
Depends on how long it takes for the credit crunch to spread.
Banks hold over $600 trillion in OTC derivatives - more than world GDP !.
If that mountain falls over, a recession is pretty much guaranteed.
When? It's being going on for some time now, maybe even years. It's hard to tell because the various governments of the world, and especially the US government, are VERY good at fudging information. Since GDP growth is calculated with respect to CPI, and since I reckon CPI is mis-calculated (just like the US government doesn't use GAAP nor do they take into account entitlement obligations), then the US has probably been in a recession for some time now. If you mean when will the panic occur, well it already has, the Fed dropped rates to 3.5%, insanely low. All this does is prolongue the boom, increase debt, and make the inevitable recession far worse.
If the derivatives mountain ever falls, I think the words you are looking for are "global economic catastrophe," not "recession." The entire economic foundation of the world (the US dollar) would be completely undermined and worthless and the global economic structure would have to be redefined (unfortunately, probably resulting in a one-world currency and economy as the Elite are devising).
But I would have to agree with the other posters on this topic, the recession started in early 2007; the big boys just have to manipulate the fear and hope of the masses in such a way as to avoid a panic sale of stock... it's disgusting, but it's how the rich get richer and the poor continue to be usurped.
My guess also would be to expect more wars and lower level conflicts to erupt when it's about to hit big time. If the US can stop a fire sale of dollars abroad with guns, it will. Expect a lot more calls for "regime change" and what not, probably starting with Iran. Also expect more tension with China and Asia in general, with attempts to link Asian countries to terrorism if their monetary polices aren't 'harmonized' with US policy.
And don't forget about the Wolfowitz Doctrine that got watered down to hide the real American agenda. The US is fearful of the former Soviet Union's present capacity to US world power. If you haven't heard of it, click on the link and read the Wikipedia entry.