Is this a serious theory?
The One Hundred and Fifty-Two Year US Equity Great Second Fractal Cataclysmic Collapse: 5 March 2010: A Fractal Replica of 11 October 2007?
Though the Federal Reserve has grossly distorted the normal activity of supply and demand in the debt markets, buying over ten months 300 billion dollars of US treasuries ex nihilo, the equivalent entire annual quantity normally available for equity speculation and money based structural support, a review of two years of readily available weekly and monthly trading valuation patterns for the US CRB and composite indices of US , European, and Japanese equities, nevertheless, easily demonstrates currently occurring saturation areas along the tops of the money supply based asset valuation trading curves.
Will money entering and exiting at these markets’ saturation areas occur nonlinearly and predictably according the quantum principles of saturation macroeconomics?
For the saturation macroeconomist/scientist who follows the simple mathematical quantum fractal patterns, the next three weeks in March 2010 will be among the most interesting days and weeks of asset valuation/fractal time unit observation. A spectacular 152 year nonlinear event is expected to occur in the third week of the next three week trading period. March 2010 is the 93 month of a 46/92 :: x/2x monthly pattern starting in October 1998 which began a major extension of the 70/140 year first and second fractal series for United States equity equivalents with extensional successive debt-money bubbles in sequentially the PC-internet industry, the real estate-financial industry, and now the central bankng industry.
Expected is the cataclysmic (beyond October 1987) nonlinear asset (equity and commodity ) devolution trading event that will define and validate the science of Saturation Macroeconomics.
The 93 month second fractal is made of a 14/35/28/19 of 21 month ideal x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series. March, April, and May represent the terminal three months of the 19,20, and 21st month ideal fourth fractal. . The 28/19 third and fourth fractals of the 14/35/28/19 of 21month series is configured in a 34/84/68 week fractal with the Wilshire apogee at 11873 on 11 February 2010 of the third fractal’s 2x or 68th week progression.
March 2010’s Wilshire has two base fractals of 22-23 weeks and 19 weeks starting in October 2008 and March 2009 respectively. The ideal weekly counts of the second fractals to these two base fractals are 22-23/54 of 57 weeks and 19/35 of 38 weeks respectively.
For aurophiles, an interpolated 11/28/22/14 of 17 week fractal (x/2.5x/2x/1.5x) matches the Wilshire’s weekly end point and the CRB’s similar weekly end point.
A reflexic ideal 20/50/40 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal allowed the science of saturation macroeconomics to exactly and prospectively predict October 2007 as the Wilshire’s nominal high occurring on day 40 of the third fractal.
5 March 2010 showed minutely gaps much like 11 October 2007. 5 March 2010 represented the 20th day of the third fractal of a 10/25/20 :: 2x/2.5x/2x reflexic fractal series (a 0.5 time length exact fractal proportionality of the 11 October 2007 series). Unlike 11 October 2007 which ended(as predicted) near the low of the day, 5 March ended near the high which suggests that a 10/25/25 day or x/2.5x/2.5x extension is possible.
The 46/93 month or 70/152 year daily fractal decay series could be 15-16//(10/25//20/15 ) days :: y//x/2.5x//2x/1.5x which elegantly contains both the 10/25/20-25 possible extension and the mathematical 10/25/20/15 day classic 4 phase series and all interpoated in a 15-16/34/34 days or y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal.
The possible terminal fractal daily pathway:
From 5 March 2010 a 3/7-8/6-7 day decay series for the Wilshire would encapsulate the next 14 trading day period. Two days down would complete the first three day first fractal. A surge for three days might complete a x/2.5x/2.5x :: 10/25/25 day final saturation high with lateral movement in a tight trading range with a low for the second fractal in 5 additional trading days. A final lower high for the third fractal in 3 to 5 days with a massive nonlinear event on the 13th and/or14th day of this 3/7-8/6-7 series.
The US transportation index, which led the US equities into the 2002-2007 valuation expansion, disproportionally benefited from the dynamics of a nonsustainable system whereby American paper (debt) was exchanged for transported and distributed tangible Asian goods. With China’s realization that the US Central Bank(the third money-debt expansion element of the post 1998 140 year second fractal extension)can create money-debt-paper at will backed by no real economic activity and that America’s consumers are debt saturated, the lower low gapped area in the transportation index that occurred between 26 and 29 September 2008 from 2160.08 and 2156.09 will not be filled.
More seriously, and just as a general comment, I think it's important to stress to people that they should write as clearly as possible. Generally speaking, the less jargon the better.
nirgrahamUK: fractals are intriguing mathematical objects. the above post by the fractal dude, is utter gibberish.
fractals are intriguing mathematical objects. the above post by the fractal dude, is utter gibberish.
nir, you are going to be so red faced in just three days from now when "The equity and commodity collapse on 26 April 2011 will be the greatest in historical."
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It's easy to refute an argument if you first misrepresent it. William Keizer
I may never post again
Where there is no property there is no justice; a proposition as certain as any demonstration in Euclid
Fools! not to see that what they madly desire would be a calamity to them as no hands but their own could bring
I agree that they are incredible mathematical objects, and can be represented visually in sacred geometry very well. But they are just abstractions. Has their ever been any hard science dealing with fractals? Not that I am aware of.
In States a fresh law is looked upon as a remedy for evil. Instead of themselves altering what is bad, people begin by demanding a law to alter it. ... In short, a law everywhere and for everything!
~Peter Kropotkin
The Lorenz Attractor is a fractal of Haussdorff dimension between 2 and 3 that is often used to describe the chaotic time evolution of dynamic systems. I must confess it's been a little while since I studied Chaos Theory...
"When the King is far the people are happy." Chinese proverb
For Alexander Zinoviev and the free market there is a shared delight:
"Where there are problems there is life."
Am I really this ignorant of economics? Admittedly I haven't been studying it for terribly long, but I have absolutely no idea what the hell anything in that article means.
Rcder: Am I really this ignorant of economics? Admittedly I haven't been studying it for terribly long, but I have absolutely no idea what the hell anything in that article means.
I cannot appraise your level of knowledge, but rest assured that article is light years below you.
How dare you mock the prophecies that have been ordained in the Economic Simulator!!! It is only 22 hours till the alien mothership returns to collect the faithful, and destroys the world in a ball of flaming fractals. And at that point it will be YOU, Mr Dave, who will be the red-faced one.
And if you doubted the theory before now, just look at this undeniable proof. ITS GOT A STAR IN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Are you convinced? If not you must be bonkers! Anyway, enough wasting my precious time with you feeble earthlings, I'm off to prepare the intergalactic space-gerbil for her maiden voyage.
"The equity and commodity collapse on 26 April 2011 will be the greatest in historical."
Today is the day. The NY stock exchange opens in half an hour.
Run while you still can.
Is it time for the world to end yet? It's difficult to tell as my clock is broken
More Saturation Macroeconomics: A Debt Dependent Self Organizing System
From 3 to 14 February 2012 ... Has there ever been as tight an asset valuation historical band over an eight day period for the Wilshire?
A saturated apical valuation in a nonlinear system?
This the valuation pattern identified in the 2005 Mainpage of the Economic Fractalist....
x/2.5x.2x/1.5-1.6x
This was the nodal low fractal pattern from March 2009 to October 2011;
5/13/10/7 months... The fractal proportionality... x/2.5x/2x/1.5x
Isn't the empirical pattern obvious?
Yes, this is a real patterned science.
dear fractalist,
What about that collapse thingy you predicted for april 26, 2011?
The first time I heard of fractals I was reading this book an the collapse written by some British guy. The conclusion of the auithor was the economy is some kind of machine that needed a proper "governor" and everything would be fine. He turned me on to Mendelbrot. Mendelbrot wrote a book Fractals and Scaling in Finance. He realized that he could model the volatility of a price chart with fractals. There is an empirical relation in prices and fractals. This makes sense because prices are the result of the natural phenomona of human action. Prices are organic in nature.
So what if you can see patterns in prices? If you have this great predictive power you should be able to become fabulously wealthy in short order. What you fail to see is that the patterns observed only represent the past and are contingent on ceterus paribus. Why use a month for your period? Does your same magic ratio hold true for different periods? It is possible to beat the market. It can be beaten by astrology. But eventually some change will cause the stars to not align with your expectations. Then, like LTCM, you lose it all infinitely faster than you made it.
Good Luck!
It is only serious if it is proven to represent the reality of the money-debt-asset system.
This is the unexpected nonlinearity the 2005 Main Page of the Economic Fractallist was referring to and the ideal pathway in the last paragraph....
Saturation Macroeconomics: Unquestionably a Patterned Science.
Friday 2 March 2012: The Wilshire's Perfect Lammert x/2.5x/2x ::12/30/24 Day Final Growth Conclusion
The operating terminal Wilshire 2009 fractal series is a 24/60/48/33 of 36-39 week fractal that concludes a 1982 9/23 year and a 1789 70/154 year synchronized first and second fractal series.
The nonlinearity of asset devolution will be breathtaking ...an albino black swan....
A y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal of 16(17)/40/40 days has a base fractal of 3/8/8 of 16(17) days which includes the 48 week 3rd fractal and is configured also in a y/2.5y/2.5y :: 3/8/8 daydecay pattern.
The last two days of the third 40 day decay fractal take an upward valuation.
The new base fractal of 12 days begins on 29 November 2011 and ends on 14 December 2011 and is formed by the last 2/3's of a 3/8/5 day fractal.
The fractal math is interesting because a 16/40/32/23 day 4 phase fractal x/2.5x/2x/1.5x matches and shares interpolation with a 16/40/40 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y decay fractal with the 16/40/32/23 day 4 phase Lammert series' final secondary low on 19 December 2011, 3 trading days after the 12 day base fractal.
The final fractal growth series is a 12/31/24 day fractal ending on 2 March.
2 of the 31 days of the second fractal are 1/2 trading days resulting in a perfect 12/30/24 day :: x/2.5x/2x growthfractal.
Will the low including the 1982 9/23 year x/2.5x historical second fractal nonlinearity be in 18-20 trading days for a final four phase perfect Lammert fractal series of: 12/30/24/18-20 days :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x?
Time will tell.
You didn't answer Tans' question. What happened to your prediction about April 26?