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Prediction Market at

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kiba posted on Thu, Jul 22 2010 11:02 PM

I suggests we have a prediction market at to test the raw  speculating ability of the community just for fun. :) - The world's only encyclopedia on free(as in freedom) gaming.

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I predict the stock market to rise slightly in nominal terms (at worst stay flat), but fall sharply in real terms.


Commodities: Rise sharply in nominal terms. Slightly down in real terms.


Bonds - oy vey.


Real Estate: Down nominally. Down, down in real terms.


Cash is trash. (Longterm) Sure you might get a selloff (in the above) when the dollar crisis hits here or the stimulus runs out and the economy fades, but you will need to be nimble with putting the cash to work quickly, because Bernanke might just be quicker if you hesitate.


Basically, I expect there to be no investment class that will rise in real terms anymore. Everything will fall. Some will fall sharply. Thanks Bernanke! But nominally speaking, all will be well. Most of the people will think they are doing ok even though their standard of living is plummeting because they don't understand or focus on real terms.

That being said. I am still fully invested in various assets (except for cash and bonds) because my biggest fear longterm is Bernanke and the printing press. I might lose in the shortterm, but I won't get wiped out in the long term. (I hope)

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I predict that the USD will inevitably collapse, not only as a world reserve currency, but as a currency in general.

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1. Democrats will lose badly in November.

2. There will be price controls, but not wage controls.

3. Obama will become more and more hated. His defenders will say it's because he's black.

4. We won't have another black president for 20 years, minimum.

5. There will be several more bailouts.

6. Bernanke will be the scapegoat when the dollar collapses. That's why he's there.

7. The internet will lose its freedom a thousand different ways, and become just like television.

8. Airlines will go bankrupt as people start taking trains.

9. All the geeks living in Mama's basement will get married and keep on living there, right in Moma's basement.

My humble blog

It's easy to refute an argument if you first misrepresent it. William Keizer

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