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Fiscal Multipliers Debunked?

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ITGF posted on Thu, Jul 7 2011 9:31 AM

I recently encountered a series of youtube videos which claimed to find errors in the logic and algebra underpinning Keynesian economics.

Excuse me for being sceptical, but I think its strange that it has taken 75 yrs to find these flaws. Surely if they existed, it would be well known by now? Below is a link to one of these videos. Has the author found a previously unknown flaw? Or is this well-known? Or has the author, in fact, got it completely wrong?

Pt. 2: Fiscal Multiplier Destroyed: Keynes' Deception
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=encPMexUm8w

If you are interested, here is the full list of videos:

The Maynard Keynes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pA67E8jMq84&NR=1

Pt. 1: Fiscal Multiplier Debunked and Destroyed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Vnus-Kw5Is&NR=1

Pt. 3: Fiscal Multiplier Destroyed: The Other Multiplier
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZDIZ1U7gEk

Pt. 4: Fiscal Multiplier Destroyed: The Chain Reaction
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1AVThNZuR4

Pt. 5: Consumption Function & Keynesian Cross Destroyed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bmsYNnS2MA

Pt. 6: Government Spending Multiplier Destroyed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHa-HE7Olq0

Pt 7: Tax Cut Multiplier Destroyed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oUMjJKQkkQ

Pt 8: Balanced Budget Multiplier Swindle - Keynesian Asymmetries
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZL_1L9r-T4

Pt 9: Keynesian Logic - Apples, Oranges, Asses
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XErrpJHaExA

Pt 10: Keynesian Asymmetry and "Other Multiplier" Revisited
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=684WIoQP6XQ

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Wheylous replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 11:47 AM

I suggest you read this explanation of the fiscal multiplier:

http://www.wellesley.edu/Economics/weerapana/econ202/econ202pdf/lecture%20202-13.pdf#page=3

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Tugwit replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 11:49 AM

You are doing what Keynesians do. They are impervious to logic because they claim to have math. Then they show bits and pieces of algebra, and make up  stories. And then you see the equations, which don’t back up their stories, and contradict their stories. And some of their equations are complete nonsense, and include crap like C = mpc(Y-T).

1) If that's supposed to be the consumption function, where is autonomous consumption, "a"?

2) What is Y?

Leave the T in, and show me the equations of how you get Keynes' multiplier. The equations aren't that hard.

 

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Wheylous replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 11:59 AM

1) If that's supposed to be the consumption function, where is autonomous consumption, "a"?

Are you blind or just stubborn?:

 

C¯ is exogenous consumption
2) What is Y?
Output/GDP.
 
 
I don't know how much simpler it can get:
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Tugwit replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:00 PM

I have already read it. So what?

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Wheylous replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:03 PM

The equations are right there! I even underlined them for you. Plug in the consumption function into GDP and solve for GDP. Done.

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Tugwit replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:05 PM

1) He didn't include autonomous consumption in his consumption function.

2) He didn't label Y as to whether it was disposable or total.

3) You still can't add anything to any of the variables in the equation you circled, because of the order of operations.

4) b does not apply to tax, only to disposable income.

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Tugwit replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:08 PM

Yes the equations are there. So what?

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Wheylous replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:09 PM

1) Again, autonomous consumption is the same as exogeneous consumption, which is Cbar

2) Y is always Y total

3) You can add a value to any of the variables. Like C, for example. Or G.

4) He distributed b to (Y-T), because b only applies to disposable Y, which is Y-T

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Your problem is with arithmetic, not with Keynesianism.

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Tugwit replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:26 PM

1) So autonomous and exogenous are the same. So what?

2) Y is not always total income. Look around and you will find some Keynesians using it for disposable income, and doing this:

Y = bY + a+I+NX +G

Y - bY = a+I+NX +G

Y(1-b) = a+I+NX +G

where they factor out Y, even though one Y is Yt and the other is Yd.

3) If you look at the entire set of equations, you will find that you can't add to any of the variables, without violating the order of operations.

4) You cannot retroactively apply b to T, it only applies to Yd.

 

And regarding exogenous/autonomous:
 
Just to make it look symmetrical, let autonomous consumption a = C0
 
Sub-zero means autonomous or exogenous.
 
Here’s total income:
1) Yt= bYd+ + a+I+NX  +G
 
Here’s autonomous income.
2)Yt0 = C0+I0+NX0  +G0
 
bYd is not in autonomous income. So what do you subtract, to make the “multiplier”?

 

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Tugwit replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:30 PM

My problem is that Keynesians are impervious to logic because they claim to have math. But they don't show all their math, tell stories that are contradicted by their own equations, use algebra tricks, and nonsense math like substituting an equation back into itself.

My other problem, is that mises.org seems to be a hotbed of Keynesianism :D

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Wheylous replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:32 PM

Maybe Tugwit is getting to my head, but there might be a slight problem in the equations presented. They say C = Cbar + b(Y-T). However, disposable income isn't Y-T, it's Y-T-Cbar.

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Wheylous replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:34 PM

 So autonomous and exogenous are the same. So what?

You just said they don't take autonomous consumption into account.

Y is not always total income. Look around and you will find some Keynesians using it for disposable income, and doing this:

However it may be, this guy didn't do that.

3) If you look at the entire set of equations, you will find that you can't add to any of the variables, without violating the order of operations.

I don't think you understand the concept of plugging numbers in. Do you want me to write out an example for you?

You cannot retroactively apply b to T, it only applies to Yd.

Yd is Y-T. So if you apply b to Yd then you do b(Yd) = b(Y-T) = bY-bT

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I looked at the Tugwit blog, I dont find ti credible.

There was this stuff >

Keynesians now say that if we add $1 to the $10 part, and “multiply”, the result is as follows: 

2) 100 = (10/1) x 10
              (10/1) x 10 + 1 = 110

Unbelievable! Three Stooges math. 

 

---

but this criticism is itself false.

consider a simple equation.

Force = Acceletarion * Mass  (thanks Newton)

lets say

Force = 10m/s^2  *10kg  = 100kgm/s^2

lets 'add' a kilo to the weight and find out what the force is now given the condition that the acceleration is the same

Force = 10m/s^2 *(10+1) kg = 110kgm/s^2   (i.e. not 101)

 

Where there is no property there is no justice; a proposition as certain as any demonstration in Euclid

Fools! not to see that what they madly desire would be a calamity to them as no hands but their own could bring

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Wheylous replied on Sun, Sep 30 2012 12:43 PM

I tried using that exact logic:

http://mises.org/community/forums/p/25406/486972.aspx#486972

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