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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: december-17-2010 This week we have been a bit confused with the market action. Although we believe that the recent increase in yields is due to higher output expectations, which drive a reallocation in portfolios out of fixed income and into equities (i.e. expected to provide higher returns adjusted
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: december-14-2010 We think a quick recap of the market action in the last days is warranted today. On November 29th , we made the point that the European Union was showing willingness, commitment to overcome their structural (i.e. institutional) weaknesses as well as fiscal imbalances. We added that
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: december-10-2010 This wasn’t a good week for us. We began it in bed, sick, trying at the same time to figure out what was happening in the markets, caught in the midst of a sell-off in Treasuries and stronger US dollar. But, could we be heading towards a stronger USD? To begin, let’s
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: december-6-2010 When last Friday gold jumped to $1,400s/oz post announcement of the employment data in the US, we were not surprised at all. What surprised us was the strength in oil and other commodities. Had we not seen it coming? Of course we did, for we have been forecasting stagflation since
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: december-2-2010 Again, most of the action this week has been driven by speculation on the future of the European Union. Let’s begin today by repeating what we left with a week ago, when we changed our view, radically, on the survival of the Euro: “ …We think the EU is far more
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-29-2010 We start the week with three main themes, plus the absence of one. Indeed, yesterday the EU/IMF disclosed the “85 Milliarden Euro Rettungspaket für Irland”. So far, this is to the best of our understanding, what has been agreed to: -In terms of sources, das Paket
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Click here to read this article in pdf format: november-24-2010 We usually publish on Mondays, but this time, we wanted to see things play out before coming back. We stand therefore by our forecast published back in September, when most saw the European Financial Stability Facility as a source of strength for the Euro, while we publicly disagreed: We
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-18-2010 A quick note to finish the week…We think we are entering a new stage in the dynamics of the Eurozone, and that the ongoing negotiation between Ireland and the European Union as well as the weakness in the Euro prove that the comment we made on September 9th was appropriate
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-16-2010 We are writing with hesitation this morning. For the first time in a long time, we feel at a loss in terms of markets’ near term direction. We want to believe that the trend in asset inflation is alive and healthy and that what took place on Thursday-Friday, was simply a correction
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-11-2010 Since our last letter, commodities (excluding oil) have sold off. The developments out of Ireland have impacted the Euro, as we discussed earlier and, in addition on Tuesday, the CME announced at close that deposits and margins on silver contracts and hedge positions would be raised