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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: http:www.sibileau.com/martin I thought it would be worthwhile to start the week describing how the last one ended. Today’s letter will be merely descriptive (vs. the typical analytical format) and full of charts, but I think that sometimes, there is value in induction. With positive news out
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: www.sibileau.com/martin Normal 0 false false false Let me begin with the obvious: the 3-mo Libor - Overnight Index Swap spread. It made a new low. 3-mo Libor was 44.97bps, driving this spread to 26.07bps. The system is increasingly receiving liquidity, which needs to be placed somewhere, and hence
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: www.sibileau.com/martin Back from a brief vacation, I have more questions than answers. Since last week, it is obvious the general outlook is more uncertain. I’ve been endlessly trying to figure out how a recovery can take place when aggregate demand doesn’t seem to be picking up, interest
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: www.sibileau.com/martin I am a bit more confused today than I was yesterday. I was hoping to see a bear flattening in the yield curve, indicating that implementation of an exit strategy by the Fed was in the works. A bear flattener is a move in rates where short-term rates increase faster than long
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(To subscribe to this daily market letter and receive it by email, in pdf format, please visit : www.sibileau.com/martin ) Very interesting trading session yesterday… As you can see in Chart 1 below, the morning started with a very weak USD and a steepening move in Treasuries. By 1pm, when the $31BN 4-week bills auction took place, the 2039s
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(To subscribe to this daily market letter and receive it by email, in pdf format, please visit : www.sibileau.com/martin ) We are back from a relaxing time with friends, at the shores of Lake Huron, only to find that I may have now to update my views. Let’s see: -Equities: Everyone always needs a benchmark. To judge my view on equities, I read
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(To subscribe to this daily market letter and receive it by email, in pdf format, please visit : www.sibileau.com/martin ) This is the last letter of the week (“A View from the Trenches” is not published on Fridays) and in Canada, next Monday is a civic holiday. A View from the Trenches will be published again on Tuesday. With this in mind
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(To subscribe to this daily market letter and receive it by email, in pdf format, please visit : www.sibileau.com/martin ) This is turning out to be a tedious week, with a mix of different readings on macro data about the housing market, the shape of the (US) consumer and the validity of the signals we are getting from earnings releases. But, above
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(To subscribe to this daily market letter and receive it by email, in pdf format, please visit : www.sibileau.com/martin ) With the relative normalization trend in place, a lot of different investment themes start to appear. These themes have a different impact on the equities, credit, commodities and sovereign markets. Asset classes (and the respective
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( To subscribe to this daily market letter and receive it by email, in pdf format, please visit : www.sibileau.com/martin ) We start a week in which $236BN in bills and coupons will be supplied. Everyone I’ve spoken to in the last days has been a bit cautious on the signals of the officially introduced weak recovery. Yet, the markets (all of them