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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: february-16-2011 Perhaps the most relevant factor shaping the action this week is the absence of a significant, market moving event. Investors seem to just be marking time. Every major decision is being postponed by policy makers and the drift higher in stocks is simply following the quantitative
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: february-11-2011 Just after our last letter on Monday, when we wrote that “…out of China, we expect no news on rates or credit manipulation (i.e. reserve requirement ratios) until March…” we were surprised by a 25bps increase. The fact that the increase took place during
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: february-7-2011 We start this week with what we ended the last one. In our view, the two main concerns or sources of volatility that remain from last week are the situation in Egypt and the uncertainty over the future scope of the EU’s European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The picture
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: february-2-2011 Some quick comments for the mid-week, following up on our thesis that should the EFSF be used to purchase outstanding sovereign peripheral debt, the Euro would strengthen and possibly steal market share to gold within the reserve currency market. To begin with, in the past 48hrs
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: january-28-2011 We were as surprised as many others when the lows of $1325/oz were taken yesterday and gold made it all the way down to $1,310/oz, after the previous post-FOMC rally. We were the more surprised to see this drop without major movements in rates or anything else that would have explained
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: january-26-2011 This is a week during which the global markets’ tectonic plates are shifting, and the shift is not too quiet. Our letter today will sound more like a monologue rather than a well laid-out explanation of what we think is occurring. The reason is simple: We are uncertain. We
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: january-21-20111 We had our hesitations about writing today, for nothing new has occurred in the past sessions, right? Or has it…Well, yes, we know, you must be thinking that the recent sell-off in commodities, stocks and rates should be enough proof that perhaps the three key assumptions
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Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: january-17-2011 After almost a month, the most part of which we spent traveling in Argentina, we resume our publication with the first letter of 2011. A few weeks into the year and we don’t see but the continuation of themes we singled out at the end of 2010. More than a month ago, on December
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We have followed and continue to follow with utmost interest the political career of US Congressman Ron Paul. We sympathize with Mr. Paul’s cause for sound money, but he and his political life reminds us of Cicero in the face of Rome’s final days as a Republic. Mr. Paul may be remembered by historians of the United States, just as Cicero
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This is our last letter of the year. Briefly, we want to go over the main themes that we leave with: To have structure, we will classify the themes according to their respective currency zones. Starting with the US, we must say we’re impressed by the level of optimism expressed in the many research notes we’ve read in the past week. The