A View from the Trenches, September 27th, 2011: "Why Operation Twist is inflationary"

re: A View from the Trenches, September 27th, 2011: "Why Operation Twist is inflationary"

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re: A View from the Trenches, September 27th, 2011: "Why Operation Twist is inflationary"

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re: A View from the Trenches, September 27th, 2011: "Why Operation Twist is inflationary"

Martin Sibileau — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 14:12:53 GMT

Simply, if the EFSF gets the money from the market, no new money is printed. I explained this back in Jan/11, when there was hope this would happen: www.sibileau.com/martin/2011/01/28

But, given the size of the bailout, the EFSF might well place their debt at the ECB = new money is printed. The EFSF would issue bonds and the ECB would buy them. Perhapns, the ECB would also sterilize them as they do now with peripheral debt, but they would do so at a lower policy rate, as is expected from the next meeting. This would be supportive of gold, in US dollars, but perhaps not in Euros. The reason being, that from then on, all eyes would now go to the US deficit.

Another thing to watch today is the increase in mortgage applications from last week, in the US, and the effect in the housing market, of the Fed's latest Operation Twist. I will explain this in the next letter. For now, let's say that this point is only neutral to gold.

MS.

re: A View from the Trenches, September 27th, 2011: "Why Operation Twist is inflationary"

Friedrich Dominicus — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 08:33:21 GMT

I'm really curious about:

"In summary, if the Euro crisis finds a fiscal way out in which the European Central Bank (ECB) does not have to capitulate (and this includes the ECB lending to a bigger European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)) we will not have phase 3, and gold will continue to sell off, in our opinion, at the expense of equities. If the ECB is made to capitulate because no fiscal solution is reached and the only way out is a weaker Euro, we will enter phase 3, with gold and equities rallying."

They are thinking about "leveraging" the money given to the ESFS at levels well beyond 20? Can't remember. Well they want to guarantee the looses with extra leveraged money they still do now own. I can not imagine how that may work.