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Is the Euro Toast?

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Bill posted on Tue, Nov 30 2010 11:19 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pypd5kYTh24

Do you think one day soon we'll see the D-Mark ,Lira ,Franc, Guilder et al back in circulation? How about the Dollar, amid all the speculation post QE2 instead of going down it has gained ground, mostly due to the Euro winning the most ugly contest as of late. Do you think a panicked Euro market will race to the Dollar or precious metals? I'd welcome an Austrian opnion on the FX

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Hahahaha well Nigel Farage is my new hero, and I didn't even know who he was before this. What did he mean about Belgium not having a government for 6 months?

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Suggested by Arvin

Both George Soros and Gerald Celente have given the euro and the EU ten years at the most "in the present form". When you have these two men agreeing on any topic, you should start worrying.

A few weeks ago we had a professor from the University of Georgia (his name eludes me at the moment, sorry) as a guest speaker at an entrepreneurs' convention here. He shocked the audience by saying "Entrepreneurs, stop asking your government or the EU for favors: it's absolutely useless. Economical policies in Europe are dictated from Berlin". It was refreshing to see someone agreeing with me about the EU and the euro being the third attempt by Germany to achieve hegemony over Europe.

The future of the euro and the EU lies with Germany and Germany is starting having a few doubts about the present format. Wolfgang Schauble, the Minister of Finance, addressed the Bundestag on Monday about the gravity of the situation: Germany can ill afford to bail out anybody else. Herr Schauble was especially worried about the increasing national debt: while relatively small by European standards, it is increasing too fast and, with an ageing population with rising expectations about public services, it will become difficult to "service" in a few years without increasing direct taxation, something that would hurt the national economy (please note that Germany has a long tradition of increasing fuel duties, sales taxes etc to shift costs from firms to individuals). Herr Schauble also recognized that, for all the big talks in Brussels and the jingoism of such cowardly lions as Italy and France, it is Germany which is shouldering the burden to prevent debt default by Ireland and Greece. He didn't mention that the main beneficiaries of these bail outs were French and German banks but this is common knowledge so we'll give him a free pass this time. 

The EU (Germany) proposed new bail out measures to kick in from 2012 or 2013. It's too late. Portugal or Spain will need a bail out by then. Spain is the cause of much worry in Berlin: together with Italy it was the country most hurt by the EMU. It's a very large economy in very bad shape: the housing boom, partially fuelled by an artificially high demand of retirement/vacation houses by Germans, is gone. It's one of the most catastrophic burst in the EU history and everybody is doing his/her best not to think about it. Zapatero's government is powerless and its bumbling attempts at rising quick cash by increasing taxation on foreign investors and individuals has capitals fleeing from the country: for example Honda dismantled its Montesa factory in Catalunya at record speed and sent the machinery to Atessa in Italy. Again it seems nobody saw this coming except for the Austrians.

Together we go unsung... together we go down with our people
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A textbook example eof what Jung called synchronicities: I used to look at whatever the UKIP channel on Youtube had, but I lost the habit some months ago. Yester night, all of a sudden, I remembered to go check them again, and I saw this precise video.  

The Regression theorem is a memetic equivalent of the Theory of Evolution. To say that the former precludes the free emergence of fiat currencies makes no more sense that to hold that the latter precludes the natural emergence of multicellular organisms.
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Good reply, as usual, Kakugo.

The Economist has had some interesting articles about the euro, and the EU, that seem to be more and more skeptical of the survival of currency and the Union.

Now that Ireland has accepted the forced bailout--which I found interesting since they have some EU20 billion in cash reserves--it seems that the two most likely targets for bailouts are Portugal and Spain.  There was an interesting comment that the German paper Bild had made about who is next, something along the lines of "Are we going to pay for everyone?"

"All men having power ought to be distrusted to a certain degree." -James Madison

"If government were efficient, it would cease to exist."

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Vitor replied on Wed, Dec 1 2010 5:55 AM

Brian, read the last 2 paragraphs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_government#Government_and_politics

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Kakugo replied on Wed, Dec 1 2010 10:27 AM

ricarpe:

Good reply, as usual, Kakugo.

The Economist has had some interesting articles about the euro, and the EU, that seem to be more and more skeptical of the survival of currency and the Union.

Now that Ireland has accepted the forced bailout--which I found interesting since they have some EU20 billion in cash reserves--it seems that the two most likely targets for bailouts are Portugal and Spain.  There was an interesting comment that the German paper Bild had made about who is next, something along the lines of "Are we going to pay for everyone?"

 
Thanks you are too kind.
 
I have often wondered what passed through the minds of Spanish and Italian politicians when they subscribed the EMU which, in a single stroke, destroyed one of their main strengths of their economies: currency devaluation. Both countries tried to recover the lost ground through housing booms artificially initiated by extremely low interest rates from the ECB and idiotic legislation and both countries came to over rely on housing as a mean of making ends. Now the boom is over and somebody has to hold the bag. Italy (or more correctly, historical Lombardy, meaning the area north of the Appenines) still has a good manufacturing base, albeit eroded by the aforementioned EMU, decreasing capital investments, high taxation and endless labor issues. Spain's manufacturing base is nowhere near as solid. I'd like to have Mr Catalan's comments on the issue since he's far more familiar with it than I am but I strongly suspect the part of Spanish economy directly or indirectly tied to housing is alarmingly large. As monoculture in agriculture taught us putting all your eggs in one basket makes for easy and quick profits but also leaves you extremely vulnerable.
 
To get back to the original issue, even Milton Friedman warned EU leaders back in 1997 that the idea of a "one-size-fits-all" fiat currency was idiotic at the best and catastrophic at the worst. He was laughed off as the usual "free market crackpot from the Reagan era" (why do people still think Reagan was pro-free market?) but it looks like he's having the final laughter. We are daily bombarded by medias trying to convince us that no sacrifice is too small to "save the euro"... but nobody has called for the end of the euro. Are mainstream shills reading this website or do their masters have a bad coscience? Or are we being prepared for the inevitable?
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Hahahaha well Nigel Farage is my new hero, and I didn't even know who he was before this. What did he mean about Belgium not having a government for 6 months? Van Rompuy’s appointment as President of the European Council under the Treaty of Lisbon paved the way for Leterme to regain his position as Prime Minister in November 2009. However, an electoral dispute between the francophone and Flemish parties continually plagued his government coalition, which finally collapsed in April 2010. Leterme and his ministers now serve as a caretaker government until general elections are held in June 2010 and a new coalition forms.

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The euro is toast and the dollar is jam.

The recent Fed disclosure has the U.S. bailing out the EU via European Banks.  In addition, the US is backing upping the security net fund for the EU.  Once the EU hits the wall, I think it's only a matter of time for the rest of the dominoes to fall.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4dd95e42-fd6d-11df-a049-00144feab49a.html#axzz16uX8Lp91

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40454469

The recent disclosures do highlight just how weak the situation is globally, and if the Fed is the bank of last resort, then a lot of currencies may be toast.

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What the hell? You posted this 3 days back and Farage is involved in a (non-fatal!!) plane accident today?

Who are you Bill Smith? Who are you?

Clayton -

http://voluntaryistreader.wordpress.com
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Clayton:

What the hell? You posted this 3 days back and Farage is involved in a (non-fatal!!) plane accident today?

Who are you Bill Smith? Who are you?

Clayton -

That was some time back in election time, I believe. But still, the guy is unbreakable.

The Regression theorem is a memetic equivalent of the Theory of Evolution. To say that the former precludes the free emergence of fiat currencies makes no more sense that to hold that the latter precludes the natural emergence of multicellular organisms.
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K.C. Farmer:

The euro is toast and the dollar is jam.

The recent Fed disclosure has the U.S. bailing out the EU via European Banks.  In addition, the US is backing upping the security net fund for the EU.  Once the EU hits the wall, I think it's only a matter of time for the rest of the dominoes to fall.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4dd95e42-fd6d-11df-a049-00144feab49a.html#axzz16uX8Lp91

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40454469

The recent disclosures do highlight just how weak the situation is globally, and if the Fed is the bank of last resort, then a lot of currencies may be toast.

 
Good read. I am much amused by the use of the word "contagion" these days, implying either deep ignorance of the problem itself or calculated misinformation. They can fool the average boobus still thinking in 1890 terms of class conflict but they aren't fooling investors. While speculators (including all the large banks) are saddling themselves with more and more bonds hoping for a quick return and a bail out in case things go sour, savvy investors are buying precious metals and turning to the Far East. Talk about time preferences!
 
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