Do you think the Constitution will be officially discarded? One World Government? Or on the Paulite track?
I just don't know how much longer we can sustain the size of our government and military.
It's all going to dust. No life on earth evermore. So I give up!
joking!
2 years - States begin to default, social programs collapse,leading to large scale rioting.
5 or 10, who knows after that shit-storm.
Jackson LaRose: 2 years - States begin to default, social programs collapse,leading to large scale rioting. 5 or 10, who knows after that shit-storm.
Honestly, that sounds better in the short hand. I have no clue what's going to become of me and my family, friends.
I'm very optimistic in general about certain aspects of the future, but this one just keeps rearing it's ugly head and won't go away.
People say everything is going to be fine and that I worry too much, but then again they were all in the business of flipping houses not too long ago.
LvMIenthusiast: People say everything is going to be fine and that I worry too much, but then again they were all in the business of flipping houses not too long ago.
People always think seriously bad stuff only ever happens in far away exotic places. Trouble is every place is far and exotic looking to someone, it's just a matter of where you're standing.
2 - 5 years? Iran.
10 years? The Union will be dissolved or close to it.
I think this econ crises will only get much worse, at which point there will surely be much change. The question is whether the change will be towards move statism or less. History indicates that there is almost always a lessening of freedom following econ troubles.
In 5 years - severe deflation wrecks the economy.
In 10 years - severe hyperinflation wrecks the economy even more
Giant_Joe: 10 years? The Union will be dissolved or close to it.
It will become the Empire of the Americas (it will still be called the U.S.A., it's just that the "States" being referred to will be countries). Can't sustain the Empire? No problem, print and borrow, find ways to compel other nations to buy our debt. Social unrest? Start a war somewhere (you suspect Iran), wars keep people in line and are good for the economy, right? Unfunded liabilities (social security / medicare / Obama Plan)? Congress will pass laws to "drive health care costs down" (a euphemism). And, the "R's" and "D's" will continue to take turns controlling us, I mean, "leading the nation". Political opposition will be allowed, but it must be pre-approved.
"The market is a process." - Ludwig von Mises, as related by Israel Kirzner. "Capital formation is a beautiful thing" - Chloe732.
2 years: Move to Asia?
5-10 years: US Hyperinflation
Paul: In 5 years - severe deflation wrecks the economy. In 10 years - severe hyperinflation wrecks the economy even more
Why would the deflation happen first? I think that Larose's prediction is most likely.
chloe732: Giant_Joe: 10 years? The Union will be dissolved or close to it. It will become the Empire of the Americas (it will still be called the U.S.A., it's just that the "States" being referred to will be countries). Can't sustain the Empire? No problem, print and borrow, find ways to compel other nations to buy our debt. Social unrest? Start a war somewhere (you suspect Iran), wars keep people in line and are good for the economy, right? Unfunded liabilities (social security / medicare / Obama Plan)? Congress will pass laws to "drive health care costs down" (a euphemism). And, the "R's" and "D's" will continue to take turns controlling us, I mean, "leading the nation". Political opposition will be allowed, but it must be pre-approved.
I could have sworn that the states are of "countries" now too.
As for predictions? I have nothing detailed. I can only say that if policies continue as they are, the capital base will continue to be consumed.
This is apparently a Man Talk Forum: No Women Allowed!
Telpeurion's Disliked Person of the Week: David Kramer
No2statism: Do you think the Constitution will be officially discarded? One World Government? Or on the Paulite track? I just don't know how much longer we can sustain the size of our government and military.
I can see the US becoming a modern day Athens with China being our Sparta or Thebes. But who will be Alexander the Great -the UN?
The Late Andrew Ryan: Paul: In 5 years - severe deflation wrecks the economy. In 10 years - severe hyperinflation wrecks the economy even more Why would the deflation happen first? I think that Larose's prediction is most likely.
Sept 1920 Deflation
fakename: No2statism: Do you think the Constitution will be officially discarded? One World Government? Or on the Paulite track? I just don't know how much longer we can sustain the size of our government and military. I can see the US becoming a modern day Athens with China being our Sparta or Thebes. But who will be Alexander the Great -the UN?
Shaka Zulu... if it comes to that.
viresh amin: Sept 1920 Deflation
Mmm.... IDK, that was only a short period within the shit storm and obviously it wasn't the deflation that occured originally or was the cause of any concern... But jesus christ those are some impressive figures... The most being September to October, money supply increasing 30 times in 30 days... The November figure is the one that looks the most impressive though.
It's going to be total anarchy.
Whether or not it's freedom, that has yet to be decided.
The fallacies of intellectual communism, a compilation - On the nature of power
Amazing table! Can you please provide the source/reference?
Z.
z1235: viresh amin: Sept 1920 Deflation Amazing table! Can you please provide the source/reference? Z.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/wallybently100802.html
In 2 years, the government will be even bigger than it is. Healthcare reform will still be in debate.
In 5 years, Obama's 2nd term will prove that government will never stop growing and that we don't have control over who's in office at all.
In 10 years, Obama will still be in office (like FDR) because our economy will be that bad and the majority of Americans are leftists who believe that the great nation of America is 100% free no matter what the government does: "Its America, come on, things like that don't happen here.."
Being an economics major in my 4th year at the University of California, Irvine has taught me many things about the general population. When there's some group having some sort of musical or dancing performance at the student center during lunch, almost the entire crowd is enthusiastic about it and are paying their full attention to it. On the other hand, when an individual tries to stand up on the same stage and talk about why our economy is in this mess and why the government needs to shrink, everyone in the crowd talks over him and I usually see about 3 or 4 people actually listening to the speaker.
Britain survived the loss of Empire, so perhaps the US too will become a second-rate little socialist mess funded by China.
How did you see its future 2, 5, 10 years ago?
viresh amin: The Late Andrew Ryan: Paul: In 5 years - severe deflation wrecks the economy. In 10 years - severe hyperinflation wrecks the economy even more Why would the deflation happen first? I think that Larose's prediction is most likely. Sept 1920 Deflation
We still hold the record.
Giant_Joe: 2 - 5 years? Iran.
I agree with that. Monumental pressure is being applied on China to bow to every US whim: right now she is being pressured to revalue the yuan, to approve sanctions on Iran and to join the cap and trade scheme. The US can probably armwrestle/cajole them into accepting a single one among these three. But US-China relationships will deteriorate even faster than now. War with Iran and skyrocketing Gulf oil prices would hurt both China and the EU the most but the EU poses no threat to the US. In fact the EU may even join the US in the foolish embargo against Iran despite the fact that Iran is a much better trading partner than Israel. And Iran doesn't pester us with continuous requests of free stuff "because you killed Jews in the past".
In the meantime the phony recovery will most likely go bust as capital investments grow thinner and thinner: lending money from the Fed at near 0% and using that money to buy US governments bonds yielding 3,5/4% will become a favorite of both banks and other financial institutions. Government spending will grow at an unprecedented pace as it will be seen as a necessary condition for GDP growth and to fight unemployment. I frankly believe government jobs won't be enough to cover the severe bleeding of private sector jobs so we'll probably see a net loss in the next years while GDP will grow at a tumultuous pace. Ron Paul will probably point this out a thousand times in the next two years but he'll only reap scorn for being "a nutcase". In the meantime Wall Street will desperately look for the next bubble to inflate since a stock market crash is bound to happen. Even when adjusted for inflation present stock values have completely lost touch with reality.
In the end the US will squander away their strength to prevent Baby Boomers and their sons from paying the price due of runaway monetary inflation, rampant speculation and mindless optimism: "no correction!" will become a rallying cry and no sacrifice will be spared to avoid the burst. In turn the US will lose what little respect they still have abroad: if war with Iran breaks out that respect will evaporate even faster. If Israel pulls another "Cast Lead" without the US and UN objecting in any meaningful way more respect will be lost. At that time more and more resources will be poured into propping up dangerous autocrats like Mubarak and useless puppets like Karzai: see, we have plenty of friends in the world! Everybody loves us!
But beyond this I see a large war as inevitable. While I consider Marc Faber a bit of a doomsayer I am with him on this. Right now you would expect the US to clash with China but many scenarios are possible: after all who would have thought in 1929 that the mighty French army, the finest in the world, would be soundly defeated by the defenseless Germans just eleven years later?