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Is the human population decline in the near future ?

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the5thresistance Posted: Sat, May 15 2010 3:53 AM

a demographic winter ?

a true tragedy of the commons ?

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It could happen.

Contrary to the myth of overpopulated Third World, only India, Brazil, and Indonesia have significantly large populations AND high net birth rates.

Africa, Middle East, and Eastern Europe are scantily populated and also have low population growth rates. African nations have people dying of starvation or illness, and geographical hindrances prevent large urban concentrations supported by surplus producing agriculture than can allow a large number of healthy families with children to come up. The Middle East is mostly desert and thus supports a limited number of people. Eastern Europe has bad soil that prevents high quality agriculture that could support larger growing healthy populations, and again has geographical features that prevent urban concentrations that allow large number of healthy families.

South America is roughly moderate when it comes to both population growth and population size.

In the First World, North America and Western Europe have had declining birth rates for a long time. In North America, however, Hispanics have a birth rate similar to Indonesians and Indians.

However, even India is having falling birth rates.

I expect a peak in human population in my lifetime.

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cret replied on Sat, May 15 2010 1:42 PM


the plague also happend

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lol wtf ?

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Praetyre replied on Sat, May 15 2010 9:46 PM

Ah, a NUTBAR spammer.. that's an interesting combination.

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Merlin replied on Sun, May 16 2010 7:34 AM

The closer one gets to a world government, the scarcer capital becomes, the lower the optimal population level,. Hence, I agree that, for the next 20 year, population around the work will reach a minimal point.

The Regression theorem is a memetic equivalent of the Theory of Evolution. To say that the former precludes the free emergence of fiat currencies makes no more sense that to hold that the latter precludes the natural emergence of multicellular organisms.
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Check out the documentary Demographic Winter. It features the Nobel Prize-winning Chicago economist Gary Becker, inter alii. It shows how economists are predicting a peak in world population by circa 2050.

I am wondering what Austrian economists would think of this. Do they see a negative effect on an economy due to birth-rate limiting behaviours like contraception, abortion, sodomy, cohabitation, divorce, etc., all of which were illegal in the United States until recently? This would seem to be right up Mises's "human action" alley. Perhaps he discusses, without necessarily passing a moral judgment, the effects of these human actions on an economy in his Human Action? Thanks

If you think this will hijack this thread, I've started a new one here.

Cf. also the Population Research Institute.

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