Current Events

Re: Statisticians finally admit they have no idea

Anenome — Sun, 21 Oct 2012 05:38:29 GMT

Last election, by now, the vegas / offshore betters had stopped taking bets and paid out on Obama.

Intrade still gives Obama a comfortable margin to win, but Intrade values are known to follow polling rather than be a true predictor, plus its susceptible to political betting.

As for Vegas, this year they're still taking bets, though Obama is favored, as he has the easier path to victory and more electoral votes already locked up.

Statisticians finally admit they have no idea

Wheylous — Sun, 21 Oct 2012 02:30:04 GMT

As most surveys show Obama and Romney locked in a virtual dead heat, Gallup finds that the Republican would win by a comfortable six percentage points if the election were held today:

http://news.yahoo.com/other-polls-show-tight-race-gallup-stands-apart-020811767.html

"Why is it so different?" he said. "The bottom line is we just don't know."

Finally we get an admission that real-world variables are extremely difficult to control.