Re: Economists are stupid: LULZ

MatthewWilliam — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 05:43:13 GMT

eliotn:
Black Friday stockmarket crash in New York, 1929: the most famous financial disaster in history. Did economists predict it? Heck no. If you had followed the advice of economists in 1928, you would have put your life savings into stocks, as too many people did.

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." - Irving Fisher, 1929

“A great crash is coming, and I don’t want my name in any way connected with it.” - Ludwig von Mises, 1929

Re: Economists are stupid: LULZ

Eric — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 05:34:34 GMT

funny, good points

Economists are stupid: LULZ

eliotn — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 23:36:28 GMT

"Economists Are Stupid.

The reason I say 'economists are stupid' is because they are. Economists have many theories about how economies work- but if their theories are worth anything, shouldn't they be able to predict major booms and busts? If a tornado destroys your home, and the local T.V. weatherman failed to predict even the possibility of tornadoes in your area- worse, he said to expect nothing but clear skies- would you trust him ever again? No? Well then, lets look at the track record of economists over the last few decades, shall we?

Late 1990s: many economists talk excitedly about the "end of the business cycle" (the same prediction economists of the 1920s made.) When a small minority of economists, and many non-economists, start fretting about the boom in 'dot.com' stocks, of companies which have never made a profit, most economists say not to worry, and even say that profitability no longer matters- just market share. Then the Nasdaq crashes.

1997 (or thereabouts): 'The Economist' (a newsmagazine) predicts that oil will reach record low prices within 6 months. 6 months later, the cost of oil per barrel had doubled.

1997: The Asian Financial Crisis. The currencies of South Korea, Thailand and several other East Asian and Southeast Asian countries lose up to half their value. Economies in the region are sent into a tailspin from which many have still not fully recovered, nine years later. No respected economist expected or forewarned of it.

Early 1990s: In the United States, as the American economy recovers from a brief recession, with few new jobs added, many economists start talking about a "jobless recovery." By the mid-1990s, unemployment in the United States was lower than it had been in almost 30 years.

1991: Japan's real estate bubble bursts, beginning Japan's "Lost Decade" (actually 15 years, and counting) of 1.1% growth, on average, and no less than four recessions. Few if any Japanese or foreign economists predicted it. Of those few who did predict the property crash, none predicted the long period of stagnation which followed.

1987: The biggest stockmarket crash in New York since 1929 catches economists by surprise. Stockmarkets around the world crash in sequence- despite safeguards which supposedly would make such a chain reaction impossible. But there is no immediate recession afterwards- again, despite economists' predictions.

1950s Post War boom in the U.S. and Canada: the majority consensus among economists was a return to recession following World War II.

Black Friday stockmarket crash in New York, 1929: the most famous financial disaster in history. Did economists predict it? Heck no. If you had followed the advice of economists in 1928, you would have put your life savings into stocks, as too many people did.

The moral: economists are stupid. Trust them at your peril."

I thought this was totally fallicious, but at the same time, shockingly true, with regards to business cycles, that most economists could not see the business cycle reaccuring from govt. intervention.

Newbies

Re: Economists are stupid: LULZ

Re: Economists are stupid: LULZ

Economists are stupid: LULZ

"Economists Are Stupid.