General

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

Jargon — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 08:30:28 GMT

I know I already bumped this but this is an important discussion. I'll give it up if this one doesn't take, but so far my internet searching hasn't given a satisfactory answer. I'm beginning to think that the most probable measure is halfway inbetween the CPU and Shadowstats.

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

Jargon — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 07:29:31 GMT

Caley McKibbin:

Shadowstats CPI is even more crock than bureau CPI. John Williams already admitted that he just adds an arbitrary number to some old CPI method.

Can you substantiate this?

I've been reconsidering my stance on Shadowstats. It diverges pretty severely from Billion Prices Project which seems to be a pretty objective measures, though admittedly I don't know much (anything) about it. BPP was just slightly above the CPI on a yearly basis chart. Certainly not indicative of a 10% rate.

In contrast to the above point, there's this: http://www.wealthwire.com/news/inflation/839

How can these two be reconciled?

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

Mercator — Sun, 22 May 2011 18:57:10 GMT

Let's keep repeating to ourselves: "War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength."

Oh, and "the Government numbers on inflation and GDP are right. I know because a Statist blog said so."

Cool ad hominem.

You're right. Fair enough. Sorry. I disagree with your source because I think it's insubstantial, slanted and leads to absurd conlcusions.

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

Caley McKibbin — Sun, 22 May 2011 18:43:52 GMT

Shadowstats CPI is even more crock than bureau CPI. John Williams already admitted that he just adds an arbitrary number to some old CPI method.

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

justinx0r — Sun, 22 May 2011 18:41:33 GMT

Let's keep repeating to ourselves: "War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength."

Oh, and "the Government numbers on inflation and GDP are right. I know because a Statist blog said so."

Cool ad hominem.

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

Mercator — Sun, 22 May 2011 18:21:41 GMT

Let's keep repeating to ourselves: "War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength."

Oh, and "the Government numbers on inflation and GDP are right. I know because a Statist blog said so."

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

John James — Sun, 22 May 2011 16:38:06 GMT

Wow. 360 day bump. Freaked me out for a second and made me think it somehow already the 27th.

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

justinx0r — Sun, 22 May 2011 16:37:29 GMT

No, shadow stats is not reliable.

http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/03/shadow-stats-debunked-part-i.html

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

Mercator — Sun, 22 May 2011 16:36:56 GMT

People who actually make "real" investment decisions use shadowstats.

I do.

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

soe — Sun, 22 May 2011 16:07:49 GMT

What do you think about this article re. shadowstats inflation stats?

http://econologos.wordpress.com/2011/05/15/the-absurdity-of-shadowstats-inflation-estimates/#more-10

Quote:

For 2005-2010, CPI-U says cumulative inflation was 13.4%, ShadowStats claims it was 60%.
For 2000-2010, CPI-U says 28.7%, Williams says 144.7%.
For 1990-2010, CPI-U says 73%, Williams says 378.9%.

So lets go back 10 years. CPI-U indicates that what cost $100 in 2010 cost $77.71 in 2000. According to ShadowStats, what cost $100 last year cost just $40.86 in 2000.

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

ThreeTrees — Fri, 28 May 2010 07:47:28 GMT

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph has referenced shadowstats before, for what it's worth. It's a step in the right direction at any rate. John Williams sells a product and his customers rely on his methods to allocate their capital effectively, he has a very strong incentive to make his data as representative of reality as he can.

Re: Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

cret — Fri, 28 May 2010 06:19:07 GMT

does shadow stats use govt data? would you consider that reliable??

does shadow stats use govt methodology?? would you consider that reliable??

you may be better off doing your own personal cpi and wage rate calulations.

Is shadow stats a reliable source ?

the5thresistance — Fri, 28 May 2010 05:38:32 GMT

??????????????????????????????????????????

http://www.shadowstats.com/