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Re: What Will Happen to Greece if they Default?

EmperorNero — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 10:13:09 GMT

Autolykos:
EmperorNero:
Not Greek banks, the banks that lent money to the Greek state. They're mostly western European and American. They're really the ones being bailed out. And that's why a default ain't gonna happen.

Really? With interest for one-year Greek bonds at over 100%, you still don't think a Greek default will ever happen?

Yes. The rest of Europe, mostly Germany, will bail those bankers out. Even if they have to spend half of Europes GDP on it. That's what the whole point of the Euro was in the first place. High interest is a great thing if you're the one getting it. And there's no risk if you're the banker who knows the whole deal is going to be bailed out by your politician friends. You could say that all that saber-rattling about a Greek default is precisely to drive up the interest of Greek bonds.

That is, unless they want to crash the economy, but I'm assuming they just want to make money. It's a scary scenario though. Two years ago internet people were speculating whether the 'evil bankers' want to bring down the Dollar to crash the economy and enslave the commoners. Now they could bring down the Dollar and the Euro simultaneously!

Re: What Will Happen to Greece if they Default?

No2statism — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 01:35:27 GMT

Re: What Will Happen to Greece if they Default?

Autolykos — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 23:51:06 GMT

EmperorNero:
Not Greek banks, the banks that lent money to the Greek state. They're mostly western European and American. They're really the ones being bailed out. And that's why a default ain't gonna happen.

Really? With interest for one-year Greek bonds at over 100%, you still don't think a Greek default will ever happen?

Re: What Will Happen to Greece if they Default?

Birthday Pony — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 21:44:11 GMT

Best case scenario is after the troika continues to impose harsh austerity Greeks overthrow the dominant system, and Greece is run as a federation of autonomous communities. Outside of Athens, specifically Exarcheia, and Thisaloniki this isn't probable.

Realistically, demonstrations and protests continue with popular assemblies gaining ground until, faced with the Greek state's inability to control the people, the UN's or some other international organization's troops march in and seize control of financial, social, and political institutions until the Greek debt is paid off.

Re: What Will Happen to Greece if they Default?

EmperorNero — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 20:35:19 GMT

limitgov:
Which big banks? Greek big banks? Or other ones too?

Not Greek banks, the banks that lent money to the Greek state. They're mostly western European and American. They're really the ones being bailed out. And that's why a default ain't gonna happen.

Re: What Will Happen to Greece if they Default?

limitgov — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 18:32:26 GMT

"and big banks will get slaughtered"

Which big banks? Greek big banks? Or other ones too?

Re: What Will Happen to Greece if they Default?

Clayton — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 18:16:19 GMT

The private bondholders and big banks will get slaughtered. There might be some problems making deposits and withdrawals and you could have a run on the banks as the banks begin toppling like dominos. The probability that this will happen is increased by the fact that the banks/government is a group of thugs who are expressly threatening the public with exactly this: Don't let us fail or we'll make sure your bond holdings and your life's cash savings goes up in smoke. "Don't let us fail" = accept higher taxes and "austerity", that is, scaling back of the welfare state.

But just like the inflationists can justify inflating to put off the much-feared recession in the immediate future (despite the long-term consequences), the bankster's threats are actually fairly hollow. While there would likely be a temporary freeze-up in the banking system (withdrawals, etc.) it would eventually be sorted out and business would go on as usual... minus mega-banks, orgiastic government spending and massive government bond issues. The fear-mongering is the sheep-dog's bark; it keeps the sheep in their place.

Clayton -

What Will Happen to Greece if they Default?

limitgov — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 17:04:35 GMT

If you were being interviewed on CNN and the reporter asked you, what will happen to the average person in Greece and businesses and the Greek government if they default?

In layman's terms, but be specific. Assume I have no idea what will happen, which, for the most part, I don't know what will happen.