Economics Questions

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

chloe732 — Sat, 18 Sep 2010 05:11:50 GMT

razerfish:
we've had currency crisis in our history,

Whose history? The pattern you describe, if it has occurred, will not occur in the U.S. (I'm referring to a return to redeemable money). The pattern that is in place is the march toward totalitarianism, not liberty. A central bank is critical to the survival of the state (that is, the people chosen by other people to hold power), not to mention the survival of the central bank's banking system and bond market clients.

The crash will occur, but your theory ignores reality. People do not, and will not, respond the way you describe. They will look to government for "help", and will give it any new powers it needs to provide that "help". Look at September, 2008. When people are desperate, they do not turn to themselves, they turn to Uncle Sam. They have been conditioned for several generations to behave this way (public schooling, media, state universities, politics).

Not very optimistic, but it is the truth. Imagine discussing what the future would bring in July, 1914 or August 1939. Nobody could have imagined what was about to unfold. Anyone who was close to describing the soon to be reality would have been called a kook, or cynical, etc. It is September, 2010.

I think I have the American voting public described very well. The voters do not want freedom or liberty, they want benefits. And that is what they will receive, they just don't yet realize the "price" they will have to pay for these "benefits".

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

razerfish — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 11:06:14 GMT

Chloe, we've had currency crisis in our history, and they follow a typical pattern. First you have a gold backed currency, one that can be exchanged at any bank for full value in gold. Then the pyramiding of dollars begins (Fractional Reserve Banking) and, eventually, people notice the rise in prices and don't trust their money and start exchanging it back for their gold, but the bank cannot do this since it doesn't have the gold in reserve, so it stops allowing redemption of specie (usually the government is in cohoots). This causes even more problems and inflation sky-rockets and the currency does a nose-dive in value. At this point, a new currency has to be re-introduced because nobody wants the old one and, of course, it is backed by gold (or silver) and fully redeamable on demand.

The reason I say this will happen is because that's the pattern. I think commodity money because I think this currency crash will be so catastrophic and traumatizing to people that they won't trust a paper currency for a long time afterward. I also think this will discredit the FED like no other event. This depression hasn't been linked to the FED as the cause like, imo, a full blown currency meltdown with. On a more basic, public understanding, the dollar is linked with the FED moreso than, say, economic booms/busts.

As for the reaction of the government? I agree, it will cling to power rather than relinquish it. I see it as an organism, and self survival is paramount to any organism, so government clinging to power is probably in our cards. I doubt freedom will come without revolt at some point.

We'll see. This isn't going to be some far off event. It's probably within the next 2 election cycles.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

cognitivist — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 17:18:47 GMT

Ask the Federal Reserve to tell us what they were created for, and whether or not they're meeting the goals put forth with its inception.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

John Cashin — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 16:58:55 GMT

The Federal Reserve Act of December 23rd, 1913 is unconstitutional on it’s face and was only passed with 3 Congressmen present out of the entire House and Senate members who had gone to travel home across the nation for holidays! Further read “The Money Trust” by Senator Charles A. Lindberg Sr of New Jersey who came back in January 1914 to “discover” such a trecherous Act had passed illegally!

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

Nonfederal Nonreserve — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 06:24:41 GMT

"The minute he presses the Red button to stop the printing press is the minute he effectively declares his own insolvency."

He's been printing money nonstop for 97 years. He won't stop until there's no more paper and ink.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

DD5 — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 06:15:15 GMT

"Even if he can pay his debts by cranking the printing presses? Even if he can forcibly exchange his counterfeit money for real goods and services?"

When banks and governments become heavily in debt that is not denominated in its own currency, the central bank is severely limited in baling out banks' and treasury's debt. This is how the entire Icelandic banking system together with its Central Bank became insolvent.

The Fed simply enjoys the privilege of having its dollars sort of accepted (in an informal manner) as the reserve currency of the world. This is already beginning to end right now.

Now let's take your hypothetical scenario of just printing money. Inflation won't do much good if it is simply used to finance and rollover more debt. It is like a dog trying to catch his tail. At some point he will have to stop inflating, even if it's after he destroys the monetary system. At that point, when ever it is, there will still remain the outstanding debt. The minute he presses the Red button to stop the printing press is the minute he effectively declares his own insolvency.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

Nonfederal Nonreserve — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 06:12:52 GMT

Well, he gives you no choice: you can give your stuff for his money or he will shoot you and take your stuff anyway. He has millions of soldiers under his command, and he gives them a share of the loot to maintain loyalty.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

Nick — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 06:09:58 GMT

You might be right but a lot stuff remains hidden these days. It's difficult to trust media.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

chloe732 — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 06:02:42 GMT

@ razerfish

The audit will never happen.

DD5 is right about "anger". There should be plenty of anger right now given what the Fed has done, and is doing, to us. But there is no anger. Rather, the voters look to Fed "policy makers" to guide us through these "rough times" cause by "greed" and "lack of regulation".

No competing currency will arise. Any threats will be dealt with.

No nation on Earth will allow its citizens to use commodity money. It causes government to lose power.

Legal tender laws will never be repealed. Why should Congress kill the very thing that feeds it?

Currency crisis: You believe the response will be a commodity money. The people will not react that way. They will demand more government services, government help. They will gladly surrender what remains of their liberty for the security of a government soup line.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

Caley McKibbin — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 05:58:26 GMT

Even if he can pay his debts by cranking the printing presses? Even if he can forcibly exchange his counterfeit money for real goods and services?

Not if nobody wants his paper anymore.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

Caley McKibbin — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 05:58:24 GMT

Even if he can pay his debts by cranking the printing presses? Even if he can forcibly exchange his counterfeit money for real goods and services?

Not if nobody wants his paper anymore.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

Nonfederal Nonreserve — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 05:33:36 GMT

Even if he can pay his debts by cranking the printing presses? Even if he can forcibly exchange his counterfeit money for real goods and services?

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

DD5 — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 05:25:45 GMT

"You haven't considered the value of the printing presses."

Do you really think I would not consider it?

I should have said insolvent, not bankrupt. Anybody can become effectively insolvent. No matter what the law says or how many printing presses he's got.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

Nonfederal Nonreserve — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 05:03:07 GMT

You haven't considered the value of the printing presses.

Re: Ending the Fed. How do you think it will happen?

DD5 — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 04:42:42 GMT

How can it go bankrupt? It can always print money or shuffle bits on its supercomputers.

http://mises.org/daily/3281