Arrogance of Ron Paul's Opponents...Is it a Signal?

Mises said that, "The most that can be attained with regard to reality is probability." 

When it comes to electing Ron Paul as the next President, I've noticed something very interesting from many of his opponents. Many of them are saying with absolute certainty that he has no chance of winning the election. They're not even leaving open the slightest possibility; and their statements are often peppered with a dose of arrogance.

I find this very encouraging.

Before I go any further, I'd like to say that I believe the opposite. I believe Ron Paul will be the next President of the United States.

So why am I encouraged by the arrogance of his opponents?

Well, I've learned from past experience that arrogance is a signal. It tends to appear towards the end of a major trend. For example, we've just gone through two major economic booms and busts, and towards the end of each boom we heard that it would never end. During the stock market bubble, we heard proclaimations that this was the "New Economy" and that stocks would go up forever....Dow 25,000....Dow 100,000...etc.

In the most recent housing bubble, I remember speaking with people in who work in the real estate market...I was trying to tell them that the bubble was fueled by artificial credit created by the the Federal Reserve and that this mania would not last....It seemed like my words were falling on deaf ears. They just didn't want to hear it. Housing prices were going to go up perpetually, and that was it!

There were a couple of lessons to be learned from these two situations:

Lesson #1 was that arrogance and the belief that there was no chance of the market returning to reality were present in both instances.

Lesson #2 was that despite these absolute proclaimations, the markets crashed anyway.

Which brings us to the current situation...arrogance is running rampant. Ron Paul's opponents aren't thinking in probabilities...They're using words like "can't" and "won't."

Experience shows that if the time for the ideas of Liberty has come, it will happen despite all of the absolute proclaimations to the contrary.

Is it time?

No one knows. I personally believe that the probabilities are there, but I can't say so with absolute certainty. There are an infinite number of variables involved and I understand that the possibility exists for Ron Paul not to be elected.  

However, in looking at the attitudes of those who believe the opposite, I'm very encouraged.