Ron Paul Demonstrates Unreliability of Political Polling
For those following the presidential campaign of Texas
Congressman Ron Paul there is little questioning his status as a top-tier
candidate. Evidence supporting this
conclusion is constantly growing, and after this past week’s events even the
main stream media is beginning to recognize what Paul’s supporters have known
for quite some time.
The historic week began for Paul this previous Monday, when
the ten-term Congressman raised over $4.3 million in contributions in a single
twenty-four hour period. The donations,
collected entirely through the campaign’s website, came from over 35,000
supporters, 17,000 of which donated to the campaign for the first time.
This display of support would then be echoed six days later at a rally held at Philadelphia’s
Independence Mall that drew over 5,000 supporters in a celebration centered on
Veteran’s Day and the candidate known for his uncompromising support of
Constitutional principles and the ideas of liberty upon which the country was
founded.
And these two astonishing events are only the most
recent accolades for Paul, who is commonly referred to as a long shot by
popular media outlets. His supporters
have, for example, formed over 1,100 meetup groups throughout the country with
over 61,000 volunteers. Paul’s YouTube
channel has over 36,000 subscribers, and his videos have generated an amazing 6
million views. And Paul’s website,
according to Alexa statistics, receives more hits than all of the other
candidates for President combined – in both parties.
All of this support, however, does not seem to translate to
success in the national telephone polls so commonly cited in discussions of
campaign success. And while Paul has
been climbing in these polls, he still stands around 5 or 6%, placing him fifth
behind candidates more frequently touted by the media.
But these figures might have more to do with the way
polls are taken than the actual amount of supporters Paul has amassed
throughout the country. The polls, for
example, generally exclude cellular telephone numbers, discounting the young
and the generally affluent segments of the population.
The polls also tend to focus solely on people who have voted
in previous party primaries, which would exclude moderates who don’t affiliate
themselves with a particular party, as well as those who haven’t voted in the
past or tend to vote independent.
There is no questioning at this point that Ron Paul is a
candidate with a legitimate chance of securing the Republican Party nomination,
regardless of his relatively low polling figures. To understand this one simply needs to look
beyond these figures to find the strongest example of grassroots support ever
demonstrated in US politics.
And for those unwilling to see the signs behind the polls, there
may be a big surprise awaiting them when the early primary states begin to
release data representing a Ron Paul popularity already visible to those
willing to look.