OK, if you are here then you probably know that the American empire will end fairly soon (I'd say 5 - 10 years tops). People are already starting to say how this century will be the century of Asia, which I do agree with, since the money is now in Asia. What about the rest of the world?
What do you see for the 21st century is my question. What problems do you foresee for the world and such. How will the geopolitical powers be divided amongst nations? Will there be wars? Which countries will survive? Which countries will break down?
Perhaps we should break it down by each continent.
I love this forum. So many intelligent people here!
"OK, if you are here then you probably know that the American empire will end fairly soon (I'd say 5 - 10 years tops)."
I don't know where you get this idea. I suspect a majority here would disagree with that analysis. I'm one of them anyway. I don't know (nor does anyone else) in what time frame such a disintegration may occur in any more than I know that an overvalued stock market is going to crash in the next 3-6 months. These things may happen in 6 months, a year, 10 years, or 50 years. All I can say is that it is unsustainable and cannot continue this way indefinitely. There are literally countless steps that could be taken to delay this process. The process could even possibly be reversed at some point thereby making the answer "never." Predictions like the one you are making are best left to psychic hotlines and tabloids, and are just as reliable. That doesn't mean it isn't "fun" to make them and speculate on this stuff. Just so long as your are aware that that is all it is, meaningless speculation for amusements sake.
Cheers!
the American empire will end fairly soon (I'd say 5 - 10 years tops).
I wouldn't say that's true at all. The higher debt may be in America for now since the U.S. government owes the Chinese government so much money, but if the government declares bankruptcy (doubt that will ever happen, but who knows), both governments are in debt. Plus, it is impossible for us to pay our debt back. It's too high. Monopolized land will have to be liquidated, I'm guessing, either to the Chinese government, who may very well sell them to private individuals, which is a good thing.
Keep in mind that US government is pretty large land holder. It has "couple" of nationalized corporations too. They will sell land/corporations when they will be short of money to pay debt back. Thats what governments in Central/East Europe do anyway when they think their debt is too high.
boniek,
Have you ever heard of a government selling its monopolized land in order to pay back debt instead of nationalized corporations? Just curious. And not for war reparations or anything.
After the American Dollar collapses, the main currency will be a coin minted by the IMF. The two main powers will be the EU and China. A war between Iran (and the other Muslim nations by proxy), will decimate the middle east. Global governance. The usual.
Project yourself back to 1910 and poll views on the 20th century. Accept the futility of your exercise.
Z.
Polish government sells its land. It is very slow process due to massive regulations, but still it does happen. The way I see it ex-communist countries are going slowly in more mercantilist direction.
I disagree that his will be Asia’s century: it will be the century of the city-state. In the face of crisis in the west, it will not take much for a city like Hamburg to see that, with GDP per capita levels at least twice that of the whole country, they could easily finance the welfare state they like if they only taxed themselves and did not subsidize the whole country. More power to city-states, globally, is what I expect. That of course will mean more freedom for everyone.
I'm not so sure that America is doomed, though I can see why many hold such a position, and I also don't buy into the alleged inevitable socioeconomic dominance of Asian nations, especially China. It's true that northeast Asians have superior intellects, but when it comes to social institutions, they still lag far behind the west. Furthermore, China's economic system is entirely defunct; it has bigger and more profound structural problems than the U.S. The problem with Asia, in my opinion, has always been its philosophy (though western philosophy, for about 150 years now, is just as bad).
"If we wish to preserve a free society, it is essential that we recognize that the desirability of a particular object is not sufficient justification for the use of coercion."
Hm, I am actually surprised by some of the responses that I saw here - not what I expected. Here is my take on the 21st century:
For Asia:
I truly believe that this will be the century of Asia. Their markets are much more dynamic than the west, and people over there work countless hours because they want better lives. If you look around you, most of the stuff we own is made in Asia. Asia is where the money is now, the biggest creditor nations are in Asia. I really like China, and it's the only country that I can see will have immense geopolitical power in the 21st century. Although the country is far from perfect (water problems, for example), the Chinese people are perhaps the best capitalists in the world today. Along with the rest of Asia, they have what it takes to live better lives. Japan has huge internal debts with declining population, I can only see Japan declining - and in addition that they don't like immigrants. India is also another black horse, I have met some brilliant Indian people, a country with tremendous brain power, although India consists of vast cultural differences. They are 300 spoken languages in India, 30 official languages, when their prime minister speaks in New Delhi, not all of India can understand him. India's infrastructure is also somewhat lacking, compares to China. Southeast Asian nations are also moving in the right direction.
For the US:
I feel that the United States will soon break down due to financial reasons (within 5 years). I highly doubt that foreigners will continue to lend us more money. I believe that all of us here are well aware of the Bond bubble, which has yet to burst. The looming currency crisis will too take place. Politicians here are making mistakes after mistakes. How exactly will the government keep its promise to support 80 million baby boomers (that's 75 trillion dollars), along with their massive fiscal deficits, truly amazes me. All empires end one day, and the day of reckoning is coming. When the next problem comes along, what else is left to be done? Disintegration is probably in the cards, and most Americans will probably run to Canada. The dollar will most likely not survive.
For Europe:
I really cannot see how the EU will survive, because of their differences in fiscal policies. Germany has seen rising living costs, and they want the Deutsch mark back! I don't think the Euro will survive either. You can also look at how their government budgets are redlining everywhere, (look at the MED club). Along with Japan, Europe has declining population and no positive outlook for immigrations, either. Most likely, the EU will break down in 10-15 years, maybe sooner.
For Africa:
Africa has natural resources, which is great if you want to do business with China and other Asian nations where they are resources starved. I would invest in certain countries in Africa. I believe 21st century will prove to be a much better time for the African nations.
For South America:
I don't know much about South America, but I feel that Brazil is another great country on the horizon. Businesses are booming over there. Anyone here invested in Brazilian companies? Vale is a good company to look into.
For the world:
I can also see social unrests everywhere, well, it has already started in some countries like Greece and Iceland. Peak oil, currency war, new world currency, and possibly another war...?
Of course, all of this is just pure speculation on my part. Tell me what you think!
21st century will see zero change in Western Hegemony.
Let's face it - the western world has far more stable currency than regularly inflated Third World currency, has a giant body of property rights accumulated over centuries, has the largest financial institutions, has strong internal peace and security, has non-state-owned banks that aren't perpetually bankrupt like Chinese banks, has far more business freedom, has far more convenient and fair laws, and has a more strongly established international division of labour.
By comparison, many Third World nations still have people who sell domestically and buy domestically. Their poor property rights, their lacking laws, and their devalued currencies show up in the fact that they are not able to sell to the best possible international bidders and are not able to buy from the best possible international offerers.
This is true for Russia, Brazil, and China. These three were "emerging" 100 years ago, were "emerging" 50 years ago, and are still "emerging" now. At least there is still hope for them. People in 1960s had predicted that the African continent would rule the world with its resources. Laughable.
After the American Dollar collapses, the main currency will be a coin minted by the IMF. The two main powers will be the EU and China. A war between Iran (and the other Muslim nations by proxy), will decimate the middle east. Global governance. The usual. 1. The EU has not got the potential to be a superpower. The Euro will fail as a currency and the EU may begin disintegrating. Economic policies have rarely been getting better, usually getting worse. 2. China is still a poor country. Some argue it has a massive unsustainable bubble that has yet to pop. When it does, I wonder if the communist party will be able to retain their hold. In order to do so, they may have to bring back the totalitarianism of decades past. 3. If you mean to say that in case of war with Iran other muslim countries would join in, it is rather doubtful. The Iranians are Shi'a, a group surrounded by (with the exception of Iraq) majority Sunni countries. From what I can tell they don't exactly love each other. | Post Points: 5
1. The EU has not got the potential to be a superpower. The Euro will fail as a currency and the EU may begin disintegrating. Economic policies have rarely been getting better, usually getting worse.
2. China is still a poor country. Some argue it has a massive unsustainable bubble that has yet to pop. When it does, I wonder if the communist party will be able to retain their hold. In order to do so, they may have to bring back the totalitarianism of decades past.
3. If you mean to say that in case of war with Iran other muslim countries would join in, it is rather doubtful. The Iranians are Shi'a, a group surrounded by (with the exception of Iraq) majority Sunni countries. From what I can tell they don't exactly love each other.
Nobody of us is a seer: if any were he would be spending his time betting on sports events and trading commodities to make a huge profit. Or at least that's what i would do.
The leit-motif of the early XXI century will surely be the US Empire and its evolution. While I completely agree it's doomed to fail, I still think it will take quite a lot of time. We can learn a lot from the Roman Empire: it's decline started with Marcus Aurelius death in 180 but the last Emperor of the West wasn't deposed until 476. The Eastern Empire lasted to 1453, its citizens still proudly calling themselves Romaioi, Romans, despite not being able to speak a word of Latin. The US Empire won't take as long to unravel but it will surely be quite a long time. The decline has already started when the US leadership refused to adapt to the end of the Cold War and went frantically searching for new hobgoblins to fight. How a superpower armed with thousands of nuclear warheads was replaced by guerrillas armed with improvised weapons as the biggest threat to the "free world" will puzzle historians and cultural anthropologists for centuries to come. And just like the Roman Empire spent itself into oblivion not to hire soldiers and buy swords but to keep its plebs bamboozled so the US is spending itself into oblivion to keep its citizens happy with donatives.
Many believe that for a superpower to vanquish you need a new superpower to raise. Again Roman history proves this is not the case: Europe proper fractured in a myriad of chiefdoms and kingdoms, no new hegemon power rose again until Charlemagne centuries later. In the East power was split between Byzantium and Persia which squandered their strength fighting each other and so throwing the gates open to the meteroric rise of Islam.
Another pressing issue for the early XXI century will be the fate of Europe. Europe has tons of issues. First of all is its inhability to maintain the level of public spending its peoples have been accustomed to which is bound to brew even more troubles. The reasons are many and have all been discussed in this forum many times. Linked to this is unchecked immigration by people bearing alien cultures, people which was let in in the childish belief they would just work for pennies and pay their taxes to keep Europeans into bread and butter. Now these immigrants are becoming a serious source of concern and as the (real) economy will keep on contracting will surely add to troubles: countries like Italy and Germany have more than 8% of their workforce unemployed, yet they are still letting people in by the hundreds of thousand, people that will swarm to most overpopulated areas... even an idiot can see this is the recipe for big troubles. Unless Europe does something fast (and by fast I mean five years at the utmost) it's doomed to become even more irrilevant as it is today. But judging how selfish and childish my compatriots are I am not holding my breath. Oh, well there's always Japan to move to...
Good one, Kakugo. This is why i like when you comment on my posts.
Does anyone else here besides me foresee global food and water crisis? I feel that there's a major squeeze in agriculture coming fairly soon and it will last for decades. Comment on this?
Guys, how can there bee a squeeze on agriculture if the west still finds it necessary to institute agricultural support programs? The world is over not under producing foodstuffs.
Merlin: Guys, how can there bee a squeeze on agriculture if the west still finds it necessary to institute agricultural support programs? The world is over not under producing foodstuffs. Good one. The EU is actually paying ranchers to slaughter dairy cattle and farmers to crush oranges to "keep prices from falling too much". Japan is instituting even more subsidies for rice farmers: despite extremely high tariffs rice originating from Thailand and the US is so cheap it's becoming "a source of major concern" for what's the second most subsidized agriculture in the world relative to GDP. The big problem with agriculture is actually too much government meddling causing price distortions on a scale rarely seen before. And the industry itself is actually asking for those distortions in the first place since they believe to be "underpaid" for their products. Then the food industry will complain prices are too high... well you know the drill. Together we go unsung... together we go down with our people | Post Points: 20
Plus, everything (commodities) is priced in dollars. We have already seen the food shortages in 2007 - 2008 in third world nations when the dollar fallen. What would happen if the US dollar index falls dramatically again?
Kakugo, do you agree with my views on Asia? Please comment on Asia. I like Asia - let's all move there!!
Also, what about shortages of fresh water around the globe? Comment on this, too, please!
I don't believe the American empire will end that soon, it also depends on your definition of "end". It will certainly be getting worse over the years and once hyperinflation kicks in (bond bubble) it will be devastating to Americans. However, as soon as that happens and people hopefully realize what caused it we will start turning back into a production state, be forced to recall our world empire and the recovery can begin. That process could take years as well and that's where I agree Asia will do well. They are already at the level of production we would need to be to recover out of our service/consumer nation form.
I just started getting into Austrian Economics this year so I wish I could get more into detail but I don't feel I have enough knowledge on the topic yet to make an accurate foresight into the global condition over time. But from what I've learned I'd say those countries heavy in entitlements or those with high inflation will be in the worst positions over the coming years. I would guess USA, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Germany, UK and Ireland are not going to do too well. I would certainly not invest any of my money in any of these countries.
Safer bets to me are: China, India, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and maybe a few less entitlement-heavy European countries like Switzerland.
This list is not exhaustive and I am still fairly new at all of this so please anyone feel free to correct me if I have misspoken :)
I really think all of us here, besides me, is still very optimistic - too optimistic. From what I can see, when empires break down, they usually try to take other people down with them. Romans ransacked all across the land, the British killed a bunch of Indians, and the list goes on. There is of course an exception, the Soviet Union (peaceful withdrawal), thanks to Gorbachev. I can already see how the US government will blame other people and bring this nation to war as a last ditch effort to regain world supremacy. I agree that the US should have reformed their foreign policies after the Cold War was over, but unfortunately for us, our government created new monsters for us to fight.
Let's just hope it doesn't go that far.
@rosstaylor. If that happens, In this day and age where I believe many American soldiers look at their pay more than their objective in the military I hope that when many of these soldiers realize the US is sinking and the Government has nothing valuable to offer, they will not follow orders. As for private military contractors.
2013 - Hyperinflation ensues in all first-world countries simultaneously. Riots ensue. To quell them the US government nukes Beijing, New York City, Los Angeles, London, Moscow, Paris, and Tokyo simultaneously (with state officials being given the warning and taking shelter beforehand.) Martial Law is declared elsewhere. A world coalition Government forms and declares worldwide martial law. Private property is abolished.
2020 - All human beings are outfitted with a chip in their brains used for thought monitoring, information dispersal, and identification. To save resources on policing, the chip kills any person who has any feelings of guilt. The world population drops massively instantly. Breeding programs are forced onto survivors.
2040 - All remnants of emotion and empathy have been stamped out of the human race by (un)natural selection due to the GUILT project. The chips are enhanced to allow telepathic communication and commands, effectively turning all of humanity into a giant superorganism. The one-mind names itself Dyeus and uses its new superintellect to build an army to take over the universe.
2070 - All physical matter in the universe is effectively destroyed as Dyeus unbinds all the protons and neutrons and forms all the quarks into himself, making him essentially one giant composite particle. Dyeus continues to persist for the rest of eternity, a master of nothing.
I wonder how well that would sell as a movie script. Maybe if you include some nudity? lol
I can actually see this happening. Martial law is actually now enforceable in the US, look up John Warner Defense Authorization Act of 2007. Yes, there will be worldwide inflation because many central banks in the world are now printing astronomical amount of money, and I believe this is probably only time in world history that everyone is doing it - thanks to Keynes. I hope everyone will burn Keynes' books, we'll all have a Freedom Bonfire one day, us Austrians. I'll pay for the matches. Bring beef and Belgian beer.
Let's just hope our cool heads will prevail.
There's no way the United States will disintegrate within 10 years. There's way too many power players and money involved. Still, I fully expect the economy to go through another recession around 2012 and then maybe a depression in the near future. It's going to get ugly before it gets better, but if anything, I expect the United States to see a large reduction in global influence and power.
The Russians didn't think that their Soviet Empire would disintegrate so quickly either. There are way too much liabilities on the country's balance sheet, and from the looks from it, they are not planning to do anything in the near future. These problems will come and hit us the face before we know it.
It's going to get ugly before it gets better
We won't get better unless we stop stimulating the economy and spending like there's no tomorrow. The real question you have to ask is how long will the world keep the US dollar as a world reserve currency. The Russian and Chinese are already discussing what to replace the dollar with, along with some other countries. Although, as of right now, there is no good alternative. Maybe within 5 years time is much more accurate, I think.