dang....
its actually at $43.
will it goto $50 an ounce?
just awesome... broke the 30 EUR today..
Is 50 on the way to 100$ ?
Most likely, but perhaps not before a major correction.
To paraphrase Marc Faber: We're all doomed, but that doesn't mean that we can't make money in the process. Rabbi Lapin: "Let's make bricks!" Stephan Kinsella: "Say you and I both want to make a German chocolate cake."
What you are witnessing right now is yet another demonstration that speculators (in the modern sense) are a fickle lot. The announcement by Moody's that the outlook for US Treasury Bonds is negative was enough to send everybody into a panic. Chinese rating agencies had already degraded them and gave a negative outlook last year but what do they know? And it will be the same with oil and agricultural commodities. Unless Bernanke implements QE3 damn right now expect a (slight) correction as soon as the aforementioned speculators find out the world won't end tomorrow.
It's beyond a simple outlook and speculation.
The credit rating of the US Government is about to take a hit in the not too distant future. S&P just initiated the first warning shot by rating them from stable to negative.
Once other rating entities follow suit, it won't be long before investors look for a way out of the dollar while the getting is good.
There's already pressure to convert to a new reserve currency. If the major economic powers choose to convert, then the dollar is on it's way to a rapid decline in value.
The uncertainty is the willingness of the major economic powers to move in a new direction.
Silver is volatile as it is, but it was undervalued to begin with.
So what did Mises say about the Crack-up Boom again?
Today's spike doesn't look that great:
Is that not a chart on gold? Where's the chart on silver?
Oops. My bad.
Anyone else think it'll break through fifty before having a correction? I'm debating selling some of my investment now and rebuy once the price has corrected itself a bit.
If it does correct before going to $50, then where the peak be? 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49?
Err, why do we think there will be a correction?
"Most likely, but perhaps not before a major correction."
What do you mean, correction? Major increase or decrease in price?
Guys, I hope you're doing this with "play"-sized portions of your assets. Usually, the knowledge that affects us the most is the one that we don't even know we're lacking (i.e. the unknown unknown).
Really? Can I take my assets out of the game? Where do I have to put them to be safe?
Sieben: Err, why do we think there will be a correction?
Because it's gone up a lot and market sentiment.
limitgov: "Most likely, but perhaps not before a major correction." What do you mean, correction? Major increase or decrease in price?
Decrease. I'm not sure why something correct upward immediately after having gone upward.
Daniel Muffinburg:Because it's gone up a lot and market sentiment.
Daniel Muffinburg:Because it's gone up a lot and market sentiment. Why has the expectation of a correction not affected its current price?
It's an art. :p
Sieben: Daniel Muffinburg:Because it's gone up a lot and market sentiment. Why has the expectation of a correction not affected its current price?
Because if everyone expected a correction, then the price would go down because people would be shorting, selling, and not buying. You're not a contrarian if everyone else is too.
So there is no general expectation of a correction. So what did you mean about market sentiment?
Ohhhh. I meant that the current general market sentiment is that the price woud go higher.
A correction won't take it down more than 30%, I say buy.
I like that kind of correction.
Liquidity has been driving everything upwards - metals, commodities, oil, and stocks. I'll be a contrarian here and say we will have a big nasty correction sometimes soon. Silver's price has been historically volatile. So I would not be surprised at a 40-50 percent correction. Many (particulary libertarians) thought the world would end back in 1980 when gold and silver were going parabolic. They were screaming imminent hyperinflation, worthless dollar, Great Depression II, etc. Nasty surprise for those banking on doomsday. Those who invested in silver at the Jan 80 top, lost 90 percent of their money just a few short years later. And adjusted for inflation, they would still be down more than 50 percent.
Silver has gone up around 145% over the past year. A 40-50 percent drop wouldn't be a big deal.
While you can invest in gold and silver, and maybe make some money, it's still a risky proposition. These commodities are most useful if the value of fiat currencies decline and people end up losing confidence in the system, which could cause them to want gold or silver. In this sense, gold and silver have become insurance against financial collapse rather than investments. So those who bought gold and silver, at reasonable prices in the 70's and 80's, should continue to hold onto these long term insurance items until there's a real need to cash in. I would expect them to pass these assets down to the children and grandchildren over time. This isn't a gloom and doom thing, it's a long term strategy of protecting yourself from disaster down the road. Having 50% of your wealth tied into these assets is not very smart given the lost opportunity cost associated with holding them. Somewhere in the 10% range would be more reasonable.
This might very well be the correction we've been waiting for. I wonder if 20$/ounce silver is too optimistic for a drop.
Pardon the double post.
Anyone else laughing at seeing the prices for precious metals surging up and down for the past few hours?
The swings are ridiculous.
Considering that the price of silver 10 years ago was about $5 (according to goldprice.org), I think one can ride the wave a little longer. I'm no expert, but it seems that the easing will continue and the commodity prices will keep climbing.
Daniel Muffinburg:The swings are ridiculous.
I been reading news about it all day. Commodity markets were effed up today. Thanks Osama!
Osama bin shortin':(
None of y'all are buying this dip?
The market is trolling. The only way the market's reaction could be reasonable is if they think we're going to end the war and cut a bunch of spending. More likely, this will help Obama get re-elected in 2012. Anyone with a brain knows that's BAD for the dollar, so we'll just have to wait. Like I said, the marginal sellers are just a bunch of chic liberals.
So, you're buying?
I held a position in SLV from about $ all the way up to monday, i sold it all at 44.50, i waiting for a pull back to about about 33-35 before i get back in.
$16*
Daniel Muffinburg:So, you're buying?
I sold 70% of my silver holdings on April 28th. I almost held out for another week hoping it would hit $50 before the correction, but I decided to err on the side of caution. I had purchased the majority of my silver early 2008, so I made out quite nicely. I'll probably be buying silver again in about a month or so because I am optimistic for the return of $30 silver in the next several weeks; however, my realistic side will probably be buying the moment it hits $35.
It must be nice to have cash right now.