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Why Ron Paul WILL win in NH

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Freedom4Me73986 Posted: Fri, Jan 6 2012 10:36 PM

OK so a lot of people have pointed out that Romney is in the clear lead in NH with nearly half the vote. Here's the thing these people don't seem to realize: the percentages are only from polled REGISTERED REPUBLICANS. When you take into consideration that nearly half of NH voters are registered independent, you'll start to see why it's very possible that Dr. Paul could win in NH. Dr. Paul is huge with independents, and since there's so much at stake in this election it's easy to see why they'd come out and vote for him.

How about this: if Dr. Paul wins in NH, you consider moving there. If he loses I promise never to post another NH or FSP-related topic on here again. Challenge accepted?

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gocrew replied on Fri, Jan 6 2012 10:59 PM

I was big into that theory four years ago. The polls weren't accurate because young people have a tendency to go without land lines and weren't being called; only likely voters were being polled and Ron Paul was going to bring in a ton of first time voters; only Republicans were being polled... well, experience suggests that the polls are probably close to the truth.

Barring a very unexpected surge at the last minute, Ron Paul is going to finish second or third in NH, very distant from Romney at the top.

If I am going to move, it will be out of the country. And I'm not bothered by you posting FSP stuff here. Challenge not accepted.

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Not in a numerical sense.

"People kill each other for prophetic certainties, hardly for falsifiable hypotheses." - Peter Berger
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Something like 48% of NH's voters are registered independents. Independents NEVER get polled. All the polls which put Romney at 43% are only polling registered republicans. That means independents are going to be the ones electing Dr. Paul. Everywhere I go in NH all I see are signs for Dr. Paul. Manchester (the largest city) is full of free staters and loyal Paul supporters. They obviously aren't polled but I know for a fact they will turn up for the vote on Tuesday.

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Also, why does it seem that everyone on here doesn't want Dr. Paul to win in NH? Why write his own fate?

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I'll stay optimistic with you and do what I can to support Ron Paul, until the end and even if the end is not the end the end I wanted, I will continue on, but under absolutely no circumstance will I ever move to New Hampshire. (Just kidding I've never been there. I heard you have a lot of granite) I guess we can only speculate, but I hope your on to something.

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I'll stay optimistic with you and do what I can to support Ron Paul, until the end and even if the end is not the end the end I wanted, I will continue on, but under absolutely no circumstance will I ever move to New Hampshire. (Just kidding I've never been there. I heard you have a lot of granite) I guess we can only speculate, but I hope your on to something.

The polls have been wrong before and I'm sure this primary is no exception. 

Come to NH. Yes NH has some problems, but in general you'll feel a lot freer. The victimless crime laws NH does have are constantly being challenged and I'm sure most of them will be off the books sometime soon. There's enough libertarians in political office to make a difference.

But my point is Dr. Paul still has a chance to win NH. In fact his chances are huge. All the libertarians I know in NH are active in some way. They'll help get out the vote.

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http://www.ronpaul.com/2012-01-05/ron-paul-surges-to-24-in-new-hampshire-could-beat-romney/

 

Ron Paul Surges to 24% in New Hampshire, Could Beat Romney in Last-Minute Push

 

Ron Paul Surging in New Hampshire Following Top-Tier Finish in Iowa

New survey shows Paul with double the poll numbers of the third place candidate, solidifying Paul’s position as the ‘Anti-Romney’

Ron Paul is in second place in the key early voting state of New Hampshire with a remarkable 24% of the vote, according to a new Washington Times/Zogby Analytics Poll [crosstabs].

The poll, taken after the Iowa Caucuses, also shows Rick Santorum “leaping” to 11% (earning him a predictable Washington Times headline that ignores Paul’s surge), Newt Gingrich languishing at 9%, Jon Huntsman stagnating at 8% and Rick Perry barely registering at 1%.

“On the heels of his close third place finish at the Iowa Caucus, Ron Paul is polling a strong second place in New Hampshire. From here on out, it is a two-man race between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney given that one of the tickets out of Iowa was a dead-end due to Rick Santorum’s glaring lack of viability,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton.

“There are only two campaigns that have the resources and infrastructure to win the Republican nomination – and one of those organizations belongs to Ron Paul,” added Mr. Benton.

The poll of 498 likely primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points and ten percent undecided, showing Dr. Paul with the potential to catch and surpass Mitt Romney and win the Granite State.

 

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Freedom4Me73986:
How about this: if Dr. Paul wins in NH, you consider moving there. If he loses I promise never to post another NH or FSP-related topic on here again. Challenge accepted?

Yes, I accept your challenge.

 

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gocrew replied on Sat, Jan 7 2012 9:34 AM

Freedom4Me73986:
Something like 48% of NH's voters are registered independents. Independents NEVER get polled. All the polls which put Romney at 43% are only polling registered republicans. That means independents are going to be the ones electing Dr. Paul. Everywhere I go in NH all I see are signs for Dr. Paul. Manchester (the largest city) is full of free staters and loyal Paul supporters. They obviously aren't polled but I know for a fact they will turn up for the vote on Tuesday.

Why did I bother to make the last post if you weren't even going to read it.

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gocrew replied on Sat, Jan 7 2012 9:35 AM

Freedom4Me73986:
Also, why does it seem that everyone on here doesn't want Dr. Paul to win in NH? Why write his own fate?

It says a lot about your state of mind that you could mistake an attempt at a dispassionate analysis for lack of desire to see Dr. Paul win.

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Freedom4Me73986:
How about this: if Dr. Paul wins in NH, you consider moving there. If he loses I promise never to post another NH or FSP-related topic on here again. Challenge accepted?

Yes, I accept your challenge.

OK but realize the polls have been way wrong before. In 2008 all the polls showed Obomber having a huge lead over Hillary in NH. Night of the primary Hillary wins. I'm certain the same thing will happen w/ Dr. Paul and Romney.

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I'll make you a $10,000 bet that Romney wins New Hampshire.

 

Seriously, I'd LOVE it if Paul won, but I can't see it happening. If it did it would be groundbreaking, though.

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Seriously, I'd LOVE it if Paul won, but I can't see it happening. If it did it would be groundbreaking, though.

Dr. Paul's numbers are going up in NH every day. Now we wait and see.

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Do you plan on campaigning and bringing out everyone? From Canada I can't effect things much, but you might.

 

Anyhow, as much as I love Ron Paul, I worry that a lot of his supporters are becoming a sort of cult of personality that doesn't give a shit about his Libertarian ideals and will abandon the ideas he's promoting the instant he ceases to be relevant again. He's done more for the cause of freedom in ten years than many have done in their lifetimes, but it would be a waste if he were just a libertarian Ayn Rand who creates a base of support that dissapates into the little fascist groupings that the State promotes (Liberals, conservatives, etc). It needs to be far more decentralized, as I don't see any big name Libertarians out there besides Paul and MAYBE Peter Schiff.

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Jargon replied on Sun, Jan 8 2012 7:40 PM

Freedom4Me73986:

I'll stay optimistic with you and do what I can to support Ron Paul, until the end and even if the end is not the end the end I wanted, I will continue on, but under absolutely no circumstance will I ever move to New Hampshire. (Just kidding I've never been there. I heard you have a lot of granite) I guess we can only speculate, but I hope your on to something.

The polls have been wrong before and I'm sure this primary is no exception. 

Come to NH. Yes NH has some problems, but in general you'll feel a lot freer. The victimless crime laws NH does have are constantly being challenged and I'm sure most of them will be off the books sometime soon. There's enough libertarians in political office to make a difference.

But my point is Dr. Paul still has a chance to win NH. In fact his chances are huge. All the libertarians I know in NH are active in some way. They'll help get out the vote.

 

got a three hundred and sixty dollar ticket for speeding today  in new hampshire. sure didnt feel like freedom to me.

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z1235 replied on Sun, Jan 8 2012 8:02 PM

Jargon:

got a three hundred and sixty dollar ticket for speeding today  in new hampshire. sure didnt feel like freedom to me.

What makes you think that, in a free society, the owner of the road wouldn't penalize you for breaking his rules on his property (speeding)?

 

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got a three hundred and sixty dollar ticket for speeding today  in new hampshire. sure didnt feel like freedom to me.

Where were you? City or country?

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z1235:
What makes you think that, in a free society, the owner of the road wouldn't penalize you for breaking his rules on his property (speeding)?

Such a penalty as paying a fine would require prior contractual agreement, would it not? The only penalty not requiring such would be eviction, AFAICT.

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Jargon replied on Sun, Jan 8 2012 8:50 PM

Freedom4Me73986:

got a three hundred and sixty dollar ticket for speeding today  in new hampshire. sure didnt feel like freedom to me.

Where were you? City or country?

Five miles out of Warner

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Jargon replied on Sun, Jan 8 2012 8:53 PM

z1235:

Jargon:

got a three hundred and sixty dollar ticket for speeding today  in new hampshire. sure didnt feel like freedom to me.

What makes you think that, in a free society, the owner of the road wouldn't penalize you for breaking his rules on his property (speeding)?

A) The speed limits derive out of the statist notion of "protecting you from yourself"

B) I could probably drive on limit-free roads, since it is not established yet if speed limits are actually conducive to safety

C) I have no choice but to pay the thug

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Freedom4Me73986:

got a three hundred and sixty dollar ticket for speeding today  in new hampshire. sure didnt feel like freedom to me.

Where were you? City or country?

Five miles out of Warner

K. Were you at the primary events today? That could have been why the police were worse then they usually are.

 

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Your posts don't bother me and he won't win. At the pace he's going (4% per month increase) he'd need another 3 months to get even close to Romney. Yes, statistics and linear approximations don't work that way, but it looks bleak right now. Doesn't mean we should give up, that is. We should fight ever harder. Just saying not to be disappointed when he comes in 2nd, down 20% from Romney.

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44% of NH voters are undecided. This could be HUGE for Dr. Paul.

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It could also be huge for Huntsman.

We'll see what the polls are in 24 hours, but I'd be open to the idea that Paul may even come in third. Probably - and hopefully - not, but who knows what could happen on Tuesday.

"People kill each other for prophetic certainties, hardly for falsifiable hypotheses." - Peter Berger
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Why Huntsman?

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Please note: I'm somewhat playing Devil's Advocate here.

Jargon:
A) The speed limits derive out of the statist notion of "protecting you from yourself"

One could argue that driving at a much higher speed relative to other drivers can pose a threat to them. Something of an analogy here could be a person swinging around an axe in a public place.

Jargon:
B) I could probably drive on limit-free roads, since it is not established yet if speed limits are actually conducive to safety

My understanding is that roads are only rated up to a certain speed. Beyond that speed, there's increased risk of losing control of one's vehicle and possible colliding with other vehicles. Of course, speed limits on government roads are typically kept lower than this rating, so the local/state government in question can extract more revenue in the form of speeding tickets.

Jargon:
C) I have no choice but to pay the thug

You can (i.e. you are physically able to) refuse to pay him. However, that would likely lead to your driver's license being suspending (if it's a New Hampshire driver's license) and/or a warrant put out for your arrest.

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44% undecided voters means that they could all go with Romney because they decide he is the "most electable." He's the "safest" candidate. Unless Romney gets slammed hard or some new scandal comes out where some lady accuses him of cheating, he'll win by a comfortable margin. My current prediction is he will win by 15%

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44% undecided voters means that they could all go with Romney because they decide he is the "most electable." He's the "safest" candidate. Unless Romney gets slammed hard or some new scandal comes out where some lady accuses him of cheating, he'll win by a comfortable margin. My current prediction is he will win by 15%

So is Romney reaching out to undecideds the way Dr. Paul is? Dr. Paul has 17% of the NH vote last time I checked. Romney's numbers are going down. Huntsman is doing better but he's still behind Dr. Paul.

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Andrew replied on Mon, Jan 9 2012 4:42 PM

I know how you feel, like the first person who replied to you, I thought Ron Paul would do much better in 2008 due to the landline theory.  I've found, however, polls, especially when they are aggregated like at Real Clear Politics, are usually very accurate.  Real Clear Politics has only LV - likely votes, not registered voters, listed on their polls right now, and the latest poll shows Mitt ahead by 13.  I would be surprised, however, if RP didn't come in at at least 2nd place. 

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So is Romney reaching out to undecideds the way Dr. Paul is?

He doesn't need to. They know he's the "safe", moderate candidate.

Romney's numbers are going down
Yes, and at this rate he will be low enough for Paul to maybe have a chance in a month.
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Cortes replied on Mon, Jan 9 2012 5:50 PM

Devil's advocate here: Hunts KetchupMan could very well narrowly edge out RP. I am naturally cynical about this sort of thing. Never discount the idiot vote who are surgically glued to their televisions.

 

BUT

 

Paul will still gain solid delegates to stay on top so the straw poll pop vote is irrelevant.

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Nope, Hunstman stands no chance. He's been at it for weeks and he hasn't gained much.

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Cortes replied on Mon, Jan 9 2012 6:39 PM

CNN is whoring the hell out of him though.

 

Desperate. SMH

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The MSM will never let Dr. Paul have his day. Ever.

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