Im taking a stab at this... since in the mainstream news there have been lots of reports of ahmadinejad dropping gas on citizens. Exactly the same as iraq.
Im sure that a war against syria will trigger a war with iran. However im not sure if china and russia will be stupid enough to be dragged into this mess.
We will lose create a mess as in iraq and afghanistan again, and trillions more of debt (whats the word after trillion?).
Iranian war will probably drag on even longer and messier, since they are bigger than iraq and have much different terrain than just desert..
There may or may not be a draft (i lean towards one).. and any terrorist sleeper cells may be activated.
Im just guessing here. Im really bad at geopolitical theory.
Any thoughts?
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since in the mainstream news there have been lots of reports of ahmadinejad dropping gas on citizens. Exactly the same as iraq.
(whats the word after trillion?)
Recently heard the theory that Israel and the US are contributing to destabilization of various nations, as destabilized countries mainly turn focus internal, and Israel is likely the benefit thereby.
Meh, just a theory I suppose.
I do doubt war (US war, or Israel?) with Syria would drag in Iran tho.
Anemone, that rumor may be more substantiated than you think. Just look at Egypt: it looks like their troubles are only just beginning. As long as Egyptians are busy fighting each other they cannot focus as much as they'd like on international issues such as the plight of the Palestinians or defusing the Syrian crisis. Or consider Iraq: the Kurdish regions are more or less autonomous now while the rest of country is still prey to chaos. We'd be fools to think the Israeli leadership doesn't approve of this situation: both countries are their traditional enemies and both countries are now torn by internal strife and have become much less threatening from a military point of view (remember Egypt completely depends on the US to maintain its huge and unwieldy military: if the US cut ammo and spares supplies and tech support citing "human right concerns" or whatever excuse all those tanks and aircraft become useless).
Syria however is a different case. Assad II, while not exactly beloved by his people, is seen as better than his father and much better than a US-imposed military strongman or a Saudi-financed religious extremist. Also, again in contrast with his father, he seems to be much less concerned with the decrepit idea of Pan-Arabism and was (and still is) very careful to avoid antagonizing Israel. It's well known Israel has been harboring designs on Syria since the '70s at least. While taking direct control of the country is out of the question, it's well known Israel would like a more "amenable" government in Damascus. By amenable I mean "friend of Israel without going public about it", like the governments of Kuwait, Bahrain and especially Oman are. Need proof? Without making a fuss about it Oman has provided facilities to Israel's "second strike capability", meaning nuclear armed submarines.
Of course there's a fly in the ointment. The situation in Syria is presently so chaotic nobody has a clear idea on which side the insurgents are. While clearly financed by sundry Gulf States there doesn't appear to be a leading personality among them. In Iraq we can identify Shia, Sunni and Kurdish factions and leader, in Libya various clans and warlords have been identified but the Free Syrian Army remains a mystery.
Very interesting, Kakugo. I'm pretty sure it's because of posts like the one above that a few of us wanted you to start a blog. Wait, you've got a blog now, right?
Or consider Iraq: the Kurdish regions are more or less autonomous now while the rest of country is still prey to chaos.
Is this really the case? Any links? As far as I knew the Kurds were still vying for their own territory and Iraq, Syria, and Turkey weren't having any of it.
By amenable I mean "friend of Israel without going public about it", like the governments of Kuwait, Bahrain and especially Oman are. Need proof? Without making a fuss about it Oman has provided facilities to Israel's "second strike capability", meaning nuclear armed submarines.
Not to mention Saudi Arabia's agreement to allow Israel to use its airspace in the event of conflict.
In Iraq we can identify Shia, Sunni and Kurdish factions and leader, in Libya various clans and warlords have been identified but the Free Syrian Army remains a mystery.
We didn't identify anyone in Libya. The factions there were all supported by NATO. The factions also used NATO resources to bomb each other. Hillary Clinton said a few days ago that next week the US will be "recognizing" the FSA as the legitimate opposition and declaring another faction as a terrorist network based on the al-Qaeda in Iraq. I think when we do that, then Assad will gas them (or at least the Western forces will say that he has.
We need to pay mind to the fact that Syria never signed the chemical weapons ban treaty (only a handful of countries didn't). There were many commentators that said in 2003/4 that Iraq sold or stored their WMDs (chem/bio) in Syria, so do not be surprised to hear things like that in the near future.
You see, if the US recognizes this faction then Assad will not be gassing his own people. He will be gassing a US backed foreign paramilitary organization.
And yes, it appears that Syria is the last domino before Iran is entirely isolated from regional allies. This will signal the closing of the window that Bibi refers to. Lebanon stopped recognizing Assad (they are allies! - meaning anti-Israeli/American forces their won't go on alert in Lebanon) and I doubt Iran will have the guts to try to stop NATO and the US especially since they have allowed the occupation of its direct easterly and most westerly nations for over a decade.
I don't think China will react negatively in any meaningful sense.
I'm not sure if Russia won't cooperate with US/NATO to get Assad out.
since in the mainstream news there have been lots of reports of ahmadinejad dropping gas on citizens.
Iraqi Kurdistan or Kurdistan Region (Kurdish: ههرێمی کوردستان, Herêmî Kurdistan; Arabic: إقليم كردستان العراق Iqlīm Kurdistān Al-‘Irāq) is an autonomous region of Iraq.[4] It borders Iran to the east, Turkey to the north, Syria to the west and the rest of Iraq to the south. The regional capital is Arbil, known in Kurdish as Hewlêr. The region is officially governed by the Kurdistan Regional Government. The establishment of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq dates back to the March 1970 autonomy agreement between the Kurdish opposition and the Iraqi government after years of heavy fighting. The Iran-Iraq war during the 1980s and the Anfal genocide campaign of the Iraqi army devastated the population and nature of Iraqi Kurdistan. Following the 1991 uprising of the Iraqi people against Saddam Hussein, many Kurds were forced to flee the country to become refugees in bordering regions of Iran and Turkey. A northern no-fly zone was established following the First Gulf War in 1991 to facilitate the return of Kurdish refugees. As Kurds continued to fight government troops, Iraqi forces finally left Kurdistan in October 1991, leaving the region to function de facto independently; however, neither of the two major Kurdish parties had at any time declared independence and Iraqi Kurdistan continues to view itself as an integral part of a united Iraq but one in which it administers its own affairs. The 2003 invasion of Iraq and the subsequent political changes led to the ratification of a new Constitution of Iraq in 2005. The new Iraqi constitution defines Iraqi Kurdistan as a federal entity of Iraq, and establishes Arabic and Kurdish as Iraq's joint official languages. Iraqi Kurdistan is a parliamentary democracy with a regional assembly that consists of 111 seats.[5] The current president is Massoud Barzani, who was initially elected in 2005 and re-elected in 2009. The three governorates of Duhok, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah comprise around 40,000 square kilometres (15,000 sq mi) and have a population of 5.3 million.
The establishment of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq dates back to the March 1970 autonomy agreement between the Kurdish opposition and the Iraqi government after years of heavy fighting. The Iran-Iraq war during the 1980s and the Anfal genocide campaign of the Iraqi army devastated the population and nature of Iraqi Kurdistan. Following the 1991 uprising of the Iraqi people against Saddam Hussein, many Kurds were forced to flee the country to become refugees in bordering regions of Iran and Turkey. A northern no-fly zone was established following the First Gulf War in 1991 to facilitate the return of Kurdish refugees. As Kurds continued to fight government troops, Iraqi forces finally left Kurdistan in October 1991, leaving the region to function de facto independently; however, neither of the two major Kurdish parties had at any time declared independence and Iraqi Kurdistan continues to view itself as an integral part of a united Iraq but one in which it administers its own affairs. The 2003 invasion of Iraq and the subsequent political changes led to the ratification of a new Constitution of Iraq in 2005. The new Iraqi constitution defines Iraqi Kurdistan as a federal entity of Iraq, and establishes Arabic and Kurdish as Iraq's joint official languages.
Iraqi Kurdistan is a parliamentary democracy with a regional assembly that consists of 111 seats.[5] The current president is Massoud Barzani, who was initially elected in 2005 and re-elected in 2009. The three governorates of Duhok, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah comprise around 40,000 square kilometres (15,000 sq mi) and have a population of 5.3 million.