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A Candy Bar Inflation Puzzle (+ hint + answers)

A candy bar maker produces a chocolate bar of a size which permits 10 nominal bites and which sells for a price of $1.00.

 Ongoing monetary supply inflation has increased the manufacturer's factor costs and forced him to decide between increasing the price to $1.10 or reducing the size to 9 nominal bites.

PART I

Considering only the effects of the manufacturer's decision, analyze and contrast both choices in terms of the directional effects on -- 

1. The purchasing power of the dollar.

2. The standard of living.

3. The cost of living.

4. The impact on the purchaser.

and decide which choice is more beneficial to society as a whole, as an unintended consequence to the manufacturer serving the interest of his shareholders.

 

PART II

What changes if the problem substitutes a bag of 10 individually-wrapped cough drops for the candy bar?

 

Hint --

 Apply the Law of  Diminishing Marginal Utility

 

Answers --

First of all, compare the alternatives of raising the price and reducing the size in terms of their effect on the consumer.

When the size of the candy bar is reduced from 10 bites to 9 bites, this is a subjective impact which is made for the application of the law of diminishing marginal utility. The reduction of one bite always is the loss of the last bite, the tenth. But we know that every successive bite has less subjective marginal utility than the previous one, and the experience of consuming a 9 bite bar may be almost imperceptably inferior to consuming the 10 bite bar. In this case, what is being purchased is a total candy bar for immediate consumption, and not a specific number of bites.

When the price of the candy bar is increased by a dime, the opposite occurs. If the consumer starts out with 12 dimes, the 11th dime is now the last dime spent, and reduces his residual from 2 dimes to 1 dime. Whereas before, the 10th and last dime spent only reduces his residual from 3 dimes to 2 dimes. Every sucessive dime spent is of higher subjective utility than the previous one.

From the above, it seems clear that reducing the size of the bar is almost always better for the consumer than increasing the price. This is because the sacrificed bite will be the least significant of all the bites, while the sacrificed dime will be the most significant of all the dimes.

This is a good point to jump ahead to Part II, where a bag of individually wrapped cough drops is substituted for the candy bar. The difference is that the bag is not consumed as a whole, but that its contents are individually consumed over time as needed. In this case there is no diminishing marginal utility with the number of drops and a cost per drop makes more sense than a cost per bite would have for the candy bar. However, the overall effect is still the same, or possibly larger. For the sacrificed tenth drop to be significant, we must assume that it would have been still available for use possibly months or years downstream, and not lost. Also, the fact that the cough drops are only used over time means that the tenth and last drop must suffer a time preference discount when reflected back to the time of purchase. With all of this in mind, it still seems likely that the consumer is better off with a reduced size product as opposed to a higher price. It should be noted that these are not universally true results, but are strongly dependent on context. A reduction in the size of a can of engine oil is largely a true reduction.

The choice of a price increase will result in :

- a loss in purchasing power for the dollar

- an increase in the cost of living

- a reduction in the standard of living

 

The choice of a size reduction will result in :

- no change in the purchasing power of the dollar

- no change in the cost of living

- a small reduction in the standard of living.

 

Finally, society as a whole benefits from the choice of a size reduction as compared to the cost increase.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Posted Thu, Oct 18 2007 5:55 AM by Don Lloyd

Comments

Bostwick wrote re: A Candy Bar Inflation Puzzle
on Thu, Oct 18 2007 12:53 PM

The manufacturer would probably raise the price on the candy bar, because its less difficult than creating smaller bars.

They would be more likely to reduce the number of cough drops in the bag.

Neither is more or less beneficial. Manufacturers must always choose how to package and market, in this case the manufacturer is simply changing its packaging because of the environment in which it sells its products has changed.

As always, consumer preference ultimately decides how it will be packaged.

Nancy wrote re: A Candy Bar Inflation Puzzle (+ hint + answers)
on Mon, Oct 29 2007 11:09 PM

Interesting.  But you still decrease the purchasing power of the dollar because you aren't getting the same quantitative product value for your dollar.  

Don Lloyd wrote re: A Candy Bar Inflation Puzzle (+ hint + answers)
on Tue, Oct 30 2007 12:03 AM

Nancy,

Interesting.  But you still decrease the purchasing power of the dollar because you aren't getting the same quantitative product value for your dollar.

Yes, but you're buying the subjective benefit of the consumption of one candy bar, not a particular weight or quantity of candy. As long as the reduction doesn't change the subjectively-determined buy/no-buy decision, the cost of living and the purchasing power of the dollar are unaffected, and only the standard of living is reduced slightly by the reduction in size of the candy bar.

Regards, Don

Al wrote re: A Candy Bar Inflation Puzzle (+ hint + answers)
on Thu, Dec 6 2007 6:49 AM

Interesting question indeed. The manufacturer would maximize his profit with the smaller bar as his costs increase was likely due to monetary inflation (rather than a short term spike in commodity price due to say, frost killing sugar beets).  We know "new money" requires time to dilute in the economy, most people are behind the curve on payroll increases (time wise), thus have a relatively fixed income.  If all prices increase, a decision must be made to not purchase something.  Given that all purchases share the same time preference as before, people will generally try to not give up anything, but will opt for the smaller candy bar, but do so without realizing their standard of living has just dropped.  Raising the price on the other hand will cause this same person to forgo eating 10 bites and eating 0 bites instead, unless of course he uses credit.

Many years ago a Hershey bar, with almonds, price was a dime (silver).   Inflation did cause a crisis, but Hershey kept the price at a dime, but produced the smaller bars we have today, at over a buck a bar. Your problem is not a theoretical one, but has a realistic history.

Don Lloyd wrote re: A Candy Bar Inflation Puzzle (+ hint + answers)
on Thu, Dec 6 2007 4:42 PM

Al,

"Many years ago a Hershey bar, with almonds, price was a dime (silver).   Inflation did cause a crisis, but Hershey kept the price at a dime, but produced the smaller bars we have today, at over a buck a bar. Your problem is not a theoretical one, but has a realistic history."

Yes. The moral should be to not blame the candy makers for producing smaller bars since they are effectively fighting the monetary supply inflation in a way that benefits both themselves and their customers.

Regards, Don