A View from the Trenches

Martin Sibileau's market letter

On yesteday's game changer

Hi everyone,

I've been kind of busy lately, to write my letter. However, I did not want to miss the chance to explicitly note that what happened yesterday, with the GLOBAL nature of the intervention in the oil market (to help someone really affected by the Brent/WTI spread) the game has totally changed. TOTALLY!

Personally, I am now entirely out of gold in my own portfolio. I am inclined to add  to the short-stocks trade, but I have a hunch that tactically today would not be the time to do so.

I am scared to see how easily a global intervention in the oil market was pulled out of nowhere and wonder what would deter governments to intervene the gold market. As the situation deteriorates and the run for liquidity spikes, I imagine the possibility of an arbitrary sale of gold.

In my mind, the macro level post FOMC press conference was $1,540. The sell off after that was totally unwarranted and the lack of information tells me somebody bigger than me knows something I obviously don't.

Any thoughts?

MS.

Comments

Friedrich Dominicus said:

I wrote about the gold market some years ago. I would not be suprised to see actions of the central banks. But I can assure you also. Even with the oil they run short of supply and then they will have to re-buy... So I don't think we have worry too much...

# June 24, 2011 10:34 AM