Nevada and the Markets

I have developed the habit of watching gold after every primary, until Super Tuesday anyway. This isn't hard, since i watch gold every day. I believe that gold will fall on good news for Paul - that is, a better than expected finish, and rise on bad news. After Iowa and New Hampshire, gold went up sharply, confirming my hypothesis. Today, gold is sharply down, reflecting, I think, that smart money is betting that Nevada was more meaningful than South Carolina. I don't think people are selling on good news for Paul, but I do think that many will hold off on buying when it looks like Ron is doing well. Any thoughts?

First, I don't think Paul is a significant factor in gold prices. People may be cheering for him but IEM still has "Other" (including Paul) trading at 1.3 cents for a $1 payout. http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html His odds are slim, to say the least.

 

Second, if he was a big factor, wouldn't a Paul presidency lead to skyrocketing gold prices, as there would be bigger demand for gold as money?