Is WW3 within the next 20 years apodictically certain? What are the factors involved?
All the major wars in the 20th century or at least despotic regimes seem to follow from a period of inflation, political hysteria, and protectionism. I know correlation doesn't prove causation, but maybe there's a causal relationship here. I just can't point it out.
There is causation. Protectionism makes the other country valueless to us. Even worse, if we cant trade with outside countries, than to trade more we have to incorporate countries, thus go to war.
The thing with high inflation is that perhaps a fiat currency at some point just looses convertibility with ‘hard’ currencies and as such shits all trade, again making war profitable.
Yet I would not be so sure that WW3 is coming. Countries have nukes nowadays, and the cost of a war would be far, far to high. what we could see are civil wars of disgregation, mostly in Europe and perhaps in the US too. But just a guess.
Nothing.
/thread
War cannot be seen as apodictically certain at any given point. We can be apodictically certain that individuals will make choices that maximize their happiness, but at this moment we cannot understand those hypothetical future decisions and the definitions of happiness that the actors involved in the decision making process will have. The ends aimed at by future individuals are not able to be understood in the present and the means chosen to attain those ends will depend on the individuals involved in the decision making process. What we can be apodictically certain of though is that violence will continue to be a fact of human existence until a point is arrived at where all individuals believe that non-violent means of human interaction present more effective methods of attaining their desired ends.
As for the factors involved in an examination of the likelihood of World War III there is a very pertinent question that must be answered first. What conflict would constitute World War III, or more practically put, define World War III.
there must have been some sort of error I meant to reply to a different thread