Ok, first off, I don't know the equation for solving the problem in advance; this is more of a discussion to determine it.
In any event, what is the most likely equation to determine the time when the next drop will occur?
http://tf2stats.net/wrenches
Ignore the numbers 21 and below; only 22 and above matter.
Therefore, when will the next drop occur?
I've been attempting to find a meaningful pattern, but I'm coming up blank.
Resident Christian Anarcho-Capitalist.
Um, what is this? Some kind of periodic video game server event?
Is there any hint there's a comprehensible mathematical pattern and not simply a pseudorandom number generator or human intervention controlling it? I don't see a pattern.
One factor might be something like variations in bandwidth consumption or number of players at particular times of the day.
well, it's compounded by the fact a number were accurately predicting the times down to the second for a little while, but all that's disappeared.
The number of items occuring for each wrench event varies from about 11 to 60 per second, with the highest ratio occuring around July 5th 4:30 PM. Lots of people of work playing then?
I see no pattern in the times demarcating the wrenches.The 20th order forward differences show nothing.
>well, it's compounded by the fact a number were accurately predicting the times down to the second for a little while, but all that's disappeared.
No clue why, maybe there is a pseudorandom generator whose output was reproduced, but the generator was since reseeded.
I might add that there's two wrenches (I'm not sure which ones) that were manually interfered with.