Is this a serious theory?
The One Hundred and Fifty-Two Year US Equity Great Second Fractal Cataclysmic Collapse: 5 March 2010: A Fractal Replica of 11 October 2007?
Though the Federal Reserve has grossly distorted the normal activity of supply and demand in the debt markets, buying over ten months 300 billion dollars of US treasuries ex nihilo, the equivalent entire annual quantity normally available for equity speculation and money based structural support, a review of two years of readily available weekly and monthly trading valuation patterns for the US CRB and composite indices of US , European, and Japanese equities, nevertheless, easily demonstrates currently occurring saturation areas along the tops of the money supply based asset valuation trading curves.
Will money entering and exiting at these markets’ saturation areas occur nonlinearly and predictably according the quantum principles of saturation macroeconomics?
For the saturation macroeconomist/scientist who follows the simple mathematical quantum fractal patterns, the next three weeks in March 2010 will be among the most interesting days and weeks of asset valuation/fractal time unit observation. A spectacular 152 year nonlinear event is expected to occur in the third week of the next three week trading period. March 2010 is the 93 month of a 46/92 :: x/2x monthly pattern starting in October 1998 which began a major extension of the 70/140 year first and second fractal series for United States equity equivalents with extensional successive debt-money bubbles in sequentially the PC-internet industry, the real estate-financial industry, and now the central bankng industry.
Expected is the cataclysmic (beyond October 1987) nonlinear asset (equity and commodity ) devolution trading event that will define and validate the science of Saturation Macroeconomics.
The 93 month second fractal is made of a 14/35/28/19 of 21 month ideal x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series. March, April, and May represent the terminal three months of the 19,20, and 21st month ideal fourth fractal. . The 28/19 third and fourth fractals of the 14/35/28/19 of 21month series is configured in a 34/84/68 week fractal with the Wilshire apogee at 11873 on 11 February 2010 of the third fractal’s 2x or 68th week progression.
March 2010’s Wilshire has two base fractals of 22-23 weeks and 19 weeks starting in October 2008 and March 2009 respectively. The ideal weekly counts of the second fractals to these two base fractals are 22-23/54 of 57 weeks and 19/35 of 38 weeks respectively.
For aurophiles, an interpolated 11/28/22/14 of 17 week fractal (x/2.5x/2x/1.5x) matches the Wilshire’s weekly end point and the CRB’s similar weekly end point.
A reflexic ideal 20/50/40 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal allowed the science of saturation macroeconomics to exactly and prospectively predict October 2007 as the Wilshire’s nominal high occurring on day 40 of the third fractal.
5 March 2010 showed minutely gaps much like 11 October 2007. 5 March 2010 represented the 20th day of the third fractal of a 10/25/20 :: 2x/2.5x/2x reflexic fractal series (a 0.5 time length exact fractal proportionality of the 11 October 2007 series). Unlike 11 October 2007 which ended(as predicted) near the low of the day, 5 March ended near the high which suggests that a 10/25/25 day or x/2.5x/2.5x extension is possible.
The 46/93 month or 70/152 year daily fractal decay series could be 15-16//(10/25//20/15 ) days :: y//x/2.5x//2x/1.5x which elegantly contains both the 10/25/20-25 possible extension and the mathematical 10/25/20/15 day classic 4 phase series and all interpoated in a 15-16/34/34 days or y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal.
The possible terminal fractal daily pathway:
From 5 March 2010 a 3/7-8/6-7 day decay series for the Wilshire would encapsulate the next 14 trading day period. Two days down would complete the first three day first fractal. A surge for three days might complete a x/2.5x/2.5x :: 10/25/25 day final saturation high with lateral movement in a tight trading range with a low for the second fractal in 5 additional trading days. A final lower high for the third fractal in 3 to 5 days with a massive nonlinear event on the 13th and/or14th day of this 3/7-8/6-7 series.
The US transportation index, which led the US equities into the 2002-2007 valuation expansion, disproportionally benefited from the dynamics of a nonsustainable system whereby American paper (debt) was exchanged for transported and distributed tangible Asian goods. With China’s realization that the US Central Bank(the third money-debt expansion element of the post 1998 140 year second fractal extension)can create money-debt-paper at will backed by no real economic activity and that America’s consumers are debt saturated, the lower low gapped area in the transportation index that occurred between 26 and 29 September 2008 from 2160.08 and 2156.09 will not be filled.
More seriously, and just as a general comment, I think it's important to stress to people that they should write as clearly as possible. Generally speaking, the less jargon the better.
sounds like a parody to me
My humble blog
It's easy to refute an argument if you first misrepresent it. William Keizer
Or pure crankery.
Lets suppose it was a serious post and say the poster wrote in good will; what could we say about it?
Fractals are one way of looking at the variability of stock price price differences in a time series.
But that post made little sense, assuming it was serious. Is the guy referring to the fractal dimension of the statistical model he was using? If so, then what is the point of listing a whole list of fractal dimensions? Is he listing the alpha in the stable paretian model?
Fractal literature is the only good thing to come out statistical economics, because it is the only (statistical) literature that accepts that human action is unique and infinitely variable. Rothbard approved of it too.
But the sort of post referred to in this thread is very difficult to make sense of, because it says nothing about the model used (assuming the poster had a model and didn't just post gibberish...)
Jonathan M. F. Catalán: Is this a serious theory?
For what it's worth, Gary Lammert (the Fractalist) replied to Roger Garrison way back in 2005 (scroll down to see Lammert's reply).
Google search found this "economic simulator" by a Ben Tamari. Here is the home page. Seems to be related to Lammert's fractal-ism and is a fusion of economics and geometry. Looks like they have convinced themselves that the business cycle is a function of nature and can be explained with fractals / fractal geometry(?). I think they should study human action instead.
"The market is a process." - Ludwig von Mises, as related by Israel Kirzner. "Capital formation is a beautiful thing" - Chloe732.
So is this just a more jargon-y version of the Kondratieff cycle nonsense or what?
This guys writings make my eyes bleed, so that was all I could pick out through the red haze.
To the extent that the economy is fractal, it is becaused it is characterized by randomly scaled events that feed back on themselves. This is the theory supported by Nassim N. Taleb. The theory above is gibberish nonsense.
The fallacies of intellectual communism, a compilation - On the nature of power
Some of those sentences just didn't make sense. It looked more like something that comes out of those "rant generators". I think it is a purity. I made that conclusion when I saw the word "quantum" being used to discuss economics.
Can’t remember the title now, but there was a movie about a guy using his fractal theory to predict the stock market. There is also “Pi” with a largely similar plot but with a religious twist. What both these movies made me ask myself is: if such a theory is out there, go and make money you fools (or usher about the Messianic era)! Of course in real life no mathematician ever became rich J
"Seems to be related to Lammert's fractal-ism and is a fusion of economics and geometry."
My page www.ecometry.biz/stocks is related to Pappus's theorem and not to fractals.
My page www.ecometry.biz/simulator is related to attractor and not to fractals, although some attractors have fractals character.
My page www.ecometry.biz/ecometry is indeed macroeconomics with flavor of geometry.
Ben Tamari
And then there is Martin Armstrong with his economic confidence cycle. I have no idea how much weight to give these "models" but at least the proponents of them tend to like free markets and come to the conclusion that gov. intervention fails in the end. Prechter would be another one with his Elliot wave
Even if the models only truism is that every market eventually corrects, its a big improvement on the plateau that most people implicitly buy into.
I think if those that want to introduce analogies from chaos theory into economics are serious, they should very carefully study economic calculation and the economic calculation problem. I believe some meaningful concepts can be derived using thought experiments analysing optimisation problems for a socialist planner, and perhaps elaborated and generalised to better study the perturbative effects on the business cycle. Only if their concepts are directly rooted in the category of action will they have any relevance.
Aside of that, I think much of this, along with econophysics is a pretty dismal excercise in curve fitting.
"When the King is far the people are happy." Chinese proverb
For Alexander Zinoviev and the free market there is a shared delight:
"Where there are problems there is life."
There is a highly elegant order to the macroeconomic system. This is one of the great observational discoveries of the 21st century.
The Saturated Macroeconomy's Mathematically Perfect Predictable Albino Black Swan occurring 26 April 2011 The simple math defining the operating self-balancing characteristics of Earth's Small Macroeconomic Universe. Why did Google began its nonlinear descent 6 days earlier than the Wilshire? The macroeconomy and its integrated debt dependent, asset supply and asset valuation dependent, job and wage interdependent, asset derivative equity, bond, commodity and currency elements is a highly ordered and bounded system. The macroeconomy's asset valuations conform to highly ordered quantum fractal patterns that confer on the the macroeconomy the characteristics of a hard science. There are only 2 to 3 trading days left in the Wilshire's 12 August 1982 - 11 October 1990 99/247.5 month x/2.5x fractal. There is an average of 21 trading days per month. The 99 month base fractal represents 2079 trading days: 2158 trading days + 21 trading days integrated from the preceding month. The 2.5x second window has an expected 5197.5 trading days. 11-12 April 2011 represented the 247 month conclusion of a 247.5 month and 5187-88th trading day of the predicted maximum 5197.5 day 2.5x second fractal. Monday 25 April 2011 represents the 5196th day with a 1.5 day final window to complete expected historical nonlinearity. Within the final 3 days and after the final saturation day on 25 April 2011 with the Dow expected to have a nonlinear gap to a 3 year high and ending on the the low of the day, the world will see its greatest nonlinear crash of equity and commodity valuation. The Wilshire will have a similar gapped higher minutely opening pattern but will not exceed its 18 February 2011, the secondary high to its predicted 11 October 2007 nominal high The Macroeconomy's Quantum Fractal patterns. (From the 2005 Main Page of the Economic Fractalist http://www.economicfractalist.com/ )
Both the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units.
The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. 2005 'The ideal growth (and decay) fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. 'Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal." From the Wilshire's 6 May flash crash: 12/30/24/19 days :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x From the 6 May 2010 flash crash a caricatured 12/30/24/19 day or 82 day four phase x/2.5x/2x/1.6x series can be observed ending on 31 August 2010. The actual nodal lows and highs were 14/27/24/20 days with a low on day 12 of the first fractal, a lower low on day 14 pointing to a lower low second fractal ending on day 27 or 1 July 2010 (or day 29 of a 12/29 fractal) with a higher low on day 30 pointing to the subsequent valuation rise to day 24 of the third fractal and finally to a higher low on day 19 or 31 August 2010 of the fourth fractal. This 6 May 2010 to 31 August 2010 12/30/24/19 day or 82 day four phase growth and decay fractal series serves as the base fractal for maximum growth on 2x: 184 days series occurring on 25 April 2011(Good Friday 22 April was a trading holiday. This final growth day is within 1-2 days of the very terminal portion of a maximum 5197.5 :: 2.5x to the 2158 day 12 Aug82 to 11 Oct base. 'The ideal growth (and decay) fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. 'Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal." "A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x." The 6 May 2010 flash crash was itself contained within the third 12 day subfractal of a 31 March 2010 6/15/12/9 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal and was at the 221 day second fractal terminal nonlinear 2x-2.5x end of the 6 March 2009 88/221 day :: x/2.5x fractal with two trading days of the 221 days half trading days. 6 May 2010 was the 208th day of the 221 day second fractal sequence. SYNCHRONIZED SECOND FRACTALS "A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x." As of 24 April 2011 1695 93/222 years In the terminal 2nd fractal 2x-2.5x window 1788 70/153 years In the terminal 2nd fractal 2x-2.5x window 1982 99/247 months In the very extreme 2nd fractal 2x-2.5x window Oct 1998 50/103 months In the terminal 2x-2.5x 2nd fractal window 10 Oct 2008 185/453 days In the extreme terminal 2nd fractal window 6 May 2010 82/163 days (25 April is the 2x 164th day (and expected final high for the DJIA) 16 Mar 2011 9.5/18 days 25 April is day 2x or 19 of 9.5/19 days and the expected final high for the DJIA 25 April 2011 will be the final high the DJIA, ideally characterized by a minutely opening gap to a nonlinear higher high and ending on the low of the day. Why 18 February 2011 was the final high for the Wilshire? The Fibonacci saturation ratio : 1.618 Both the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units. Fibonacci ratios of 0.6 and 1.6 characterize maximum growth and decay in a maximally saturated range bound system. The 4th decay fractal time ratio is ideally 1.6x of the base : x/2.5x/2x/1.6x. The Wilshire is such a saturated system. the nodal of the 52 second week fractal from to 8 July 2009 to 1 July 2010 spanned 247 days. The ideal base fractal x of a 2.5x : 249 day fractal would be 99.6 days. 1.618 x of this base fractal is161.1 days. For the Wilshire 18 February 2011 was the 162th day after the second fractal low on 1 July 2010. The Wilshire represents all US equities. It is supported by the total speculative available wealth. The 1.618x third fractal 100/249/162: x/2.5x/1.6x 18 February 2011 will not be exceeded. The 2x 200 day of the third fractal 100/249/200 lies as the 7th midpoint day between the Wilshire's 18 February secondary averge high on 6 April 2011 and the expected final secondary high on 25 April 2011. Why did GOOGLE collapse 6 days before the Wilshire's 26 April collapse? Google's 10 October 2008's base fractal of 31/70/84 days was 2-4 days shorter than the Wilshire's 31/70/86-88 day base fractal. The equity and commodity collapse on 26 April 2011 will be the greatest in historical. Unprecedented nonlinearity can be explained in the simple nonstochastic saturation macroeconomic mathematical quantum fractal models described above and in 2005 The Economic Fractalist. Just like the ordered connectivity among energy particles in physical energy space universe and descriptive mathematical models, there is connectivity between the asset valuation parts of the macroeconomic universe. Time ordered growth and decay and interconnectivity of the macroeconomic system may have analogous time ordered fractal growth and decay and connectivity of subatomic energy particles and larger mass-energy elements in the energy space universe.
Did you just say fractals can lead to hard science? When have they ever?
Whenever I see talk of fractals and science together, it seems like a bunch of post-hoc rationalizations.
In States a fresh law is looked upon as a remedy for evil. Instead of themselves altering what is bad, people begin by demanding a law to alter it. ... In short, a law everywhere and for everything!
~Peter Kropotkin
fractals are intriguing mathematical objects. the above post by the fractal dude, is utter gibberish.
Where there is no property there is no justice; a proposition as certain as any demonstration in Euclid
Fools! not to see that what they madly desire would be a calamity to them as no hands but their own could bring